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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 204  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Everything is positive when it comes to Lincecum. If he can avoid injury, he'll finish the year among the league leaders in Wins, ERA, Strikeouts and WHIP. 18-0-2.60-1.05-260 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Maybe he takes the foot off the pedal now that he's been paid. His only downside seems to be exclusively speculative. 13-0-2.90-1.15-240 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Lincecum will be the first pitcher to come off the board come draft day. While I don't normally recommend pitchers this high, you'll be off to a huge head start in pitching by adding Lincecum. Tiny Tim will help you dominate across every pitching category (expect saves of course) and should be a threat to the NL triple crown. 15-0-2.70-1.10-255 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 12 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 206 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Halladay moves from the rebuilding Blue Jays to the two-time World Series champion Phillies and from facing the DH to facing the pitcher. Halladay has been a terrific source of strikeouts the past two seasons as well as wins and if anything he is in a better position to contribute there. Much has been said about the benefits of strike-out type starters moving from the AL to the NL, which should more than cancel out any negative effects of moving to such a hitter friendly environment. In addition, Halladay replaces such unfriendly destinations as Fenway and Yankee Stadium with more comfortable division match-ups in Florida and Citi-field. 20-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Halladay turns 33 in May and has a history of arm problems (albeit not recently). That combined with his heavy workload over the past four seasons (232+IP per season) should give one some caution. The other "issue" with Halladay is whether he will be the 5.5 K/9 pitcher of 2006 and 2007 or the 7.5+ pitcher of the last two seasons. The difference being a whopping 60 strikeouts over 230 IP. There's no real reason to think that facing the pitcher he would fall back, but it would not be at all a surprise were he to only put in 200-210 innings in which case his strikeout total might be correspondingly lower. 15-0-3.40-1.20-165 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
It's numerically true that players in the "old days" didn't stay with a single team their entire career much more than they do now, but it certainly feels that way when a player like Halladay moves on. The one-time face of the Blue Jays franchise is now a Philly, with a club coming off two straight World Series appearances. If there's any justice in the world, the Phillies will make it three years in a row and give Doc a shot at the title. The world being what it is, the Jays will beat the Astros this season.
Halladay has been so good over the past two seasons that even with the workload (too much of it) and age on his arm, it's hard not to give him a thumbs up going forward. Much of the bump we would give him for facing the pitcher is given back for the park and his age, but that's still awfully good. We expect him to eat innings, which will give his owners strikeouts and wins. 18-0-3.10-1.15-190 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 21 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 114 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The King will chip in elite totals in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and wins. There are very few pitchers who deliver the fantasy impact of Felix Hernandez. 20-0-2.70-1.15-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Conditioning. Hernandez looks like he's on some sort of Mo Vaughn/David Wells diet. It didn't affect his performance last year, but it's always a concern. 15-0-3.10-1.25-190 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Hernandez had a dominant 2009. If it weren't for the God-like efforts of Zack Greinke, he would have been a unanimous choice for the Cy Young. The scary part? He's only 23, and the best is yet to come. Place 'The King' at the top of your AL draft boards -- yes, even ahead of Greinke. 18-0-2.90-1.20-200 in 220 IP
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| Recommended Draft Position: 24 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 167 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Greinke may not reach the levels of a 2.16 ERA again, but even a slight drop off will still have him among the league's best fantasy pitchers. 18-0-2.60-1.10-240 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
His biggest negative is what he did last season. He's currently going for too much in drafts, leaving comparable pitchers to be taken at a better value. 13-0-3.30-1.30-200 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Greinke has come a long way in his 6 seasons, from being a 21 year old rookie in 2004 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, to a horrible sophomore campaign which saw him post a 5-17 record, 5.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, to almost being completely out of baseball in '06 with personal issues, and then coming back to pitch two very good seasons in 2007 and in 2008 when he went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 183 K in 202 IP. Then he put it all together for one of the best fantasy seasons in recent memory, winning the CY Young in the process. Because of this, Greinke will be way over-valued, as you'll be paying for last season's numbers that he may have trouble replicating. He'll be fine as your fantasy ace, but there's better value to be had. 15-0-3.00-1.20-225 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 27 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 129 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
CC's first year with the Yanks would have to qualify as a success. After all, he won 19 games and was amongst the AL leaders in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. Pitching for the World Champs guarantees close to twenty wins again, and 200 strikeouts is well within reach for CC. 20-0-3.10-1.10-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The move from the NL to AL caused CC's numbers to go from ridiculous in 2008 to just really good in 2009. He saw his ERA and WHIP rise and his strikeout total dip in 2009. Expect numbers more like his 2009 totals than his incredible 2008. Pitching in the AL is just that much more difficult than pitching in the NL. 15-0-3.50-1.20-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
CC still qualifies as a fantasy ace and is about as reliable as they come. As long as you don't go wild and chase the numbers he put up with the Brewers, CC will make you happy in 2010. 20-0-3.35-1.15-205 in 235 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 33 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 201 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Haren is an elite source of ERA, K and WHIP. His ratios can stabilize your totals if you want to stream pitchers through your line-up. 18-0-3.10-1.05-215 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Aside from his usual second-half drop-off, Haren is very unlucky when it comes to getting wins. Getting shoddy support from an anemic Diamondbacks offense doesn't help either. He's never eclipsed 16 wins in a season, despite the numbers of a 20-game winner. 13-0-3.30-1.15-200 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Dan Haren is a roto king. He really does it all -- at least pre-All-Star break. His high inning total allows his tremendous ratios (ERA & WHIP) to be more valuable, and his 8.75 K/9 is among the league leaders. The best strategy with Haren would be to expend a high draft pick on him, and then trade him when he's named to the All-star team. His post-break number have plunged for three consecutive years. While he still turns in some good performances, what you can get for him mid-way will be worth more than keeping him. 15-0-3.20-1.10-210 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 40 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 206 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Santana is only 31, and prior to the elbow woes retuning, he was en route to his best season since his tenure with Minnesota. Through May, Santana had struck out 86 batters in 66 innings with an ERA below 2.00. He's not the same thrower he was as a kid in Minnie, but he's clearly still a top pitcher when healthy. Even after the elbow started acting up, Santana was still, except for a couple of starts in June, a perfectly usable fantasy pitcher. Santana's stuff is so good that he was able to turn from a devastating strikeout style (withstanding 70%+ fly balls plus line drives) to a more ground ball oriented approach as the wheels didn't quite come off in July and August.
