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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 228  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Pujols will be amongst the league leaders in average, runs, homeruns, and RBI. In fact, he finished in the top three in the National League in each of those four categories in 2009. His ability to post double digit steals makes him that much more valuable. With Matt Holliday in the line-up for a full season in 2010, Pujols could even have a career year. .335-120-45-130-15 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The Cards' line-up is good, but not great, which will prevent his RBI and run totals from truly shooting through the roof. I guess he could steal more bases. .300-100-35-110-5 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
In a draft, it is advised to take Pujols with the first pick. An argument can be made for going with Hanley Ramirez due to position scarcity, but Pujols is the safer pick and will outproduce Ramirez. In an auction, be willing to pay face value for him. As long as you don't significantly overpay, he will be worth every dollar you spend. In any league, he is the type of guy you build your team around. .320-115-40-120-10 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 1 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 195 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
It was another banner season for Ramirez in 2009, as the Marlins shortstop captured the National league batting crown with a mark of .342. If that weren't enough, the 26-year-old plated a career-high 106 runs, while scoring over 100 runs and stealing at least 27 bases for the fourth consecutive season. The Marlins figure to be in the think of things again this season, and Hanley should once again be mashing from the No. 3 hole in the lineup. Ramirez is one of the game's top fantasy players, and should be drafted in the top three in every league format. .345-125-35-115-35 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The ribbies may be up, but Ramirez's stolen base total has decreased each of the past three seasons, and it looks very doubtful that he'll ever make it back to the 50-steal mark again. Hanley's 24 dingers last year was also his worst showing in three seasons, and his 101 runs the lowest total in his four-year career. .310-95-25-95-25 in 575 AB |
Analysis:
Don't look for elite stolen base totals, but Ramirez remains one of fantasy baseball's best all-around players. You cannot go wrong in grabbing Hanley with the No.2 pick (after Albert Pujols) in just about any draft. .320-110-30-105-25 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 2 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 198 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Despite worries over the hip, Chase punched in and churned out a vintage Utley season. A poor September took the shine off his batting average, but there's nothing here to suggest that he will be anything other than what he has been - the best fantasy second baseman in baseball, playing for a good team and in a good park. .305-100-30-110-18 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Utley is age 31 coming off a significant injury. He did fade significantly in September (batting .198 with correspondingly poor secondary numbers). He's unlikely to be perfect again in stolen bases. The addition of Placido Polanco probably batting ahead of Utley (with Shane Victorino moving back in the order) potentially is a weaker table-setter. But it's hard to be too pessimistic here. .285-95-28-90-13 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Utley set aside fears about his hip by producing another first-round level season and along with it a career high in stolen bases. Owners shouldn't worry about his batting average drop. Although it would be foolish to expect a return to the .332 of 2007, most of his drop off in 2009 was due to a .198 September when he was playing through a severely bruised foot from a foul ball. Likewise, you shouldn't expect a perfect 23 for 23 in stolen bases.
Defensive metrics should generally be taken with a grain of salt, but stats like UZR and other range metrics can be used as an indicator of diminished speed. Utley's range factors were all down (UZR 10.8 down from a career high of 20.2 in 2008) but essentially equivalent to his 2006 numbers (9.3 UZR), so there doesn't appear to be any cause for concern going forward.
The main question with Utley is whether to take him before or after the top two outfielders (Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp). We say bid with confidence. .295-100-30-110-15 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 4 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 209 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Last season we said of Braun that he would get 20 steals -- "yeah, seriously" -- and 20 steals he got. Braun stole 8 in the final month of the season and looks to have built on the speed portion of his game. The days where Braun's strikeout rate was worrisome (112 in 451ABs in 2007) are long gone, and his walk rate has improved each season. Braun put the ball on the ground more than usual last season (GB/FB 1.36 vs. 0.88 in 2008) so we can expect Braun to hit a few more home runs this season as he returns to his normal flyball ratios. .325-115-38-120-20 in 650AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There aren't many negatives here. Milwaukee has replaced Felipe Lopez at the top of the order, perhaps with Carlos Gomez or Alcides Escobar, which means fewer baserunners. His BABIP was .351, so one might expect some regression there, but even in this case, batters often maintain .330+ in-play results from season-to-season. He only walked intentionally once in 2009, so perhaps he will get more intentional passes and lose RBI chances? .290-95-33-100-15 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Ryan Braun enters 2010 as our top outfielder in fantasy. If you felt the need to sacrifice a handful of home runs and a bit of batting average for extra steals, you could be excused for selecting Matt Kemp first, but Braun's 8-steal final month quashed any fear that he would not contribute in all categories. He's durable and consistent -- even in his "bad" July, he collected five home runs, 13 RBI and 18 runs. Select with confidence. .320-110-35-115-18 in 635 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 5 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Kemp is only 25 years old and has yet to enter into the prime of his career. His HR% has gone up each year as has his walk rates and HR/FB%. His strikeout rate is high, but improved slightly last season to 22.9% and he's established himself as a 75% plus base-stealer. If Kemp moves into the heart of the lineup, his countable numbers can only go up (see negatives here). .315-105-33-95-35 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
