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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 114  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The King will chip in elite totals in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and wins. There are very few pitchers who deliver the fantasy impact of Felix Hernandez. 20-0-2.70-1.15-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Conditioning. Hernandez looks like he's on some sort of Mo Vaughn/David Wells diet. It didn't affect his performance last year, but it's always a concern. 15-0-3.10-1.25-190 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Hernandez had a dominant 2009. If it weren't for the God-like efforts of Zack Greinke, he would have been a unanimous choice for the Cy Young. The scary part? He's only 23, and the best is yet to come. Place 'The King' at the top of your AL draft boards -- yes, even ahead of Greinke. 18-0-2.90-1.20-200 in 220 IP
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| Recommended Draft Position: 24 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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34 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 167 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Greinke may not reach the levels of a 2.16 ERA again, but even a slight drop off will still have him among the league's best fantasy pitchers. 18-0-2.60-1.10-240 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
His biggest negative is what he did last season. He's currently going for too much in drafts, leaving comparable pitchers to be taken at a better value. 13-0-3.30-1.30-200 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Greinke has come a long way in his 6 seasons, from being a 21 year old rookie in 2004 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, to a horrible sophomore campaign which saw him post a 5-17 record, 5.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, to almost being completely out of baseball in '06 with personal issues, and then coming back to pitch two very good seasons in 2007 and in 2008 when he went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 183 K in 202 IP. Then he put it all together for one of the best fantasy seasons in recent memory, winning the CY Young in the process. Because of this, Greinke will be way over-valued, as you'll be paying for last season's numbers that he may have trouble replicating. He'll be fine as your fantasy ace, but there's better value to be had. 15-0-3.00-1.20-225 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 27 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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33 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 129 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
CC's first year with the Yanks would have to qualify as a success. After all, he won 19 games and was amongst the AL leaders in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. Pitching for the World Champs guarantees close to twenty wins again, and 200 strikeouts is well within reach for CC. 20-0-3.10-1.10-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The move from the NL to AL caused CC's numbers to go from ridiculous in 2008 to just really good in 2009. He saw his ERA and WHIP rise and his strikeout total dip in 2009. Expect numbers more like his 2009 totals than his incredible 2008. Pitching in the AL is just that much more difficult than pitching in the NL. 15-0-3.50-1.20-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
CC still qualifies as a fantasy ace and is about as reliable as they come. As long as you don't go wild and chase the numbers he put up with the Brewers, CC will make you happy in 2010. 20-0-3.35-1.15-205 in 235 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 33 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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32 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 117 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Verlander will provide an elite source of strikeouts. His durability allows him to go deep into games, which gives him more opportunities to mow opponents down. His ERA and WHIP will be slightly above average, but it's unlikely he'll finish among the league leaders. 18-0-3.50-1.15-230 in 240 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Verlander is a true fireballer, but, on a Tigers team that looks like it will take a step back in 2010, it is unlikely that he will make a huge impact in anything outside of strikeouts. Not what you want from a fantasy ace. 13-0-3.90-1.30-190 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Verlander was on top of his game in 2009, going 19-9 with a league-high 269 strikeouts. He will be drafted as a fantasy ace, but won't give you the overall numbers of one. Look for better value a few rounds later (e.g. Adam Wainwright or Cliff Lee). 15-0-3.70-1.20-220 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 45 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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29 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 93 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
He's young, already has two great seasons, pitches for one of the best teams in baseball, and collects strikeouts like Tiger collects mistresses. What's not to like? Lester is becoming one baseball's elite starting pitchers. 18-0-3.25-1.18-230 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Pitching in the AL East is never a walk on the beach, even if you don't have to pitch against the Red Sox. This fact will prevent him from being able to post an ERA in the low 3.00s. Somewhere between 3.25 and 3.50 is more appropriate. 15-0-3.50-1.25-200 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Lester has passed teammate Josh Beckett as the Red Sox's ace, and has established himself as a fantasy ace as well. He's just 26, and has a lot of great years ahead of him. Pitching in Boston will provide the run support needed to win plenty of games. 18-0-3.30-1.20-220 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 60 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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27 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 124 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lee will end the year among the league leaders in WHIP and ERA, which gives you opportunity to chase Wins and K elsewhere. The ratios are much harder to find on the waiver wire, and Lee is a specialist. 18-0-3.20-1.18-180 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