Santana is healthy, despite a report of Santana icing down his elbow (as pitchers do after workouts) causing his ADP to drop through the floor. Citi is a great field for Santana, as it depressed the one negative of the fly ball style -- the home run. Even in an "off" year, Santana posted a 2.43-1.10 in Citi, and that's not too bad, I would say. 18-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Santana was a real trooper last season, pitching with an obvious arm problem for a couple of months before shutting it down as the Mets finally succumbed to the freakish number of injuries. The real concern here remains health. After posting six straight seasons with K rates well over a K an inning, but 230 IP each year, Santana moved to the NL, where one could expect that facing the pitcher, he would have even more success. He was very good of course, but the K rate dropped below 8 (often a sign of injury or coming injury) and, well, here we are. 10-0-3.75-1.25-130 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
In 2001, Pedro Martinez experienced arm woes and was only able to tally 116+ IP. In the process, he threw up some freakish strikeout totals over the first two months of the season -- 121 K in 81 IP, which was well over his career rate. June went to hell and, unlike Santana, Pete was unable to continue much farther, making four starts in June and then a handful at the end of the year. It's eerily familiar to Santana's situation last season (Pedro was 29, Santana 30 coming into last season) with years of overuse, an initial period of extreme strikeouts (see positives), and then injury.
The good news is that Pedro came back the following year to post one of his top two or three years, going 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 239 strikeouts. You'll want to watch Johan's fly ball rates (in this case going down probably being an indication that he is switching pitches to save his arm), but there's every precedent here for excellence.
Although there are significant questions in the bullpen, and defensive metrics distinctly do not like this team (Jason Bay is rated as one of the worst outfielders, and even David Wright, who has such a good reputation, showed up poorly on the defensive metrics in 2009), there's every indication Santana will perform in this park. Moderate your bid, but he is currently going at a bargain price for his potential. 15-0-3.20-1.15-210 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 46 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 117 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Verlander will provide an elite source of strikeouts. His durability allows him to go deep into games, which gives him more opportunities to mow opponents down. His ERA and WHIP will be slightly above average, but it's unlikely he'll finish among the league leaders. 18-0-3.50-1.15-230 in 240 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Verlander is a true fireballer, but, on a Tigers team that looks like it will take a step back in 2010, it is unlikely that he will make a huge impact in anything outside of strikeouts. Not what you want from a fantasy ace. 13-0-3.90-1.30-190 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Verlander was on top of his game in 2009, going 19-9 with a league-high 269 strikeouts. He will be drafted as a fantasy ace, but won't give you the overall numbers of one. Look for better value a few rounds later (e.g. Adam Wainwright or Cliff Lee). 15-0-3.70-1.20-220 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 45 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 160 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Wainwright enjoyed the best year of his career in 2009, setting career highs in wins and strikeouts, while posting the best ERA of his career. He clearly is a a top level ace. At only 28, he has a number of Cy Young quality years ahead of him. 18-0-2.90-1.20-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Despite the drop in ERA last season, Wanwight's WHIP climbed from 1.18 in 2008 to 1.21 last season. Usually WHIP and ERA travel up or down together, not in opposite directions, so there is reason to believe that a jump in his ERA is likely in 2010. 15-0-3.40-1.30-180 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Wainwright is a legit fantasy ace. He is in his prime, and while it may be asking too much for him to repeat his 2.63 ERA from 2010, another fantastic season can all but be assured. He tends to get less attenition that some of the other fantasy aces, making him an ever better target on draft day. 18-0-3.10-1.25-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 54 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 93 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
He's young, already has two great seasons, pitches for one of the best teams in baseball, and collects strikeouts like Tiger collects mistresses. What's not to like? Lester is becoming one baseball's elite starting pitchers. 18-0-3.25-1.18-230 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Pitching in the AL East is never a walk on the beach, even if you don't have to pitch against the Red Sox. This fact will prevent him from being able to post an ERA in the low 3.00s. Somewhere between 3.25 and 3.50 is more appropriate. 15-0-3.50-1.25-200 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Lester has passed teammate Josh Beckett as the Red Sox's ace, and has established himself as a fantasy ace as well. He's just 26, and has a lot of great years ahead of him. Pitching in Boston will provide the run support needed to win plenty of games. 18-0-3.30-1.20-220 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 60 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 124 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lee will end the year among the league leaders in WHIP and ERA, which gives you opportunity to chase Wins and K elsewhere. The ratios are much harder to find on the waiver wire, and Lee is a specialist. 18-0-3.20-1.18-180 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
He's getting older, and pitching at Safeco will entice Lee to pitch to contact, which could lead to a decline in strikeouts. 15-0-3.50-1.30-150 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Pitching at Safeco, with baseball's best defense behind him, will increase Lee's already sterling numbers. The only chink in his armor is that his K/9 rate (7.04), although nothing to sneeze at, is nowhere near his dominance in WHIP and ERA. Lee will produce number one value, at a second tier price. 18-0-3.30-1.20-170 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 67 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 159 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Johnson had a breakout campaign in 2009, winning 15 games while racking up a 3.23 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 209 innings of work. The big right-hander with the upper-90s heat possesses some of the nastiest stuff in baseball and should post very strong numbers this season if he can remain healthy. 18-0-3.00-1.10-210 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Ah yes, the "if he can remain healthy" disclaimer. Fact is, last season marked the first time Johnson has eclipsed 157 innings in his four-year career, and he missed big chunks of the '07 and '08 campaigns due to injuries. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in '07, and returned to action just 11 months later. Johnson's stuff isn't in doubt, but his ability to stay out there and throw it certainly should be. 8-0-3.50-1.30-125 in 145 IP |
Analysis:
Johnson is something of a health risk, but his enormous upside and relative bargain price make him a pitcher worth targeting once the big names are off the board. Look for Josh as your No. 2 Fantasy starter in your draft's middle rounds, but don't be surprised if he ends up as your No. 1 guy by the end of the season. 15-0-3.30-1.20-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 68 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 193 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Quite simply, Carpenter is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy. Few others can match the ERA and WHIP he will post, and he will win plenty of games pitching for one of the better teams in baseball, the Cards. His upside is huge, if he can stay healthy. 18-0-2.80-1.00-150 in 200 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Carpenter turns 35 in April, and he missed nearly all of 2007 and 2008 with injuries. He was great last year, but his body is too worn down to expect him to last through a full season even relatively. Lastly, he doesn't strikeout batters at the rate other elite options do, meaning even if he is healthy, his strikeouts total won't be exceptional. 13-0-3.20-1.15-110 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
Although he has been eclipsed by teammate Adam Wainwright in the fantasy game, Carpenter still ranks as the Cards ace, and with good reason. When healthy he is the better pitcher... when healthy. Carpenter ranks as one of the biggest injury risks in baseball but could pay off huge if you're willing to take the risk. Right now (Friday, February 19th, 2010 at 10:48 AM EST), Carpenter is healthy. Of course, that could all change before the top of the hour. 15-0-3.00-1.08-140 in 180 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 69 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 196 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
In trying to predict AL/NL switches for pitchers, there are a couple of things to keep in mind. Strikeout-types will tend to benefit more from facing the pitchers in the NL, and pitchers who don't give up hits will suffer less moving to the junior circuit. Although Peavy is a fine strikeout pitcher, the main reason he succeeds is that he doesn't allow hits -- 7.72/9 for his career. He should continue to be one of the top pitchers in baseball.