For whatever reason, Kemp has performed better in the top and bottom third of the batting order (.313 and .333 respectively) as opposed to four through six (.256), and the exact lineup has yet to be set for the Dodgers. Because of the uncertainties surrounding Manny Ramirez, the inconsistency of Russell Martin and the age of Casey Blake, there way be a limit as to what support he will be given. .295-90-25-85-25 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Context questions and Ryan Braun's fine finish in 2009 (.357 with eight steals from Sept. on) are the only thing that keep Matt Kemp out of the number one outfielder slot for 2010. At age 25 and coming off a 26/34 season, even more can be expected from the Dodger center-fielder. There's really no wrong choice between the two best fantasy outfielders in the game -- do you prefer a projected 35 home runs and 18 stolen bases? Or projected 30 and 30? Although Miller Park enjoys a reputation as a hitter's park, it's BPF rates as comparable to Chavez Ravine (which has always been a reasonable park for home runs). Both players are very durable, with neither missing significant amounts of time in their careers.
Kemp's 2009 numbers of 101 RBI and 97 runs came mainly out of the bottom third of the order, holding forth the promise that if he is moved up in the order better countables could follow. Speed, power and reliability for a probable contender is a formula for fantasy success. .305-100-30-100-30 in 600 AB
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| Recommended Draft Position: 6 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 162 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Prince has AVERAGED 40 dingers per season, and he's AVERAGED 111 RBI. Yet the man is only 26 years old in May. He's supposed to get better than this. The loss of Felipe Lopez and Mike Cameron might make some difference, but it's unlikely to be significant. The addition of Carlos Gomez and a full-time Alcides Escobar add a speed element to the batting order and might help Prince see even more pitches. .295-105-50-145-3 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If Ryan Braun regresses off his fine season and Gomez and Escobar are unable to step into full-time roles, the context for Fielder could be seriously affected. Plus, although he is still young, we expect some regression off of good seasons (as we saw with Fielder going from his 50 home run 2007 to his 34 home run 2008). But let's be clear, there are no gray skies here, just less blue. .280-85-35-100-0 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Prince Fielder tied Ryan Howard for the most RBI in baseball for 2009. Along with Howard, he is the best candidate for a 50 home run season in baseball, but unlike Howard we don't worry about a .250-type batting average in a poor season. One of the things that we like about Prince is the expansion of his on-base game. Prince saw 106 more pitches in 2009 than 2008 (in 3 more games played) which is the equivalent of burning an entire start for an opposing pitcher. And if you don't think this counts, ask a team like the Phillies if they'd have liked to have to go to the bullpen for all those extra pitches. .290-100-45-135-3 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 7 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 191 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Howard is one of the most consistent and best power hitters in all of baseball. Since becoming a full-time player, he has missed 100 runs once (94, in 2007) and has driven in 136 or more each season. After amassing 58 home runs in 2006, Howard has topped 45 each year since. Owners were even rewarded with 8 stolen bases last season. Plug in Ryan Howard and you're already ahead in the power categories. .280-105-50-145-5 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There is no reason to think Howard's production will drop off significantly. His BB/K ratio has diminished solely due to his intentional walks decreasing from a high of 37 in 2006 to only 8 in 2009. His BABIP rates are higher than league average, but last year's .325 was lower than his career mark of .327, and in any case, hitters can maintain "abnormal" BABIP season after season. As always with Howard, the question is whether you get the .279 version of 2009, or the .251 version of 2008. In either case, Howard's batting average is significantly worse that that of the other prime first base candidates and on the lower end would be a negative in even deeper leagues. .250-90-40-115-3 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
The possibility that Howard bats .250 keeps us from ranking Howard even higher. Howard's eight steals last season raise the possibility that he could add a small speed component to his arsenal, which would make him even more valuable that old "player-and-a-half" he already is for countable totals. As always, you'll want to plan ahead to insure your batting average in case of the worst case scenario, but Howard is one of the most consistent power hitters in all of baseball. .270-95-45-135-5 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 11 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 202 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Everything is positive when it comes to Lincecum. If he can avoid injury, he'll finish the year among the league leaders in Wins, ERA, Strikeouts and WHIP. 18-0-2.60-1.05-260 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Maybe he takes the foot off the pedal now that he's been paid. His only downside seems to be exclusively speculative. 13-0-2.90-1.15-240 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Lincecum will be the first pitcher to come off the board come draft day. While I don't normally recommend pitchers this high, you'll be off to a huge head start in pitching by adding Lincecum. Tiny Tim will help you dominate across every pitching category (expect saves of course) and should be a threat to the NL triple crown. 15-0-2.70-1.10-255 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 12 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 353 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Positive? It's no longer 2009.