He's getting older, and pitching at Safeco will entice Lee to pitch to contact, which could lead to a decline in strikeouts. 15-0-3.50-1.30-150 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Pitching at Safeco, with baseball's best defense behind him, will increase Lee's already sterling numbers. The only chink in his armor is that his K/9 rate (7.04), although nothing to sneeze at, is nowhere near his dominance in WHIP and ERA. Lee will produce number one value, at a second tier price. 18-0-3.30-1.20-170 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 67 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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26 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 110 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Beckett bucked the trend of having a good season every other year in 2009 when he posted numbers similar to his 2008 totals. He has developed into a reliable contributor across the board and has the upside to outproduce his draft position/auction price. 18-0-3.50-1.15-210 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Beckett is prone to having down seasons. While he will help you in all categories, he will not post an elite level ERA. Beckett has incredible stuff but can be an enigma at times. 15-0-3.90-1.25-185 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Beckett is no longer the Red Sox' ace and qualifies as a borderline fantasy ace as well. He is a reliable source of wins and strikeouts, and low walk totals keep his WHIP low. His ERA will be good but not spectacular. I'd much rather target someone like Beckett coming off of a solid season than some of the other starters with similarly perceived value, like Javy Vazquez. 18-0-3.70-1.20-200 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 81 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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24 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 117 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
In 2009 with the Braves, 15-0-2.88-1.03-238. Enough said. 18-0-4.05-1.25-200 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
In 2004 with the Yanks, 14-0-4.91-1.29-150. Pitching in the AL and in the pressure of the Bronx makes all the difference. Enough said. 13-0-4.55-1.35-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Place your hands behind your head, and step away from the Javy Vazquez. Vazquez has absolutely no chance of reproducing his 2009 success back with the Yankees in the AL in 2010. I don't expect him to be as bad as he was in 2004 with the Yankees, but he be a whole lot better either. Let someone else make the poor investment. 15-0-4.35-1.30-195 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 80 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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24 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 132 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lackey has put together back-to-back solid seasons, and has really settled into the category of good-but-not-great starter. He'll get plenty of run support in Boston, which will help him win games, and he's a virtual lock to post a sub-4.00 ERA. 15-0-3.65-1.23-160 in 200 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Lackey's 2008 and 2009 numbers are nearly identical, but they signal a drop from his numbers the previous three seasons. He has taken a step back the past couple years, and although he is still a solid option, another regression is a possibility. Lackey never developed into the ace many thought he'd be. 13-0-3.85-1.28-140 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
John Lackey is one of those rare guys who makes an off-season move from one contender to another. Pitching in the AL East may be a little more brutal than the AL West, but not as much as you may think, thanks to the Orioles and Jays. I think Lackey improves his numbers some in 2010 and wins a few more games. 15-0-3.75-1.25-150 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 104 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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22 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 112 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
When Burnett is on, he is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. If he can keep it all together over the course of an entire season, he has the potential to be an elite option, especially pitching in the Bronx where wins will be aplenty. 18-0-3.90-1.30-200 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
When Burnett is off, he can be downright awful. He is too inconsistent to be relied on as anything more than a number two fantasy starter and has an extensive injury history. Yes, he has stayed healthy the past two seasons, but it seems like it is only a matter of time before injury strikes again. 13-0-4.20-1.38-155 in 170 IP |
Analysis:
When you take a step back and just look at Burnett's 2009 numbers, you'll see that they really weren't anything overly exciting, 13-4.04-0-195-1.40. He is far too inconsistent to post elite numbers, and even when he is dominant, he walks too many batters. I don't think his 2010 numbers are much better than his 2009 stats. 15-0-4.00-1.35-190 in 205 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 112 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 102 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Weaver has a nose for wins -- he's been in double digits for all of his four major league seasons. He'll produce a quality number of strikeouts, but nothing that will both you away. If your league counts complete games, upgrade Weaver a bit. 18-0-3.60-1.25-175 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency continues to plague Weaver, causing his ERA to perennially inflated. 13-0-4.00-1.35-165 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Jered Weaver is inconsistent. If you could find a way to weed out his terrible starts, he'd be rather legendary. But as it is, he's just resigned to being a pitcher that wins you some weeks and loses you others. He's currently going around the same time as Brandon Webb and Wandy Rodriguez -- both better options. 15-0-3.80-1.30-170 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 126 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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19 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 102 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
A rocky second half inflated Shields' 2009 numbers, but over the past two and a half seasons he had been one of baseball's more consistent starting pitchers. A jump in his BABIP may have been the culprit for his second-half swoon, but it's worth noting that he still posted a very respectable walk rate and K/BB ratio. that crummy second half will lower Shields' draft day price, and he's definitely a bargain worth grabbing. 15-0-3.85-1.20-170 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
That second-half nosedive might have been a run of bad luck, or perhaps the league was catching up to Shields. He relies heavily on a great change-up as his out pitch, and if a hitter guesses right -- and he doesn't spot it well -- bad things happen. 11-0-4.35-1.30-145 in 195 IP |
Analysis:
Shields didn't post those two fine seasons in '07 and '08 by accident -- and his 3.42 ERA in the first half of '09 was no mirage, either. He's not fooling as many hitters as he used to: his BAA has climbed each of the past two seasons. Still, Shields is a quality major league pitcher, and he is well worth grabbing after a dozen rounds or so have gone by the boards. 13-0-4.00-1.25-160 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 149 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 138 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Baker's a command guy who also gets strikeouts, making him an attractive fantasy option. He should be able to provide an excellent WHIP once again, similar to last year's 1.19 mark. An improved Twins offense will help him maintain strong win totals, and he may benefit from moving to Target Field, where cool temperatures in the beginning and end other season could adversely affect offense. |
Negatives/Downside:
Limiting home runs is a challenge for Baker, and his HR/9 rate has increased modestly over the last three seasons. If he can't improve on this, his ERA will end up over 4.00 again, rather than returning to its 2008 level of 3.45. Opposing hitters' BABIP against Baker was down a bit in 2009, another cause for concern with respect to Baker's ERA. |
Analysis:
Last season, Baker enjoyed some buzz heading into fantasy drafts as some projected a breakout on the heels of an impressive 2008. Even if it's more likely he posts an ERA over, rather than under, 4.00 this year, Baker is an asset as a starting pitcher who will make positive contributions in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP. 14-0-4.20-1.18-160 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 142 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 131 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Garza pitched in some tough luck last season, garnering only eight wins despite a decent 3.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 203 innings of work. His strikeout rate increased significantly over 2008, and his .233 BAA should tell you all you need to know about this up-and-comer's wicked stuff. 14-0-3.60-1.22-185 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Garza still has problems away from Tropicana Field, as his ERA ballooned to 4.85 on the road last season. His walk rate jumped dramatically last year, and until he gains better command he won't be thought of as a budding fantasy ace. 10-0-4.20-1.29-165 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Garza possesses ace-quality stuff, and if he learns to spot it well, he could be a fearsome fantasy force. There is still upside here, and Garza certainly has the potential to post breakout numbers in 2010. An improved Rays bullpen and better run support should get him back into double-digit win territory. 12-0-3.85-1.25-175 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 141 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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18 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 63 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
One of the best young left handers in the game. Can strike out people yet has wonderful control. Can work out of trouble by inducing ground balls. Big, durable left-handed...what's not to like? 16-0-3.3-1.10-190. 200IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Not too many negatives here. Sophomore jinx? A's poor offense? 11-0-4.00-1.30-170. 185IP |
Analysis:
Coming into 2009 The A's were looking at one or two of their most prized prospects being inserted into their rotation directly out of double-A ball. Of those two, most people felt that the better bet to win the job and to succeed was the radar-gun friendly Trevor Cahill, a solid righty with solid double-digit strikeout rates the previous season (a slight fall off on promotion to double-A). At the end of the day, the more control-oriented lefty also won a job and performed so well as to make him one of the more intriguing middle tier pitchers coming into 2010.
Anderson got off to a rough start, partially schedule with perhaps a higher dosage than directed of Red Sox and Yankees for the then 21 year old with all of 31 innings over single-A ball. As Anderson owners will tell you, he got better...a lot better. After striking out 27 over 47+ innings in April and May, Anderson then struck out 123 over the remaining 128.
Anderson's career path looks very bright. 13-0-3.50-1.20-180. 190IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 150 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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18 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 77 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
John Danks is nobody's idea of an ace, but he's productive enough to be a solid mid-rotation piece. He'll produce okay strikeout numbers - over his three-year career he's been in the 6.0-7.0 K/9 range - to go with a solid ERA, and double-digit wins. Plus, he'll still be only 24 on Opening Day, meaning there is perhaps some development left in him. |
Negatives/Downside:
After cutting down his HR/9 in 2008, it jumped in 2009 to 1.3 HR/9, while his BB/9 and SO/9 each went the wrong way as well. Additionally, it appears Danks benefited from some good fortune, evidenced by batters posting only a .269 BABIP against him. It's a good bet Danks' numbers will worsen. |
Analysis:
It might be tempting for some to look at Danks' age, wins, and ERA and expect some improvement in 2010. However, fantasy players shouldn't expect Danks to be more than a back-end SP option this season. Look for his ERA to head north of 4.00, to go along with modest numbers in other categories. This doesn't make him a bad pitcher, depending on your league's depth, but don't draft him with outlandish expectations. 12-0-4.40-1.28-140 in 185 IP. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 162 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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17 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 127 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The world saw what David Price is capable of in the 2008 ALCS, as he mowed down the Red Sox time and again in the pressure cooker atmosphere of the playoffs. He started slowly last season, then turned things around nicely in the second half -- posting a 7-4 record, 4.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP after the Break. His very respectable .241 BAA should tell you that the stuff is there, all that's lacking is command. 14-0-3.95-1.23-155 in 170 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Price's ratios came down in the second half, all right -- along with his strikeout rate. He never really seemed to find the electric stuff that so baffled the Bosox, and one is left wondering if the hype exceeded the ability. Just sayin'. 10-0-4.45-1.30-115 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