Peavy, like most pitchers, gives up more home runs outside of Petco than in, but aside from 2008, the split has been pretty mild and his overall rates outside of Petco are well above league average in any case. Further, Peavy's 3.45 ERA last season was almost entirely a fluke. His WHIP and HR rates were better than 2008 when he posted a 2.85. Peavy's numbers should translate very well from the NL into the AL. 18-0-2.90-1.05-200 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The percentage call on Peavy would be to take last year's results and round up due to the move to AL and from a run-sucking vortex like Petco into a moderately healthy hitter's park. Even if he doesn't give up hits, This Jake isn't facing the pitcher, and that means at least 0.5 fewer K's per start, so perhaps 15 or 16 fewer then That Jake if he can remain healthy the bulk of the season. So That 215 K Peavy becomes This 200 K Peavy, and while still good, in combination with the expected hit on ERA and WHIP, that puts him down to the next tier. 15-0-3.30-1.15-175 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
This Jake plays in a hitters park facing the DH and That Jake played in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks ever. But This Jake still doesn't give up hits, is still stingy with the long ball (far better than average even on the road), and is likely to K close to 9/9 even without facing the pitcher. Plus, he's playing on a better team.
That's not to say you want to spend as if he was Tim Lincecum, nor expect that he will perform that way -- but I'd take him before a closer or a power challenged OF (without balancing speed). 18-0-3.00-1.05-195 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 82 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 110 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Beckett bucked the trend of having a good season every other year in 2009 when he posted numbers similar to his 2008 totals. He has developed into a reliable contributor across the board and has the upside to outproduce his draft position/auction price. 18-0-3.50-1.15-210 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Beckett is prone to having down seasons. While he will help you in all categories, he will not post an elite level ERA. Beckett has incredible stuff but can be an enigma at times. 15-0-3.90-1.25-185 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Beckett is no longer the Red Sox' ace and qualifies as a borderline fantasy ace as well. He is a reliable source of wins and strikeouts, and low walk totals keep his WHIP low. His ERA will be good but not spectacular. I'd much rather target someone like Beckett coming off of a solid season than some of the other starters with similarly perceived value, like Javy Vazquez. 18-0-3.70-1.20-200 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 81 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 117 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
In 2009 with the Braves, 15-0-2.88-1.03-238. Enough said. 18-0-4.05-1.25-200 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
In 2004 with the Yanks, 14-0-4.91-1.29-150. Pitching in the AL and in the pressure of the Bronx makes all the difference. Enough said. 13-0-4.55-1.35-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Place your hands behind your head, and step away from the Javy Vazquez. Vazquez has absolutely no chance of reproducing his 2009 success back with the Yankees in the AL in 2010. I don't expect him to be as bad as he was in 2004 with the Yankees, but he be a whole lot better either. Let someone else make the poor investment. 15-0-4.35-1.30-195 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 80 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 169 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
It was well-known last spring that Hanson was a great prospect, but the future became "now" in a hurry, as the Braves' wunderkind racked up 11 wins, posted a 2.89 ERA and fanned 116 hitters in 127.2 innings pitched. Hanson's ceiling is enormous, and there's no reason to believe that he won't build on his '09 success and become one of baseball's top hurlers in 2010. 18-0-2.95-1.15-190 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Simmer down now, Tigger -- before you go off to engrave his plaque for Cooperstown, let's keep in mind that Hanson has thrown just over a half season's worth of innings in the bigs. Hitters will invariably adjust to him, and unless he adapts in kind, he'll struggle. Baseball history is littered with hot-shot young pitchers who started off like a house afire, and ended up the same way -- a smoldering pile of ashes. Hanson's talented, but until he shows his stuff for at least a full season it's hard to buy in on the whole "ace" thing. 13-0-3.45-1.30-145 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
Hanson looks like a special talent, and this may be the last year that he'll be available at less than a premium price. 15-0-3.25-1.20-170 in 195 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 156 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Although pitchers progress at different rates than hitters, Hamels is well on the good side of the development curve at age 26. Despite the rise in hit rates and ERA (see negatives) he was probably at least as good a pitcher in 2009 as he was in 2008 despite getting a slow start... Much has been made of Hamel's decline in strikeout rates each season prior to 2009, but if we view his 9.86 K/9 in 1332+ IP, his rookie season as the outlier, the following numbers 8.69, 7.76, 7.81 look stable... Oddly, Hamels fared much better in the hitting-friendly Citizens Bank park that on the road. We would expect that to turn around as it was in 2008 (see negatives re: his 2008 unearned runs at home)... If Hamels is healthy, you can expect big things from the lefty. 18-0-3.40-1.15-205 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The contrast between Hamels' 2008 and and 2009 is less than it appears. Although it is true that his in-play rates were quite a lot worse in 2009 (BABIP of .325 vs. 2008's .270) the main issue here is that the home scorers decided to give Cole 8 unearned runs (vs. 3 on the road) in 2008 and a total of only 2 (1 each home and road) in 2009. Almost every other secondary number was the same or even slightly better (strikeout and walk rates, home run rates) in 2009. Like so many BABIP observations, this one turns out to be so much vapour when you examine the splits and see the line drive rates he put up while pitching early in the season having missed much of spring training... The bad news here is that Hamels is probably closer to the pitcher he was in 2009 than 2008. The good news is that that really isn't too bad, and he is reported to be healthy and on schedule to start the season. 13-0-3.80-1.25-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Cole Hamels has been a solid fantasy starting pitcher on a solid team. Expect to see his hit rates and road statistics stabilize and for the lefty to put in more than 200 IP. 18-0-3.50-1.20-200 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 91 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 168 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Dominating pitcher whose increased strikeout rate is perfectly in line with his minor league numbers. Limits hits and can survive elevated walk rates. Appears to be fully healthy and primed to become a Cy Young candidate. 20-0-3.00-1.05-240 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Theres' nothing to regress to. So if Gallardo fail it will be because of injuries. The worst that could be said is a return to his excellent 2009 levels. 13-0-3.73-1.31-204 in 185 IP |
Analysis:
Gallardo is a star. He was 23 last season and excelled while walking well over four a game. The only way you can do that is the way Gallardo did, which is to miss bats with 204 strikeouts and 150 hits over 185+ innings. Unlike pitchers like Jonathan Sanchez or Oliver Perez who become usable when they walk a few less, Gallardo was nearly a fantasy rotation anchor while he was walking a career high. Now watch what happens when he heads back to the 3.01 he was doing before last season. 18-0-3.15-1.10-220 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 89 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 203 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Kershaw was striking out people at 10+ a game as a 19 year old in double-A. His strikeout rate is real. He's tremendously hard to hit -- only 119 hits in 171 innings pitched -- so despite walking 4.79 per 9, he still was able to manage a healthy 1.23 WHIP. His minor league records suggest both these are real... and he's all of 22 years old in March. Although he cut his HR/FB more than in half, the 2008 totals look more like the statistical outlier -- and no surprise, given he was a 21-year-old with only 16 starts at double-A and no triple-A experience whatsoever. He's the real deal, and watch out if he can knock even a small amount off his walk rates. 18-0-3.20-1.20-210 in 190 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Kershaw is frustrating for fantasy owners. Because of his walk totals, he rarely worked late in games, and this affected his strikeout totals and amount of decisions he received. He can't be expected to maintain this home run rate and some regression in the hits allowed wouldn't be unexpected either. 10-0-3.65-1.40-190 in 170 IP |
Analysis:
Bill James devoted quite a bit of his early national career talking about how one gets to the Hall of Fame. And what he found that the three best ways to get there were to be a key member of a Yankee's championship team, a friend of (or contemporaneous with) certain members of the Veteran's Committee (under the rules in effect at that time) and most importantly, get to the big leagues EARLY. All those milestone numbers become harder and harder the later you arrive in the game.
Kershaw got to the bigs at age 20. He held his own and then some in 2008 and then was impressive in 2009 (even more impressive if you toss out his 7+ ERA first month). There's a long way to go and many stops along the way, but even if the train he is on doesn't go straight to Cooperstown, he's certainly on the right branch line.
It's reasonably obvious that his walks will be an impediment to him in all kinds of ways (see negatives), and for him to be a quality fantasy starter, he's going to have to start working more deeply into games, which will result in more strikeouts and more decisions per start. But when you are reaching triple digit pitches in the fifth inning, you are never going to get a lot of wins, and even a sparkling K rate won't get you a plus number of strikeouts.
We love Kershaw, but it's just a guess which year, if any, he'll be able to post 200 innings. When he does, he's likely to be amongst the very best fantasy properties. 15-0-3.45-1.30-200 in 180 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 90 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 193 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cain should turn in an above average ERA, while finishing with very respectable totals in WHIP, K, and wins. Nothing too special. |
Negatives/Downside:
Cain was extremely lucky with his balls in play last season, and it's likely that doesn't last two years in a row. |
Analysis:
Cain is coming off a terrific season, but he faltered down the stretch. I would stay away from Cain, because it's unlikely that he can produce the same line as last year. He'll be a decent contributor all four pitching categories, but elite at none. There's very little difference between Cain and the starters going four rounds later. 13-0-3.30-1.25-170 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 92 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 132 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lackey has put together back-to-back solid seasons, and has really settled into the category of good-but-not-great starter. He'll get plenty of run support in Boston, which will help him win games, and he's a virtual lock to post a sub-4.00 ERA. 15-0-3.65-1.23-160 in 200 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Lackey's 2008 and 2009 numbers are nearly identical, but they signal a drop from his numbers the previous three seasons. He has taken a step back the past couple years, and although he is still a solid option, another regression is a possibility. Lackey never developed into the ace many thought he'd be. 13-0-3.85-1.28-140 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
John Lackey is one of those rare guys who makes an off-season move from one contender to another. Pitching in the AL East may be a little more brutal than the AL West, but not as much as you may think, thanks to the Orioles and Jays. I think Lackey improves his numbers some in 2010 and wins a few more games. 15-0-3.75-1.25-150 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 104 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 163 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Nolasco overcame a bumpy start by finishing 2009 with a flourish, posting a 7-2 record, 4.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in the second half -- while striking out 105 batters in 97.1 innings of work. Nolasco's 195 strikeouts was the seventh-best K total in the National league, and more of the same should be in store for 2010. 18-0-3.60-1.18-210 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
If "more of the same" includes another ERA of five-plus, then count us out. Even when he was going well last season, Nolasco was maddeningly inconsistent -- mixing strings of quality starts with occasional implosions. We need to see more before investing an extra dollar in Nolasco. 10-0-4.30-1.25-180 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Nolasco's inflated ERA of a season ago should hold his draft day price down, and that's a good thing -- for we believe the Marlins' right-hander is in for a fine season in 2010. 15-0-3.85-1.20-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 103 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 99 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Jimenez usually ends up with a decision every time he takes the mound, good or bad. He could end up in the top-10 in strikeouts for the season has seen his ERA drop three straight years. 18-0-3.35-1.23-205 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
If you can't handle up and downs, look elsewhere. 13-0-3.95-1.35-190 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Jimenez is horribly inconsistent, but can single-handedly make your week. If you don't mind rolling the dice on pitchers, Jimenez is definitely your guy. He's improved three straight years and could be on the cusp of a breakthrough. 15-0-3.65-1.28-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 102 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 100 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Before his injury Webb was an above average performer across the board. If he returns to form, Webb will could be the value pick that wins your season. 15-0-3.40-1.20-170 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Injuries of course. No one knows how he is going to rebound from his shoulder surgery, but it may not be good. 10-0-3.65-1.28-120 in 160 IP |
Analysis:
The uncertainty surrounding Webb's health will drop his value to the point where you can take a calculated risk on him. He reminds me of Chris Carpenter in last year's draft. He's primarily a sinker-baller who looks to makes batters pound the ball into the ground. Since Webb isn't a power pitcher, a return to form is more likely coming off an arm injury. 15-0-3.50-1.25-150 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 113 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 98 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bills reached 200Ks in 2008 as a 23 year old. So we would expect that, absent injury, he would attain that level again and again. The Dodger starting staff doesn't inspire confidence, but the bullpen was very effective. Barring a fire sale the offense should be a boon to the Dodger starters. He will not be an elite starter for fantasy purpose unless he is able to lower his walk rate. But despite that, even though it is not wonderful, Billingsley WHIP has been extremely reliable 1.33, 1.34 and 1.32 the past three seasons.