Okay, okay David Wright has more going for him in 2010 than that. First is that unless the Mets are hiding something, there's nothing wrong with him. It's not the park, as he hit five home runs at home and five on the road (for the record, much of Citi-fields "problems" seem to be the injuries and failure of the Mets -- the Mets ranked higher in runs in Flushing than on the road). It's not the strikeouts (way up in 2009) because he was striking out more in May and June while he was batting .378 and .365 than he did later on... well, September he fell apart completely. LD%? GB/FB? Nope, all OK. Other than his lefty/righty splits, this looks like a real fluke. 16.7% hr/fb% in 2008 turns into 6.9% in 2009. Game set and match.
Wright is 27 and still the player he was prior to last season. Because of this, and because the Mets may be playing with a healthier line-up, we could expect a bounce back, particularly in the countables. Citi-field may suppress a few home runs (even after the center field wall is lowered to 8' from 16') but a first-round type performance seems possible. .315-100-25-110-28 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's stopped hitting righties. It's a real problem, and unless he figures it out, you can't be paying the price for him. To make a long story short, if he goes for second-round prices and earns first-round then this would be nice, but it's not going to put you on the podium. But if he costs you the same price and earns like a tenth-rounder, that will surely take you off the podium. .290-85-10-85-23 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
David Wright single-handedly sunk many a fantasy owner's hopes last season. The consensus top third baseman and frequent #3 overall selection churned out the numbers we have come to expect... from Randy Winn. Wright's numbers vs. righties have declined every season since 2006:
year BA/OBP/SLG L-R BB/K ...
2006 .321/.380/.549 0.93-0.46 ...
2007 .311/.404/.505 1.29-0.71 ...
2008 .275/.351/.484 1.42-0.62 ...
2009 .277/.361/.393 1.58-0.43 ...
This is past being a trend. Could the 27-year old star turn this around? You bet he could and I would like it to be on my dime... As long as it is only a dime. .300-90-20-90-25 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 15 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 173 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Everything. Tulowitzki will out-perform the average in all five offensive categories. He is one of a few elite shortstops, and having him man your six-hole will give you a massive advantage over other teams at the position. On top of that, the Tool is a candidate for an unworldly 35 HR/25 SB season. He'll be an excellent pick for anyone trying to build a balanced team from the get-go. .300-105-35-105-25 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There's always the possibility that Tulowitzki reverts back to his 2008 form if he succumbs to injuries, but I'll chalk that year up to a sophomore slump. .280-90-20-85-10 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
Depth is limited at shortstop, and it has pushed the value for the polished Polack threw the roof. Although he may come at cost, Tulowitzki is one of the few five-category contributors in all of baseball. He has a rare combination of speed, power, and position scarcity that will make him an excellent choice for your team. .295-100-30-95-15 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 17 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 153 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Upton is an elite outfielder for good reason. He'll fill up all five categories and create a huge disparity between him and almost every other outfielder. .300-110-35-115-30 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The possibility for the dreaded sophomore slump. .280-90-25-95-15 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
Justin Upton is truly an elite talent. He's one of baseball's few players that fills up all five categories on a consistent basis. The former number-one pick turned in an excellent season that had him amass 26 HR, 86 RBI, and 84 R, all while hitting .300 and swiping an impressive 20 bags. We can only assume that the 22 year-old will only improve on those stats this season. He's a top-five outfielder and will come off draft boards in the first two rounds. If you want him on your roster, you'll have to pay the price, but he should be worth it. .290-100-30-105-25 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 18 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 160 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
After being dealt to the Cardinals last year, Holliday hit .353-42-13-55 in just 63 games. Hitting behind Pujols for a full season bodes well for his 2010 fortunes. He will certainly see more than his share of RBI opportunities. .320-110-25-120-15 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While Holliday was fantastic last year with the Cards, a return to his 2007 totals in Colorado are highly unlikely. As good as Holliday is, his total of 36 homeruns in 2007 was aided by the thin Colorado air. Another concern is the drop in stolen bases he saw in 2009. Last year, Holliday stole just 14 bases, after totaling 28 in 2008. What's worse is that he stole just two of those 12 bases after his move to St. Louis. .300-100-20-100-5 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Holliday could be in line for a big season -- the type you'd call a career year, if it wasn't for his monster 2007 in Colorado. He is someone you can safely target on draft/auction day, but don't expect a return to more than 10-15 stolen bases. .315-105-25-115-10 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 19 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 205 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Halladay moves from the rebuilding Blue Jays to the two-time World Series champion Phillies and from facing the DH to facing the pitcher. Halladay has been a terrific source of strikeouts the past two seasons as well as wins and if anything he is in a better position to contribute there. Much has been said about the benefits of strike-out type starters moving from the AL to the NL, which should more than cancel out any negative effects of moving to such a hitter friendly environment. In addition, Halladay replaces such unfriendly destinations as Fenway and Yankee Stadium with more comfortable division match-ups in Florida and Citi-field. 