We like the big lefty's upside, and the fact that he'll be available at a bargain, ahem, price makes things all the better. There's nothing like a post-hype sleeper, and Price could reward his Fantasy owners handsomely in 2010. 12-0-4.10-1.25-140 in 160 IP. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 164 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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17 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 97 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
At the top of his game, Kazmir can deliver a top notch ERA and K/9 rate. As an Angel, Kazmir was able to turn his season around, posting a stellar 1.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six starts. |
Negatives/Downside:
His downside was whatever was going on with him in Tampa last year. He lost command of his fastball and saw his ratios explode. |
Analysis:
Something bad happened to Scott Kazmir. Once hailed as a burgeoning ace, Tampa basically gave Kazmir away at the deadline last year. Maybe he's been cursed. He's going pretty late and is a good value for his potential upside. His walks will always keep his WHIP up, but a high strikeout rate should keep him on fantasy radars. He may not be as washed up as people think. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 163 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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16 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 79 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
With two full seasons under his belt, Floyd has shown he's capable of being a reliable fantasy starter. With his underlying numbers trending in the right direction - his home run and walk rates dropped while his strikeout rate and groundball % rose - he should at least be able to muster another season as a back-end rotation option in mixed leagues, and if he has another uptick of growth left in him, he could be a bit more. |
Negatives/Downside:
As a pitcher who is fairly hittable and prone to walks at times, many have anticipated a fall-off in production. Thus, the possibility exists that if the strikeout rate increase isn't real, or if the 3% jump in LD% is the beginning of a trend, there could be some regression. |
Analysis:
He's not flashy, but Floyd should again be a solid guy to have in your rotation mix. His 3.77 FIP is an encouraging sign that he may be able to once again bring his ERA below 4.00. His upside may not be tremendous, but his downside is also not as steep as observers suspected during his surprising 2008 run. 13-0-4.00-1.24-150 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 205 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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13 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 60 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Buchholz has tremendous upside. He has tremendous stuff, and has shown he can be dominent as evidenced by the no hitter he collected. He enters his first full season as a starter in 2010, but has enough experience in the big leagues to be considered a candidate for a breakout as a third-year starter, which is commonly when young pitchers put it all together. Pitching for a winning team should also help him accumulate wins. |
Negatives/Downside:
Buchholz had an ERA 4.95 last year and a WHIP of 1.49. Those are the numbers of someone you don't want anywhere near your fantasy roster, nevermind someone you want to use a middle round pick on. The potential is there, but Buchholz has not shown enough consistency to make him anything more than a high risk/high reward guy in 2010. |
Analysis:
Buchholz is a classic high risk/high reward guy. If you have a couple of safe starting pitching options on the roster in front of him, he makes for a good gamble. He will be better in 2010, but may still need another year before we start to see how good he can really be. 13-0-160-4.05-1.35 in 185 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 208 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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13 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 104 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
When healthy, Slowey has shown he is capable of being a premier WHIP producer, but he's not just a finesse guy - he has a career 6.9 K/9 rate and a sterling 4.90 K/BB. Last season, Slowey battled injury and inconsistency, but enters 2010 healthy and primed to pick up where he left off. |
Negatives/Downside:
Indications are that Slowey's recovery may be somewhat complicated. He still has screws in his wrist, which he has noted will take some getting used to. If Slowey doesn't have the superb command he's had in the past, he could be in a lot of trouble since he can't make up for subpar location by overpowering opposing batters. |
Analysis:
Serious red flags surround Slowey entering this season. He's coming off a serious wrist injury, and Slowey has admitted its effects still linger. Combine this with a slim margin for error, and it's hard to get excited about Slowey as some fantasy owners were entering 2009. Unless he falls far enough to balance out his negatives, it's probably best to let someone else take the risk. 8-0-4.60-1.28-100 in 160 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 226 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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12 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 81 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
He is a reliable vet who pitches for one of the best team's in baseball. Despite being 37, he has stayed healthy for the majority of his storied career. There is no reason to think that Pettitte won't be able to put together another good season pitching in the middle of the Yankees rotation. |
Negatives/Downside:
He completely lacks upside and age will eventually catch up with him. While he had a nice 2009 season in new Yankee Stadium, the hitter's park could be a hindrance on Pettitte's 2010 season. Pettitte may be a good option if you want to be safe after taking some risks on starting pitchers before him, but later in the draft, taking someone with more upside is a smarter play. |
Analysis:
With Pettitte, you know what you're getting. He may miss a start here and there, and lacks the upside of some other options, but he will be very consistent and reliable when he's on the mound. Pettitte is a nice safe pick to sure up your rotation with. 15-0-140-4.20-1.40 in 185 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 228 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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12 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 115 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
While last summer was a disaster for Liriano, the winter was much better to him as, by all accounts, he looked like he had regained the magic he teased fans with in 2006. Going into 2010, he's the ultimate lottery ticket - huge talent despite his more recent struggles. |