Further, Billinglsey's disastrous July (7.52 ERA) was due almost entirely to a strand rate for the month of 53.7% most of which can be laid at the door of the bullpen. 17-0-3.30-1.25-200K 210IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Although high walk rate pitchers can thrive (see Ryan, Nolan) they do narrow their own margin for failure. We've already mentioned his July where fully 25% of his earned runs came across the plate. Some of that can be laid at the door of the bullpen, but of course someone did put those runners on base. All those "small" changes would have made less of an impact on his ERA had he been pitching with fewer base runners. 12-0-4.10-1.35-180. 190IP |
Analysis:
Billingsley's record is veritable water-torture of small things going the wrong way, leading to a big thing going wrong. Billinglsey's strikeout, walk, HR/FB, GB/FB and strand rates all went the wrong direction - not much, but they all did. and as a result Billingsley's ERA jumped almost a full run.
Billngsley's 3.14 ERA in 2008 was a bit of a lucky result. His high walk rate generated a 1.34 WHIP which would normally translate to a higher figure, but Chad gave up a modest amount of home runs, kept the ball on the ground at a good rate and had an unusually good strand rate, So while you shouldn't expect that ERA unless he steps up the rest of his game, a return to close to that level should be in order. Like team mate Clayton Kershaw, the main obstacle between Bills and fantasy gold is the walk rate that elevates his pitch counts and prevents him from getting deep into games, so fewer total strikeout and Wins.
200Ks at 23a and just reaching 26 in July equals potential third round production for a ninth round pick. 16-0-3.50-1.30-200. 210IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 110 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 112 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
When Burnett is on, he is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. If he can keep it all together over the course of an entire season, he has the potential to be an elite option, especially pitching in the Bronx where wins will be aplenty. 18-0-3.90-1.30-200 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
When Burnett is off, he can be downright awful. He is too inconsistent to be relied on as anything more than a number two fantasy starter and has an extensive injury history. Yes, he has stayed healthy the past two seasons, but it seems like it is only a matter of time before injury strikes again. 13-0-4.20-1.38-155 in 170 IP |
Analysis:
When you take a step back and just look at Burnett's 2009 numbers, you'll see that they really weren't anything overly exciting, 13-4.04-0-195-1.40. He is far too inconsistent to post elite numbers, and even when he is dominant, he walks too many batters. I don't think his 2010 numbers are much better than his 2009 stats. 15-0-4.00-1.35-190 in 205 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 112 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 116 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Rodriguez exploded onto the fantasy scene in 2009, winning 14 games, posting an outstanding 3.02 ERA and fanning 193 batters in 205.2 innings of work. The Houston lefty delivered on the promise he had shown in his injury-shortened 2008 season, especially at home -- where he finished 9-3 with a stellar 2.08 ERA. If he continues to progress (and picks up some run support along the way), Rodriguez could become a top-notch starter this year. 15-0-3.10-1.23-200 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Wandy may have exploded onto the scene, but explosions have a way of ending badly. His '09 numbers were well below his career norms, and at age 31, his upside is limited. His walk rate is still a bit high, so his WHIP should remain rather elevated. Oh by the way, that awesome performance at home was offset by his awful 4.05 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. Holy lineup juggling, Batman. 10-0-3.85-1.33-160 in 185 IP |
Analysis:
Rodriguez is a well-know "homer" -- he has clearly been a different pitcher at Minute Maid Park each of the past three seasons, and until he solves his road woes, he's not likely to ascend into the realm of No. 1 fantasy starter. 13-0-3.45-1.28-185 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 111 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 102 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Weaver has a nose for wins -- he's been in double digits for all of his four major league seasons. He'll produce a quality number of strikeouts, but nothing that will both you away. If your league counts complete games, upgrade Weaver a bit. 18-0-3.60-1.25-175 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency continues to plague Weaver, causing his ERA to perennially inflated. 13-0-4.00-1.35-165 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Jered Weaver is inconsistent. If you could find a way to weed out his terrible starts, he'd be rather legendary. But as it is, he's just resigned to being a pitcher that wins you some weeks and loses you others. He's currently going around the same time as Brandon Webb and Wandy Rodriguez -- both better options. 15-0-3.80-1.30-170 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 126 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 96 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Jurrjens posted the fifth-best ERA among major league starting pitchers last season, and at just 24 years of age, still has considerable upside. His WHIP dropped significantly last season, while his walk rate showed a modest decrease over his rookie season of 2008. Jurrjens doesn't attract much attention, but his respectable K rate and improving command should mean that more good things are in store for 2010. 15-0-3.05-1.23-170 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Jurrjens' command may have improved a bit last season, but he won't be mistaken for Greg Maddux any time soon. His BABIP of .268 last season will be tough to replicate, so it's easy to imagine him falling back in 2010. 10-0-3.70-1.35-140 in 195 IP. |
Analysis:
Jurrjens is a solid major league starting pitcher, but he won't light it up in any specific category. ERA is where he'll provide the most help, along with a decent strikeout rate. Don't overpay for last year's numbers, but you could do worse than Jurrjens as your No. 4 fantasy starting pitcher. 13-0-3.40-1.30-155 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 127 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 115 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Oswalt posted an ERA above 4.00 for the first time in his nine-year career last season, and he is focused on bouncing back in 2010. A new workout regimen will hopefully alleviate the back problems that caused him to be shut down in September, and a little more support from his bullpen and offense should boost his win total this season. 15-0-3.35-1.20-160 in 210 IP. |
Negatives/Downside:
Uhm, who exactly is the closer in Houston these days? The 'Stros threw big bucks at Brandon Lyon to be a set-up man, but, after all, he is still Brandon Lyon. There are a lot of miles on Oswalt's tires, and his slight frame does not inspire confidence that he'll make it through the season without a DL stint or two. 11-0-3.75-1.30-130 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
Despite his dismal season, Oswalt's peripheral numbers were still solid last year -- so a bounceback could indeed be in order for '10. Don't reach for Oz, as both his bullpen and offense figure to be woeful this year. He does, however, present a fine buy-low opportunity as your draft enters those awkward teen rounds. 13-0-3.45-1.25-150 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 148 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 102 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
A rocky second half inflated Shields' 2009 numbers, but over the past two and a half seasons he had been one of baseball's more consistent starting pitchers. A jump in his BABIP may have been the culprit for his second-half swoon, but it's worth noting that he still posted a very respectable walk rate and K/BB ratio. that crummy second half will lower Shields' draft day price, and he's definitely a bargain worth grabbing. 15-0-3.85-1.20-170 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
That second-half nosedive might have been a run of bad luck, or perhaps the league was catching up to Shields. He relies heavily on a great change-up as his out pitch, and if a hitter guesses right -- and he doesn't spot it well -- bad things happen. 11-0-4.35-1.30-145 in 195 IP |
Analysis:
Shields didn't post those two fine seasons in '07 and '08 by accident -- and his 3.42 ERA in the first half of '09 was no mirage, either. He's not fooling as many hitters as he used to: his BAA has climbed each of the past two seasons. Still, Shields is a quality major league pitcher, and he is well worth grabbing after a dozen rounds or so have gone by the boards. 13-0-4.00-1.25-160 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 149 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 138 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Baker's a command guy who also gets strikeouts, making him an attractive fantasy option. He should be able to provide an excellent WHIP once again, similar to last year's 1.19 mark. An improved Twins offense will help him maintain strong win totals, and he may benefit from moving to Target Field, where cool temperatures in the beginning and end other season could adversely affect offense. |
Negatives/Downside:
Limiting home runs is a challenge for Baker, and his HR/9 rate has increased modestly over the last three seasons. If he can't improve on this, his ERA will end up over 4.00 again, rather than returning to its 2008 level of 3.45. Opposing hitters' BABIP against Baker was down a bit in 2009, another cause for concern with respect to Baker's ERA. |
Analysis:
Last season, Baker enjoyed some buzz heading into fantasy drafts as some projected a breakout on the heels of an impressive 2008. Even if it's more likely he posts an ERA over, rather than under, 4.00 this year, Baker is an asset as a starting pitcher who will make positive contributions in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP. 14-0-4.20-1.18-160 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 142 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 131 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Garza pitched in some tough luck last season, garnering only eight wins despite a decent 3.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 203 innings of work. His strikeout rate increased significantly over 2008, and his .233 BAA should tell you all you need to know about this up-and-comer's wicked stuff. 14-0-3.60-1.22-185 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Garza still has problems away from Tropicana Field, as his ERA ballooned to 4.85 on the road last season. His walk rate jumped dramatically last year, and until he gains better command he won't be thought of as a budding fantasy ace. 10-0-4.20-1.29-165 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Garza possesses ace-quality stuff, and if he learns to spot it well, he could be a fearsome fantasy force. There is still upside here, and Garza certainly has the potential to post breakout numbers in 2010. An improved Rays bullpen and better run support should get him back into double-digit win territory. 12-0-3.85-1.25-175 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 141 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 63 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
One of the best young left handers in the game. Can strike out people yet has wonderful control. Can work out of trouble by inducing ground balls. Big, durable left-handed...what's not to like? 16-0-3.3-1.10-190. 200IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Not too many negatives here. Sophomore jinx? A's poor offense? 11-0-4.00-1.30-170. 185IP |
Analysis:
Coming into 2009 The A's were looking at one or two of their most prized prospects being inserted into their rotation directly out of double-A ball. Of those two, most people felt that the better bet to win the job and to succeed was the radar-gun friendly Trevor Cahill, a solid righty with solid double-digit strikeout rates the previous season (a slight fall off on promotion to double-A). At the end of the day, the more control-oriented lefty also won a job and performed so well as to make him one of the more intriguing middle tier pitchers coming into 2010.
Anderson got off to a rough start, partially schedule with perhaps a higher dosage than directed of Red Sox and Yankees for the then 21 year old with all of 31 innings over single-A ball. As Anderson owners will tell you, he got better...a lot better. After striking out 27 over 47+ innings in April and May, Anderson then struck out 123 over the remaining 128.