20-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Halladay turns 33 in May and has a history of arm problems (albeit not recently). That combined with his heavy workload over the past four seasons (232+IP per season) should give one some caution. The other "issue" with Halladay is whether he will be the 5.5 K/9 pitcher of 2006 and 2007 or the 7.5+ pitcher of the last two seasons. The difference being a whopping 60 strikeouts over 230 IP. There's no real reason to think that facing the pitcher he would fall back, but it would not be at all a surprise were he to only put in 200-210 innings in which case his strikeout total might be correspondingly lower. 15-0-3.40-1.20-165 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
It's numerically true that players in the "old days" didn't stay with a single team their entire career much more than they do now, but it certainly feels that way when a player like Halladay moves on. The one-time face of the Blue Jays franchise is now a Philly, with a club coming off two straight World Series appearances. If there's any justice in the world, the Phillies will make it three years in a row and give Doc a shot at the title. The world being what it is, the Jays will beat the Astros this season.
Halladay has been so good over the past two seasons that even with the workload (too much of it) and age on his arm, it's hard not to give him a thumbs up going forward. Much of the bump we would give him for facing the pitcher is given back for the park and his age, but that's still awfully good. We expect him to eat innings, which will give his owners strikeouts and wins. 18-0-3.10-1.15-190 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 21 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 145 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Gonzalez is a classic power-hitting first baseman. He'll offer elite home run totals, all the while giving you above average RBI and runs. He has a good average for a power guy (.277 in 2009), so he won't hurt you there. If he can get moved to a contender at some point this season, he should find himself among the second-half RBI leaders. He's an excellent candidate to trade for around mid-June. .285-100-45-110-0 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Don't expect any SB. .275-90-35-100-0 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Gonzalez is having problems seeing hittable pitches with no protection in the line-up. Instead of drafting the slugger, you may be wise to wait until the trade deadline and deal for him as he'll likely be moved to a contender. Considering the depth at first base, he's over-valued right now. There are similar options for a better value later on (vets Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman or youngster Billy Butler). .280-95-40-105-0 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 25 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 187 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Upside? He's healthy and runs.
OK, there's a bit more to say about it than this. After his first full season when Reyes learned to take a pitch he has been one of the most consistent players in baseball. His strikeout rates, walk rates and contact rates have been as close to statistically equal as you can get. The supporting cast has changed somewhat, but the players immediately after Reyes remain strong. The current plan is for Reyes to bat third until Carlos Beltran is ready to return and this gives the fantasy player a nice sense of security -- even if Reyes doesn't run, or runs at a reduced level, for the time being we can expect more RBI and perhaps a dash more power form Reyes to go along his consistent .280-.300 batting average. With Jason Bay batting close behind, Reyes should have chances to run even from the third position. They won't take the bat out of Bay's hands for the purpose, but he sees so many pitches that a runner like Reyes should have ample opportunities. .300-110-20-80-45 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Downside? He's not healthy and doesn't run.
Hamstring injuries, I do not like them, Sam-I-Am. It is hard to feel confident about Reyes' prospects for playing 150+ games as he did the four years prior to last season. He has a history of leg problems, and hamstrings are notorious for recurring, particularly in players of Reyes' physical type (large, well-muscled legs). Pundit predictions as of this writing range from 300 AB all the way to 684 and if you were to ask Bill James (who predicts 684), I am sure he wouldn't be the least surprised if Reyes did have continuing problems. Early reports have Reyes running normally in short sprints. I am sure, dear reader, that you know how to evaluate statements coming from early spring. The "prudent" position would to assume the Mets would baby their superstar shortstop and remove him at least partially from the running game, even if he is able to play significant games. .280-85-10-60-25 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
On the face of it, the risks surrounding Jose Reyes seem to overwhelm his potential value to a fantasy owner. After all, so much of his value is tied to the stolen bases generated by those knotted up legs, right? Well, yes and no. Let's look at the risk.