Negatives/Downside:
Liriano's 2009 gives little cause for optimism. He was more hittable, more homer-happy, and displayed poor control. He was bad in the first half, worse in the second. While his winter ball performance was encouraging, it wasn't against consistently major league caliber opponents. We don't have to look far to see precisely what Liriano's downside looks like. |
Analysis:
How comfortable are you with risk? He has the talent to anchor a championship-worthy rotation, or he could be un-rosterable. I'm bullish; sometimes the road back from a major injury can be longer than anticipated. If the opportunity cost isn't exorbitant, Liriano is worth a roll of the dice here. 13-0-3.80-1.30-160 in 175 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 230 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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11 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 63 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
There is no question that Daisuke has top 25 starting pitcher potential. After his disatourous 2009, he will come cheap, making him a fantastic high reward target in 2010. Most encouraging are his stats from the five starts he made after returning in September, 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and an opponents batting average of only .237. Those numbers indicate that now that he is healthy he is ready to get back to his old self. |
Negatives/Downside:
He represents a huge injury risk, and is already heading to spring training with a back issue. When he was healthy enough to take the mound last season, he was downright horrendous, posting a 5.79 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP! The risk surrounding Daisuke is just too big. He is better off avoided. |
Analysis:
Matsuzaka will be better in 2010, but that really isn't saying too much. His strong September is encouraging, but expectations need to be tempered. He is an example of a huge risk/huge reward guy, and not a bad pick if you have a reliable group of starting pitchers in front of him. 15-0-160-4.00-1.35 in 180 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 239 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
10 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 91 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Buehrle has made a career out of consistency. He's durable, helping him attain wins, and he typically can be relied on for a solid ERA. Double-digit wins and an ERA under 4.00 aren't bad from a back-end fantasy rotation option. |
Negatives/Downside:
Strikeouts aren't Buehrle's forte, and even moreso after his K/9 rate dropped by more than a strikeout last year. He's generally pretty hittable and can be touched for the long ball - his peripherals make one wary that with just a little bad luck, Buehrle could have an extremely forgettable season. |
Analysis:
Sure, he tossed a no-hitter last year, but Buehrle's a weaker fantasy asset in most leagues. Draft him late to round out your rotation, but don't be seduced into relying on him for more than that. 12-0-4.10-1.28-110 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 237 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
10 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 74 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Santana can mow them down with the best of them and he should turn in a respectable WHIP and ERA. |
Negatives/Downside:
His injury affected his 2009 performance and may not completely be recovered. If we get another season like that, he won't be worth owning. |
Analysis:
Now a year removed from elbow problems, Ervin Santana may be ready to show us the stuff that made him a 16 game winner in 2008. Even with his bum arm, he was still able to consistently strike batters out and should be heavily monitored for the first month of the season. If Santana can jump out to a hot start, snap him up as quickly as possible, as he just might be back to full strength. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 236 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
9 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 71 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Strikeouts. Scherzer compiled one of the best K/9 totals of any starter in baseball last season (9.19) and should build on that in 2010. |
Negatives/Downside:
Moving to the AL will have him face much tougher line-ups than he saw in the AL West. He has a respectable WHIP, but does walk too many batters, leading to an increased ERA. |
Analysis:
Max Scherzer will take the spot of Edwin Jackson in the rotation. Last season Scherzer had more K's than innings pitched. I never like a pitcher moving from the NL to the AL, but Scherzer is young and still has not hit is potential yet, so look for him to put up similar numbers in the AL. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 145 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
9 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 60 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
When he's healthy, Sheets is a force in Ks, WHIP and ERA. |
Negatives/Downside:
Health. There's nary a season where Sheets stays out of the triage unit. |
Analysis:
Ben Sheets is back after his year sabbatical. The former Brewers' ace has spent more tim on the DL than actually in the line-up over his career. so why do we still talk about him? His nasty stuff. Sheets is a true power pitcher and can help you out in most pitching categories. I would recommend drafting Sheets if you can get him 16th round on, which you should be able to. Minimize your risk with Sheets because it's likely that he'll just end up hurting his arm, but, if he can take the mound 25+ times this year, he'll be a top tier starter. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 231 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
9 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 67 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Potential. If he can crack the rotation, Feliz will instantly become an elite source of strikeouts, while giving you good ratios along the way. |
Negatives/Downside:
Youth. We may be expecting too much too quick for the 21-year old. |
Analysis:
We may have only gotten a small sample size of his talents last season, but he made quite an impact. In 31 innings, he posted a 1.74 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and an astonishing 39 strikeouts. It’s hard to determine how this will play out over an entire season, but it’s a risk you should take. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 240 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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9 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 83 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Chamberlain has a world of talent, and is entering his third season as a starter in the majors, a time when many young pitchers bust out. Last year was a step back, but many young starters hit bumps in the road to stardom. The run support the Yankees are a lack to provide will often allow him to pitch with a lead and win a lot of games. The Yankees are living by their statement that Joba will remain a memeber of the rotation. |