Anderson's career path looks very bright. 13-0-3.50-1.20-180. 190IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 150 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 77 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
John Danks is nobody's idea of an ace, but he's productive enough to be a solid mid-rotation piece. He'll produce okay strikeout numbers - over his three-year career he's been in the 6.0-7.0 K/9 range - to go with a solid ERA, and double-digit wins. Plus, he'll still be only 24 on Opening Day, meaning there is perhaps some development left in him. |
Negatives/Downside:
After cutting down his HR/9 in 2008, it jumped in 2009 to 1.3 HR/9, while his BB/9 and SO/9 each went the wrong way as well. Additionally, it appears Danks benefited from some good fortune, evidenced by batters posting only a .269 BABIP against him. It's a good bet Danks' numbers will worsen. |
Analysis:
It might be tempting for some to look at Danks' age, wins, and ERA and expect some improvement in 2010. However, fantasy players shouldn't expect Danks to be more than a back-end SP option this season. Look for his ERA to head north of 4.00, to go along with modest numbers in other categories. This doesn't make him a bad pitcher, depending on your league's depth, but don't draft him with outlandish expectations. 12-0-4.40-1.28-140 in 185 IP. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 162 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 127 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The world saw what David Price is capable of in the 2008 ALCS, as he mowed down the Red Sox time and again in the pressure cooker atmosphere of the playoffs. He started slowly last season, then turned things around nicely in the second half -- posting a 7-4 record, 4.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP after the Break. His very respectable .241 BAA should tell you that the stuff is there, all that's lacking is command. 14-0-3.95-1.23-155 in 170 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Price's ratios came down in the second half, all right -- along with his strikeout rate. He never really seemed to find the electric stuff that so baffled the Bosox, and one is left wondering if the hype exceeded the ability. Just sayin'. 10-0-4.45-1.30-115 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
We like the big lefty's upside, and the fact that he'll be available at a bargain, ahem, price makes things all the better. There's nothing like a post-hype sleeper, and Price could reward his Fantasy owners handsomely in 2010. 12-0-4.10-1.25-140 in 160 IP. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 164 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 97 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
At the top of his game, Kazmir can deliver a top notch ERA and K/9 rate. As an Angel, Kazmir was able to turn his season around, posting a stellar 1.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six starts. |
Negatives/Downside:
His downside was whatever was going on with him in Tampa last year. He lost command of his fastball and saw his ratios explode. |
Analysis:
Something bad happened to Scott Kazmir. Once hailed as a burgeoning ace, Tampa basically gave Kazmir away at the deadline last year. Maybe he's been cursed. He's going pretty late and is a good value for his potential upside. His walks will always keep his WHIP up, but a high strikeout rate should keep him on fantasy radars. He may not be as washed up as people think. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 163 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 93 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Dempster successfully reduced his walk rate in 2009, plus by logging another productive 200 inning season, he showed his strong 2008 wasn't a fluke. He should once again be an above average source of strikeouts. |
Negatives/Downside:
Several of Dempster's stats headed the wrong way in 2009, as he was more hittable and more prone to the long ball. While his bulk strikeouts were useful, it should be noted that on a per-inning basis, he was less effective in striking batters out. If he doesn't arrest these trends, 2010 could be another step backward. |
Analysis:
As long as you're not counting on a return to 2008 levels, Dempster should again be an appealing rotation option as a source of strikeouts who won't kill you in other categories. Expect some regression, but it will likely be an acceptable amount. 12-0-3.90-1.32-165 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 189 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 102 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
An encouraging sign from an Zambrano's inconsistent 2009 was that the big right hander boosted his strikeout rate from 6.2 K/9 in 2008 to 8.1 K/9, while he also lowered his ERA from 3.91 in 2008 to 3.77. If these numbers indicate an uptick in stuff, Zambrano could be enjoy a rebound season after recommitting to conditioning over the offseason. |
Negatives/Downside:
After experiencing heavy workloads in his early twenties, it's possible 2009's injury issues and inconsistency are a sign of things to come. Zambrano also saw his walk rate increase to 4.1 BB/9 and his WHIP reached 1.376. Fantasy owners should be cautious with Zambrano. |
Analysis:
It's a little difficult to predict what exactly Zambrano will do this season. He could be entering a decline phase, although perhaps his arm will have benefited from extra rest after pitching fewer innings last year. As always, it's a question of value - he's probably not a guy to reach for early, but if he drops a bit, he does offer some upside potential. 13-0-4.10-1.35-160 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 188 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 90 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
In an injury-shortened season, Lilly was as productive as he's ever been. He impressively lowered his BB/9, H/9, and HR/9, and was a fantasy asset in every non-save category. To some extent he's been an overlooked fantasy commodity in the past and may be again this year given his injury issues. |
Negatives/Downside:
Shoulder surgery is not something to be taken lightly with pitchers, especially combined with Lilly's ongoing knee issues. Now in his mid-30s, there's some risk he won't be able to bounce back as effectively from these ailments. While last year was very successful, his strikeout rate did drop and given his career numbers, it's likely his ERA and WHIP will regress from 2009's levels. |
Analysis:
Recent news suggesting Lilly may miss the first month of the season could precipitate a fall on many draft boards. But if you're willing to accept some risk, Lilly is a good target. He has a strong track record, and as shoulder surgeries go, his was more on the minor side. Fantasy owners may be rewarded for their faith and patience with Lilly. 10-0-4.10-1.20-135 in 160 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 203 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
With two full seasons under his belt, Floyd has shown he's capable of being a reliable fantasy starter. With his underlying numbers trending in the right direction - his home run and walk rates dropped while his strikeout rate and groundball % rose - he should at least be able to muster another season as a back-end rotation option in mixed leagues, and if he has another uptick of growth left in him, he could be a bit more. |
Negatives/Downside:
As a pitcher who is fairly hittable and prone to walks at times, many have anticipated a fall-off in production. Thus, the possibility exists that if the strikeout rate increase isn't real, or if the 3% jump in LD% is the beginning of a trend, there could be some regression. |
Analysis:
He's not flashy, but Floyd should again be a solid guy to have in your rotation mix. His 3.77 FIP is an encouraging sign that he may be able to once again bring his ERA below 4.00. His upside may not be tremendous, but his downside is also not as steep as observers suspected during his surprising 2008 run. 13-0-4.00-1.24-150 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 205 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
When the Dodgers signed Wolf prior to the 2009 season, they probably harbored few illusions that Wolf would pitch as well as he did. When he's healthy, there's a lot to like about Wolf, primarily that he can accumulate strikeouts without endangering other categories. He has now crossed the 30-start mark in two straight seasons, a hugely encouraging sign for Wolf. |