Stolen bases don't equate well with runs scored, on-base percentage and batting position do. Carl Crawford has stolen over 50 bases five times, yet scored 100 runs only twice in his fine career (the years when he was predominantly a lead-off man). When Ian Kinsler scored 101 runs with an OBP of .327, it was the just third time in the past decade that any player with an OBP of less than .330 scored 100. Jose Reyes isn't an on-base machine by any means, but he'll be batting third behind quality batters and then shift to lead-off when Beltran arrives. He's had had one of the most consistent walk rates amongst big leaguers since he "got it" in 2006. He'll get his runs even if he doesn't steal.
And if he spends a significant stretch in the three hole, as it seems likely with Beltran missing because of a controversial knee surgery, he could add-on some to his RBI totals. So what does Reyes look like in case he can't run? 100+ runs, 70-80 RBI, maybe 20 steals? (If those numbers look familiar, they should because that's what the top shortstops are looking at unless their name is Hanley, Troy or Rollins... and it's not far off Rollins even if Reyes doesn't run.
Price is everything here. If Reyes doesn't run he'll earn about as much as Derek Jeter (except in BA) and if he does run he instantly becomes lottery. So if Reyes' price tag drops, it seems like an excellent opportunity. We think he'll run some and out-earn every shortstop except Hanley .290-100-15-75-35 in 580 ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 22 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 187 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
For all the fantasy owners that have been burned by Rollins over the past two seasons, he remains one of the best Roto shortstops in the game. 20 home runs, 100 runs, 30 steals? I think you can find a use for that in everything but your three team, mixed, batting average-only league. Although it seems like Rollins has been around forever, and he does have over 1400 major league games, he's still just 31, playing for a powerful team and in a good ballpark. His lower run totals were almost entirely a product of his lower batting average (itself a factor of not hitting lefties, something he has had no real problem with in the past). There's no reason to think he won't hit .270 or more and score 100+ runs in this offense. .290-115-23-80-40 in 690 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Although you can excuse his 2008 campaign on the undisclosed leg problems, the overall arc of his career looks pretty clear with a peak in the 2006 and 2007 season and now a gentle or not gentle decline into usefulness. At this age, and with no real deterioration on the interior numbers, you wouldn't project more decline, but a return to the halcyon days seems improbable. .270-90-10-60-25 in 575 AB |
Analysis:
In retrospect it seems obvious that the MVP-caliber years of 2006 and 2007 were Rollins' career peak. He's still a dangerous power hitter and a definite threat to steal. But his lack of batting average combined with average on-base skills probably put the days of 130 runs out of reach.
Rollins is still a very usable fantasy player of course -- you just don't want to pay as if he were 26 and with the peak ahead, instead of 31 with the peak behind. He remains a linchpin shortstop in a great offense. I expect a rebound on his hitting rates vs. lefties and all his other numbers are are, once you remove the injury-plagued 2008, consistent with everything before them. He put the ball in the air more last season which probably explains both the low average and the 20 homes runs. Expect that all to move back to his normal numbers in 2010. .275-110-18-75-35 in 675 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 23 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 168 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Over 162 games Votto should make an impact in average, HR, RBI and runs. None of those totals will be elite numbers, but well above average. Votto's four category production makes him very valuable. .305-95-35-105-10 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's not a speed demon, but he could grab 6 bases or so. Health is the biggest concern with Votto. From bouts of depression to the bumps and bruises of the season, a more realistic game total would be around 140. .290-85-25-90-3 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Votto showed us last season why he's on the cusp of being among the elite at his position. Joey V posted a .322-82-25-84-4 line, in 131 games last season. Over a full 162, he can do some damage. He could be the perfect target if you miss out on the elite first baseman taken over the first fifteen picks. .300-90-30-95-5 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 26 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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34 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 178 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
I think we got a pretty good look at Reynolds' upside last season -- .260-98-44-102-24. That's going to be tough to top, but we now know what he's capable of. .260-100-45-110-20 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Potential bust factor. There's a good chance that Reynolds won't match the speed numbers and will need to keep his average at that .260 mark to truly be effective. Also stay away if your league counts strikeouts. .235-85-35-90-10 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