Negatives/Downside:
The step backwards he took in 2009 is pretty concerning. He gave up way too many hits and walks. He seems better suited to come out of the pen than to be a starter, and it is likely only a matter of time until the Yanks come to the same conclusion. With Phil Hughes waiting to pounce on Joba's spot in the rotation, and his struggles last season, Chamberlain is simply not someone worth taking a chance on in 2010. |
Analysis:
Joba is definitely talented, but I tend to believe that he is better suited to pitch out of the pen. The Yankees and their fans may be the least patient team in baseball, and if Chamberlain struggles early, expect Hughes to take over his spot in the rotation. While Joba is likely to pitch well should he be relegated to the pen, his value as a set up man would be extremely limited. Joba is someone I will avoid in 2010. 8-0-130-3.60-1.35 in 150 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 259 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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8 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 64 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Strikeouts. Harden knows how to mow hitters down. Maybe with some added run support in Texas, he'll get a few more wins. |
Negatives/Downside:
His ERA and WHIP was unusually inflated last season and could spill into 2010. |
Analysis:
The Canadian fireballer has all the gifts of an ace, but his body just can’t keep up with him. Don’t put yourself through the headache of drafting him early, but if you can get him in the 16th round or later, take him and pray he discovered HGH. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 198 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
8 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 64 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
He's won double digit games the last two years... thats's a positive. |
Negatives/Downside:
His ERA, WHIP and strikeouts will actually hurt your team. |
Analysis:
Don't let the 16 wins mask the truth -- you want no part of Joe Saunders and his laughably high ERA and WHIP. Massive run support allowed Saunders to excel in 2009, but don't expect history to repeat itself in 2010. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 281 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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$ |
7 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 57 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Pineiro looked like he had a reversal of fortune in 2009 when he won 15 games. He should be able to turn in a low WHIP and reasonable ERA. |
Negatives/Downside:
His decent ratios aren't enough to compensate for his low K/9. Also, a switch back to the American League, where he hasn't had a winning season since 2003, will likely lead to an increase in those ratios. |
Analysis:
Stay away from Joel Pineiro, as a switch to the American League is not what the doctor ordered. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 279 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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$ |
7 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 60 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Apparently he knows how to win games. Feldman finished with 17 wins in 2009. |
Negatives/Downside:
He can hide behind his 17 wins, but his ratios and strikeout totals were well below average. |
Analysis:
Don’t be fooled by Scott Feldman’s 17 wins, he wasn’t that good. He wasn’t bad, but not 17-wins good. There’s the possibility that he can improve on his rookie season, but leave the finding out to someone else |
| Recommended Draft Position: 287 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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$ |
7 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 64 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Marcum's ratio's could be Dan Haren-esque if he's healthy. |
Negatives/Downside:
He hasn't pitched in the majors in a year and a half. It's hard to tell what kind of impact that will have on his performance. |
Analysis:
Before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2008, Marcum was one of fantasy's most underrated pitchers. He'll deliver excellent ratios and around a 7 k/9. He'll go forgotten in most drafts, but savvy drafters should gamble on him, as he could be a huge surprise in 2010. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 297 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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6 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 64 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
If he's healthy, Bedard could be a fantasy ace. He'll deliver strikeouts and great ratios. |
Negatives/Downside:
He's always hurt. |
Analysis:
Bedard is back and just as injured as ever. Unless you can get him at an ultra discount, save yourself the headache. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 299 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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6 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 87 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Strikeouts. When Morrow is on, he is lights out. |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency and injuries. A strained right forearm has limited Morrow over the past few season and he'll need to shake that problem if he's going to take a step forward in 2010. |
Analysis:
Despite some reports, Morrow will start the year in the rotation, which is great news for fantasy owners looking for a cheap source of pitching talent. Morrow has the talent which has been evident for years, but he can just never seem to keep himself out of the doctor's office -- possibly due to deficient apple intake. He's no sure thing, but I've always had a soft spot for any pitcher that just piles up strikeouts, and Morrow is definitely that guy (career 9.30 k/9). If he can get the rest of his game out of the gutter, he'll be a steal for both the Jays and shrewd fantasy owners. |
| Recommended Draft Position: |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
6 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 60 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The Aussie has had an ERA under four three years running and has a very average WHIP and K/9. In deep AL only formats, you could do worse. |
Negatives/Downside:
He doesn't excel at any one thing and could see his stats come crumbling down at any time. |
Analysis:
It's possible that Safeco inflates the stats of Ryan Rowland-Smith, but it's tough putting trust a man with three names. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 295 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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6 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 54 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Romero has great pedigree (a former 1st round pick) and showed flashes of what he can do last season. He'll pile up strikeouts and if he can keep his walks in check, he'll have serviceable ratios. |
Negatives/Downside:
Walks. Romero has a tendency he issue free passes at a pretty high rate. Last year, this led to to an inflated WHIP and ERA. |
Analysis:
Ricky Romero faded down the stretch in 2009, as most rookies do, but he does possess the raw skills to make him an impact player. I like Romero as a back-end-of-the-rotation guy in deeper leagues, but if he can't put it all together on a consistent basis, he'll be useless. In 10-12 team formats, keep him off your draft lists and place him on the watch list to start the season. Make him prove he can do it first. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 323 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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5 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 70 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Before 2009, he was always a decent ratio guy who struck out a good amount of batters. He could be undervalued coming into the year. |
Negatives/Downside:
He got hurt last year and didn't look strong upon his return. If he puts up his 2009 line, he'll kill your pitching staff. |
Analysis:
Gil Meche is barely an end-game consideration in mixed leagues. In AL only formats, he could have value if he rebounds from a terrible 2009. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 326 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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5 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 62 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Up until last season, Guthrie was always a solid contributor in ERA and WHIP. I'm not sure what happened, but I wouldn't hold out hope on a rebound in 2010. |
Negatives/Downside:
Basically everything. Now that his ratios are problematic, he won't help in any of the pitching categories. |
Analysis:
Guthrie's nice run finally ended in 2009. He finished 10-17 with a 5.04 ERA. Now at age 30, don't expect too big of a rebound. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 328 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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5 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 57 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Masterson is entering his first full season as a starter on the big league level. Unlike some sinker-slider types (Rick Porcello), Masterson has maintained a good strikeout rate. If he develops some pitch that he can use effectively against left-handers, he could be a major profit center. |
Negatives/Downside:
Context is a major question mark for Masterson. With the signing of Russell Branyan, the Tribe looks to be starting an infield composed of one DH, two second basement and a shortstop which is not the formula for success when you throw as many ground balls as this sinkerballer does (54% on his career). 9-0-4.25-1.30-140. 180IP |
Analysis:
Masterson was a second round pick in 2006 out of San Diego State University for the Red Sox and arrived in the big leagues after less than 100 IP above A-ball and with just a handful of triple-A innings. He was largely excellent as a set-up guy and enjoyed mixed results as a starter. This was to be expected given his quick rise through the professional ranks.
Masterson went over to the Indians in the Victor Martinez trade and was not very good. He's a sinker ball pitcher with an iffy accompanying slider and a change-up that needs to be kept out of the zone. Like most sinkerball pitchers, he's in trouble when it doesn't sink and he really needs a second pitch against lefties.
Masterson could easily be the ace of the Cleveland staff, which is more a testament to the paucity of starting pitching by the lake. You'd be well advised to watch his walk rates against lefties (5.29 per nine innings in 2009) and perhaps spot start him against south-paw heavy orders. 11-0-3.90-160. 180IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 331 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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5 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 77 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Niemann came into his own last season, winning 13 games while posting a strong 3.94 ERA. He led all rookies in innings pitched, and solidified a spot in the rotation for 2010. Fantasy-wise, his inning-eater style gives him a good chance for a decision in most of his starts, and the Rays' improved bullpen should help convert some of those quality starts into wins. 14-0-3.85-1.28-135 in 200 IP. |
Negatives/Downside:
Niemann is not a strikeout pitcher, and can be hit - hard - on nights when his command isn't sharp. His ERA jumped four-tenths of a point in the second half -- not a good sign for a rookie pitcher. 9-0-4.45-1.40-105 in 150 IP. |
Analysis:
Niemann's efficiency should involve him in plenty of decisions, and he's a serviceable option at the back end of your fantasy rotation. 12-0-4.25-1.35-135 in 185 IP. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 300 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
5 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 54 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
10k per nine will get your attention really quickly. Gonzalez is still learning how to pitch, and his minor league control rates are a walk and a half better than his major leagues totals so far and showed the ability to adjust (3.4 walks per nine the second time through double-A). His minor league home run rates have been below one per nine, and 11 of his 14 home runs came in the usually home run averse Oakland park as well, so we can expect some improvement there. Not fantasy gold, but you could do worse for the price. 12-0-4.00-1.25-200. 185IP |
Negatives/Downside:
5.1 walks per nine. . That he may not win a job may actually be a positive thing. 6-0-5.20-1.45-100. 95IP. |
Analysis:
With the exception of the 14 home runs and 56 walks, Gio tossed a pretty darn good 98.2IP in 2009. Oh, and 113 hits, that was new. But he is left-handed and struck out 109 over those 98.2IP as well.
His seasons stats were a Little, just a little, misleading. In two starts vs. the Twins Gonzalez gave up 18 runs over 5.2 innings, raising a 4.65 ERA to 5.75. In addition Lefties destroyed him last season, which is both unusual for a left-handed pitcher and not Gonzalez' historical pattern. It suggests that he was tipping his pitches, lost control of his change, something and something not arm-related.