Negatives/Downside:
Of course, Wolf still feels like a sizable gamble. Sure he's been healthy the last two seasons, but he entered this two season stretch coming off four straight years of injury problems. Additionally, that Wolf enjoyed some luck on balls in play last year and his K-rate dropped a bit from 2008 are causes for some concern. |
Analysis:
How many times has Wolf's profile begun this way? If healthy, Wolf will be productive. His value is entirely wrapped up in whether you think he can stay healthy. As he enters deeper into his thirties, realize the odds of this injury-prone pitcher keeping himself on the mound become longer. 10-0-3.90-1.30-110 in 150 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 206 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
Buchholz has tremendous upside. He has tremendous stuff, and has shown he can be dominent as evidenced by the no hitter he collected. He enters his first full season as a starter in 2010, but has enough experience in the big leagues to be considered a candidate for a breakout as a third-year starter, which is commonly when young pitchers put it all together. Pitching for a winning team should also help him accumulate wins. |
Negatives/Downside:
Buchholz had an ERA 4.95 last year and a WHIP of 1.49. Those are the numbers of someone you don't want anywhere near your fantasy roster, nevermind someone you want to use a middle round pick on. The potential is there, but Buchholz has not shown enough consistency to make him anything more than a high risk/high reward guy in 2010. |
Analysis:
Buchholz is a classic high risk/high reward guy. If you have a couple of safe starting pitching options on the roster in front of him, he makes for a good gamble. He will be better in 2010, but may still need another year before we start to see how good he can really be. 13-0-160-4.05-1.35 in 185 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 208 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
After missing most of the 2009 season recovering from elbow surgery, Hudson put up some serviceable numbers upon his return. In seven starts, Hudson cobbled together a 3.61 ERA -- while fanning 30 batters in 42.1 innings of work. Don't forget, Hudson won 16 games as recently as 2007, and owns a career ERA of 3.49. At just 34 years of age, he almost certainly has a couple of good years still in the tank. 13-0-3.85-1.25-135 in 190 IP. |
Negatives/Downside:
Hudson has never owned dominant stuff, and a finesse pitcher without impeccable command can be summed up in two words: Batting practice. It's also hard to get excited about the .295 opposing batters hit against Hudson in 2009. Buyer beware. 8-0-4.35-1.35-80 in 130 IP. |
Analysis:
Hudson has looked good this spring, and could potentially climb back to No. 3 Fantasy starter status -- if he can stay healthy, that is. 11-0-3.95-1.30-115 in 175 IP. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 204 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
Jackson is an excellent source of cheap ratio help late in drafts. He'll win more than he losses and will have a very respectable strikeout totals by season's end. Oh, he moved to the National League, that's always an advantage. |
Negatives/Downside:
He started wearing down towards the end of last season and could suffer the same fate again in 2010. |
Analysis:
Newly acquired Edwin Jackson is coming off a career year with the Tigers, and a new residence in the NL West will do him nothing but favors. Jackson finished poorly but still posted a quality 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, and both ratios should improve with a move to the Senior Circuit. You'll be able to pick up Jackson in the later rounds, and he'll make a fine 4/5 starter on any fantasy team. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 178 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
When healthy, Slowey has shown he is capable of being a premier WHIP producer, but he's not just a finesse guy - he has a career 6.9 K/9 rate and a sterling 4.90 K/BB. Last season, Slowey battled injury and inconsistency, but enters 2010 healthy and primed to pick up where he left off. |
Negatives/Downside:
Indications are that Slowey's recovery may be somewhat complicated. He still has screws in his wrist, which he has noted will take some getting used to. If Slowey doesn't have the superb command he's had in the past, he could be in a lot of trouble since he can't make up for subpar location by overpowering opposing batters. |
Analysis:
Serious red flags surround Slowey entering this season. He's coming off a serious wrist injury, and Slowey has admitted its effects still linger. Combine this with a slim margin for error, and it's hard to get excited about Slowey as some fantasy owners were entering 2009. Unless he falls far enough to balance out his negatives, it's probably best to let someone else take the risk. 8-0-4.60-1.28-100 in 160 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 226 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
He is a reliable vet who pitches for one of the best team's in baseball. Despite being 37, he has stayed healthy for the majority of his storied career. There is no reason to think that Pettitte won't be able to put together another good season pitching in the middle of the Yankees rotation. |
Negatives/Downside:
He completely lacks upside and age will eventually catch up with him. While he had a nice 2009 season in new Yankee Stadium, the hitter's park could be a hindrance on Pettitte's 2010 season. Pettitte may be a good option if you want to be safe after taking some risks on starting pitchers before him, but later in the draft, taking someone with more upside is a smarter play. |
Analysis:
With Pettitte, you know what you're getting. He may miss a start here and there, and lacks the upside of some other options, but he will be very consistent and reliable when he's on the mound. Pettitte is a nice safe pick to sure up your rotation with. 15-0-140-4.20-1.40 in 185 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 228 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
While last summer was a disaster for Liriano, the winter was much better to him as, by all accounts, he looked like he had regained the magic he teased fans with in 2006. Going into 2010, he's the ultimate lottery ticket - huge talent despite his more recent struggles. |
Negatives/Downside:
Liriano's 2009 gives little cause for optimism. He was more hittable, more homer-happy, and displayed poor control. He was bad in the first half, worse in the second. While his winter ball performance was encouraging, it wasn't against consistently major league caliber opponents. We don't have to look far to see precisely what Liriano's downside looks like. |
Analysis:
How comfortable are you with risk? He has the talent to anchor a championship-worthy rotation, or he could be un-rosterable. I'm bullish; sometimes the road back from a major injury can be longer than anticipated. If the opportunity cost isn't exorbitant, Liriano is worth a roll of the dice here. 13-0-3.80-1.30-160 in 175 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 230 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
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Positives/Upside:
Sanchez took a nice step forward in 2009, and should take another big leap in 2010. He will be entering his third season as a starter, a season in which many young starters breakout. He has a ton of potential, and is already a nice option in the strikeout department, 177 in 2009. The Giants should be a better team as well, meaning 12 or more wins is a possilibity. |
Negatives/Downside:
There is not a lot to dislike about Sanchez. Even if he doesn't take a huge step forward, he should be able to produce enough to justify his auction value/draft position. |
Analysis:
Lots of upside without a lot of risk? Me likey! Sanchez is one of my favorite sleepers for the 2010 season, primarily because even if he doesn't breakout, he will be a solid source of strikeouts, while posting a solid ERA and WHIP. There's that, and the fact that he could be this year's Ubaldo Jimenez. 12-0-185-3.95-1.35 in 180 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 235 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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