Reynolds finally put it all together in 2009 with a monstrous season. I have trouble believing he'll post the same kind of gaudy numbers again in 2010, but he should be useful nonetheless. He trended down towards the end of the season, posting only 8 HR and 3 SB after August 17th, which leads me to believe the speed numbers may have been an aberration. He'll still be an excellent source of power from your corner position, but remember, a lot of his value is wrapped up in his speed numbers, which he may have trouble replicating. He's going to be overrated coming into the year, so avoid the temptation of spending one of your first five picks on him. Don't pay for one huge season when there are other, more proven players that you can get for better value. .250-95-40-100-15 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 28 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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33 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 186 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Zimmerman took a huge step forward in 2009 and has pushed his way into the top-5 at third base. Zimmerman's 2009 was great, but a slight improvement again this year will push him into the top-20 overall players. in .295-105-35-105-3 in 610 AB
Upside: .300-115-35-115-3 |
Negatives/Downside:
Don't expect Zimmerman to terrorize the base paths. He stole just two bases in 2009. .280-90-25-95-0 in 570 AB
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Analysis:
Zimmerman is near the top of a position that does not reek of depth this season, and it's pushing his value through the roof. You'll need to spend a late second/early third round pick to acquire his services in 2010. He's a four category player who will make any team instantly better. If you can get him at his current draft position, he'll more than live up to expectations. .290-100-30-100-0 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 29 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 190 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Sandoval is only an elite contributor in average, but still provides enough HR, R, and RBI to make an impact across four categories. .330-90-30-100-5 in 585 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Somehow he was able to swipe five bags last season -- don't expect that again. .300-80-20-90-0 in 560 AB |
Analysis:
Sandoval will be among fantasy's best third baseman, and his average draft position is showing it. The 23-year old took a luge leap forward last season and may not see that kind of growth again in 2010. He'll need to significantly improve his numbers again to out-perform his current draft spot. Don't overspend for him. .320-85-25-95-3 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 32 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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32 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 162 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
At his best, Phillips will fill up all five categories. He's not elite in any one, but is very hard to find a player of such balance. .280-85-25-100-30 in 585 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If you are looking an elite source of a certain category, look elsewhere. Phillips is tailor-made for teams that build with balanced players. .270-75-18-85-20 in 560 AB |
Analysis:
Phillips remains a stud player at a position that usually lacks depth (second base). Although he's been trending down in home runs for the last three seasons, Phillips remains the most reliable power option from the position behind Kinsler and Utley and is a safe source of speed. There's no question Phillips will hit the 20/20 club again in 2010, maybe even 25/25. He's the perfect player for anyone who likes to build teams on balance. Phillips will come at a price -- anything after the third round should be considered a steal. He may not be truly elite at his position, but his consistency elevates him in a class above the Pedroias, Canos, and Hills of the world. .275-80-20-90-25 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 35 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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32 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 168 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ethier has increased his home run totals each year that he has played, posting 31 in 2009. Part of that is increased at-bats, but Ethier also put the ball in the air with greater regularity -- a significant 0.92 GB/FB, compared with 1.3 in the previous two seasons. Almost 10% more of his AB resulted in fly balls, and that means more home runs. Whether he can carry that over (or if it is desirable, see: negatives) is another question, but the extra fly balls came mainly at the expense of line drives, so presumably a regression would mean a return to a higher batting average. Ethier drove in 106 runs despite batting only .250 with RISP. It's hard to predict RISP, but were he to increase his efficiency there, a high RBI total would follow. Ethier turns 28 in April, so he is in the prime of his productive career. He's maddeningly inconsistent, but is so good (21 home runs and 57 RBI in 78 games from June to August last season) when hot that one can afford to wait out the lean stretches. .270-95-35-110-5 in 600 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
Much of Ethier's value is predicated on two things -- his ability to stay in the middle of the batting order and his ability to put the ball in the air. The Dodgers are notorious in in using different lineups daily, and with Ethier's propensity to disappear, that could mean many at bats in non-productive slots. If he returns to his previous fly ball rates, he becomes a 20 home run, .290 hitter, rather than a .270-something, 30 home run hitter -- a trade-off few fantasy owners would take. .280-75-20-80-5 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Many people remarked on the contrast between Andre Ethier's performance with Manny Ramirez than without him in 2008 and predicted similar results for 2009. Owners were generally rewarded for doing so, however Ethier had an even larger inconsistency in previous seasons without Manny being involved. Ethier is capable of performing with the best sluggers out there for long stretches of time, followed by weeks and weeks of lack of production. On balance, the 28 year-old (in April) will produce season-end numbers that make him just a rung below the top groups of outfielders. Just remember to carry plenty of antacid.