You can go too far very quickly by rationalizing bad results, but it looks like Gio's strikeout rate is real and while the rest of the package isn't wonderful, they look much worse than they actually are. We like guys who miss as many bats as Gio does. 10-0-4.5-1.40-190. 180IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 322 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
5 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 61 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Few people questions Hughes's ability or doubt that he will be successful if given a spot in the Yankees rotation. With Hughes it's all about opportunity. While the Yankees seem content to stick with Joba Chamberlain for now, it is only a matter of time before Chamberlain falters or injury strikes and Hughes cements himself into the rotation for years to come. |
Negatives/Downside:
The talent is not in question, but Hughes's may have himself to blame for not having a spot in the Yanks rotation. He has been so good out of the pen that the Yankees would be foolish to move him to another role. The Yankees are committed to sticking with Joba, and Hughes will spend 2010 as nothing more than a set-up man. |
Analysis:
The possibility that Hughes makes the jump to the starting rotation alone makes him worth the investment. If the opportunity comes, he could easily be the player in 2010 who outperforms his draft position/auction price by the largerst margin. Even if he stays in the bullpen, his contribution as a set-up man will make him worth having on the roster. Projections are hard on Hughes, but I'll go with 10-2-140-3.70-1.20 in 150 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 329 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
5 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 85 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Davis was very impressive in his September cup of coffee with the Rays, displaying outstanding command of two plus pitches. He has the ability to go deep into games, too -- and he showed that by tossing a dazzling four-hit shutout (with 10 Ks) against Baltimore September 17. He should have a rotation spot from the get-go this season, and if he continues his fine work he could provide solid fantasy numbers at a bargain price. 12-0-3.65-1.25-165 in 180 IP. |
Negatives/Downside:
Never judge a September call-up by what he did against a bunch of other September call-ups. Davis is a fine prospect, but don't over-spend thinking that he'll replicate those nice late-season numbers across an entire 162 games. 8-0-4.45-1.40-105 in 140 IP. |
Analysis:
As your draft reaches its final rounds, Davis is likely to be sitting on the board alongside some ho-hum veterans. Spend the extra buck and take the kid; he has been one of the Rays' top prospects since he entered the organization, and a breakout could be in store for 2010. 10-0-4.00-1.30-135 in 170 IP. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 300 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
5 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 59 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
His ratios are shocking for a pitcher in Baltimore. |
Negatives/Downside:
He has a low strikeout total and could have problems coming back from injury. |
Analysis:
Bergesen has had a level of success in the majors. He was having a solid rookie campaign -- 3.43 ERA, 1.28 WHIP -- before a shin injury prematurely ended his season in July. He'll make a nice late round, Al only selection. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 347 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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4 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 66 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Tillman's young and has great upside. If he can breakout through look for a nice K/9 and some respectable ratios. |
Negatives/Downside:
His youth and inexperience. Tillman's totals were brutal in 2009 and I find it very easy to see those problems spilling over into 2010. |
Analysis:
Place Tillman on your watch lists to begin the year. He's done nothing at the major league level to warrant fantasy consideration. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 346 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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$ |
4 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 63 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Last season represented great progress for Pavano, as he showed he may have finally put his health issues behind him, coming just shy of 200 innings. He also ended the season on a positive note with 12 starts of 4.64 ERA ball and an improved strikeout rate. The last time he was completely healthy, he won 18 games with an ERA of 3.00 - his strikeout rate was better last year and walk rate the same. Plus, his opponents' BABIP was elevated, suggesting he suffered from a share of bad luck. If he can find a sweet spot somewhere between his 2004 and 2009 performances, that's a pitcher with value. |
Negatives/Downside:
When he's pitched since his best year in 2004, Pavano has been pretty bad on average. Before he came to the Twins last year, he had returned an ERA over 5.00; fantasy owners must wonder whether the improvement was real or simply a hot stretch as the Twins made their postseason run. |
Analysis:
Pavano could well turn out to be a strong value play in 2010. His numbers superficially look bad (5.10 ERA overall, for instance), but there's enough to like in the underlying numbers in which to be confident. 13-0-4.60-1.32-150 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 352 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
4 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 60 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
When healthy, Duchscherer is very effective. He limits base-runners well and the ERA follows. There's no gimmick to fail in his pitching games, he has good control over four pitches which he can throw at all points in the count. He limits hits, doesn't issue the free pass and has been consistently stingy on the long ball. 10-0-2.90-1.10-105. 150IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Injury. Strikeout rate. Age. Lack of starting experience. Even in an innings limited world, 95Ks over 22 starts (as he did in his fine 2008 season) is a serious hit to your fantasy chances and it's just not enough innings for the good rate stats to make up for it. 5-0-3.80-1.25-60. 90IP |
Analysis:
Duchscherer has already missed time this spring (back issues) which really doesn't spin up the ol' confidence level. He has no record of being able to hold up as a starter which is the only place he would have any value. His abbreviated 2008 season (10-8 2.54) was good enough that he's worth a stash if you can afford the roster spot, but the most likely result here is some ineffective break-in time and a lot of break-down time.
Even if Duchscherer is healthy, his contribution is limited. He's no longer young (32 this season) and struck out a meager six per nine innings as a starter. He'll not get much offensive support from the A's bats so wins will be less likely. 6-0-3.25-1.22-60. 90IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 393 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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0.0 (0) |
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