Ethier's numbers against left-handers are very poor and have declined each year to a sub-Mendoza performance last season with a correspondingly bad .629 OPS. Although in general it's not a good practice to consider "protection" in real baseball or fantasy, for players with Ethier's increasingly extreme split, he's a lot more likely to find pitches in RBI situations with a big right-handed hitter hitting behind him (and here were are talking about Manny Ramirez). Placement in the order will be very important for Ethier
Watch also Ethier's fly ball rate (use the fly balls separated from line drives), as this should give you a good idea whether Ethier will be the .300/20 home run version or the .275/30 home run version. .275-95-30-105-5 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 36 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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31 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 225 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
McCann followed up his stellar 2008 season with another strong effort in '09, smacking out 21 homers and plating 94 RBI while batting .281. Though he has played four full seasons in the bigs, McCann is still just 26 years old and should continue to produce at a high level for years to come. His 94 RBI last year was a career best, and he is a virtual lock to be right around 20 homers and 90 ribbies again in 2010. .300-75-28-100-5 in 520 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While that .281 last year looks nice, it represented a 20-point decline from the .301 McCann batted in 2008. His walk rate, slugging percentage and OPS all took a sharp drop as well -- leading many to wonder whether he'll ever approach the .333 he stroked out back in 2006. .275-55-20-80-0 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
McCann is a solid and reliable producer, but may not be worth his price in single-catcher leagues. There are several backstops available late in the draft that are capable of launching 20 bombs and knocking in 70-80 runs. Don't overpay for McCann, but he is a true "worry free" option as your Fantasy catcher. .290-65-25-90-3 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 43 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
30 |
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$ |
20 (1) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 179 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Every time Werth has been healthy, nearly 20% of his flyballs have turned into home runs, around double the league averages. Despite a career high 156 strikeouts, he actually improved his strikeout rate and walked 91 times vs. a previous career high of 57. Werth is a reliable source of additional steals. Good park, good lineup -- what's not to like? .275-100-35-100-20 in 575 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
This is the longest that Werth has played without a major injury. Although he improved his strikeout rate, 156 strikeouts is a pretty heavy number. It's not unusual for a player with this many strikeouts and of his age to decline and sometimes rapidly. .250-75-25-75-10 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Werth is one of those players who, due to his previous injury history, generates wildly divergent projections if you stick with your formulas. Werth had 571 AB last season, yet most published projections have him getting 450-500 ABs. Since the Phillies would love for Werth to get another 571 ABs, in essence, what my learned colleagues are saying is that he plays himself out of AB, except they are not, since most of them are projecting that Werth will produce at an equal or even higher rate of Home Runs and RBI. Or that he will get injured, which given how many years he battled with hand and wrist issues, is certainly possible. Of course, the projection isn't based on someone sitting down and guessing that he will miss 20 games for this- that- or the other-thing. Instead it's just an average of his previous playing time with various adjustments thrown on.
The reason I mention this is that the Phillies might give him more than the three games of rest he got last season, but it's highly unlikely they will give him 23 games of rest. So it's a better than fair bet that he'll get last years AB or he'll spend time on the DL, in which case you'll be able to slot in at least replacement level production if your league set up allows.
I've been a big fan of Jayson Werth since that first half season for the Dodgers in 2004 when he hit 16 home runs in 89 games. That number is real. In his five seasons where he has significant playing time, his HR/FB was under 18.3 (about double an average player) once, and that was the 2007 year when he was trying to play through both knee and wrist problems. .265-90-30-90-15 550ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 42 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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30 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 199 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Haren is an elite source of ERA, K and WHIP. His ratios can stabilize your totals if you want to stream pitchers through your line-up. 18-0-3.10-1.05-215 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Aside from his usual second-half drop-off, Haren is very unlucky when it comes to getting wins. Getting shoddy support from an anemic Diamondbacks offense doesn't help either. He's never eclipsed 16 wins in a season, despite the numbers of a 20-game winner. 13-0-3.30-1.15-200 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Dan Haren is a roto king. He really does it all -- at least pre-All-Star break. His high inning total allows his tremendous ratios (ERA & WHIP) to be more valuable, and his 8.75 K/9 is among the league leaders. The best strategy with Haren would be to expend a high draft pick on him, and then trade him when he's named to the All-star team. His post-break number have plunged for three consecutive years. While he still turns in some good performances, what you can get for him mid-way will be worth more than keeping him. 15-0-3.20-1.10-210 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 40 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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30 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 206 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Santana is only 31, and prior to the elbow woes retuning, he was en route to his best season since his tenure with Minnesota. Through May, Santana had struck out 86 batters in 66 innings with an ERA below 2.00. He's not the same thrower he was as a kid in Minnie, but he's clearly still a top pitcher when healthy. Even after the elbow started acting up, Santana was still, except for a couple of starts in June, a perfectly usable fantasy pitcher. Santana's stuff is so good that he was able to turn from a devastating strikeout style (withstanding 70%+ fly balls plus line drives) to a more ground ball oriented approach as the wheels didn't quite come off in July and August.
Santana is healthy, despite a report of Santana icing down his elbow (as pitchers do after workouts) causing his ADP to drop through the floor. Citi is a great field for Santana, as it depressed the one negative of the fly ball style -- the home run. Even in an "off" year, Santana posted a 2.43-1.10 in Citi, and that's not too bad, I would say. 18-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Santana was a real trooper last season, pitching with an obvious arm problem for a couple of months before shutting it down as the Mets finally succumbed to the freakish number of injuries. The real concern here remains health. After posting six straight seasons with K rates well over a K an inning, but 230 IP each year, Santana moved to the NL, where one could expect that facing the pitcher, he would have even more success. He was very good of course, but the K rate dropped below 8 (often a sign of injury or coming injury) and, well, here we are. 10-0-3.75-1.25-130 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
In 2001, Pedro Martinez experienced arm woes and was only able to tally 116+ IP. In the process, he threw up some freakish strikeout totals over the first two months of the season -- 121 K in 81 IP, which was well over his career rate. June went to hell and, unlike Santana, Pete was unable to continue much farther, making four starts in June and then a handful at the end of the year. It's eerily familiar to Santana's situation last season (Pedro was 29, Santana 30 coming into last season) with years of overuse, an initial period of extreme strikeouts (see positives), and then injury.
The good news is that Pedro came back the following year to post one of his top two or three years, going 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 239 strikeouts. You'll want to watch Johan's fly ball rates (in this case going down probably being an indication that he is switching pitches to save his arm), but there's every precedent here for excellence.
Although there are significant questions in the bullpen, and defensive metrics distinctly do not like this team (Jason Bay is rated as one of the worst outfielders, and even David Wright, who has such a good reputation, showed up poorly on the defensive metrics in 2009), there's every indication Santana will perform in this park. Moderate your bid, but he is currently going at a bargain price for his potential. 15-0-3.20-1.15-210 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 46 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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29 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 149 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Dunn was once a mortal lock for 40 HR, but last year's 38 will do. Too bad he didn't play on a better team, or he'd have definitely driven in more than 105 runs. Dunn needs to keep his average up if he wants to crack the top-50 again. .265-85-40-110-3 in 540 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Dunn strikes out a ton and is about as slow as it gets. He's in John Olerud territory when it comes to speed. If Dunn can't keep his average up, he'll become a negative player in the category, and that will severely limit his value. .240-70-30-90-0 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Adam Dunn finished as one of baseball's better performers last year because he was able to hit around .270. If he can keep that average from falling back into the .240 range he'll be a great value in 2010. .250-80-35-100-0 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 57 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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28 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 178 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Injuries derailed Berkman's 2009 season, but the slugger still managed a solid .274-73-25-80-7 line in just 460 AB. One need only look at the .312-114-29-106-18 line Berkman laid on the board in 2008 to know what he's capable of producing, and that talent will be available at a bargain price this season. .300-100-33-100-8 in 570 AB. |
Negatives/Downside:
Berkman is 34 and has a history of injuries, both nagging and major. Betting on Lance to stay on the field for 150-plus games is a risky venture, and it may well be that 2009 was the beginning of the end of Berkman's fine career. .275-75-20-75-3 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
Berkman's injury history is indeed troubling, and the depth at first base this season makes him a very risky option early in your draft's middle rounds. Don't be afraid to grab him if he falls too far, though. .285-90-28-90-5 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 58 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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28 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 154 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
When healthy Ramirez ranks amongst the betters hitters in the game. If you project A-Ram's 306 at bats in 2009 over a full season, you are looking at something in the neighborhood of .315-90-30-120-4. That's pretty darn good. If Ramirez can stay healthy in 2010 you could steal elite numbers without having to pay full price for them. .310-85-30-110-0 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Ramirez biggest downside is obviously the injury risk he carries. In fact, while he always misses sometime, 2009 ranks as the most injury plagued season of his career, which raises fears that his body may be breaking down. .290-65-20-80-0 in 400 AB |
Analysis:
Ramirez spent about half of 2009 on the shelf, but put up great numbers when he was on the field. Ramirez always misses some time, but as long as he stays healthy enough to approach 500 at-bats he will be productive enough to be an asset to any fantasy team. Of course the possibility of another major injury lingers. .300-80-25-100-0 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 53 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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28 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 159 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Wainwright enjoyed the best year of his career in 2009, setting career highs in wins and strikeouts, while posting the best ERA of his career. He clearly is a a top level ace. At only 28, he has a number of Cy Young quality years ahead of him. 18-0-2.90-1.20-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Despite the drop in ERA last season, Wanwight's WHIP climbed from 1.18 in 2008 to 1.21 last season. Usually WHIP and ERA travel up or down together, not in opposite directions, so there is reason to believe that a jump in his ERA is likely in 2010. 15-0-3.40-1.30-180 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Wainwright is a legit fantasy ace. He is in his prime, and while it may be asking too much for him to repeat his 2.63 ERA from 2010, another fantastic season can all but be assured. He tends to get less attenition that some of the other fantasy aces, making him an ever better target on draft day. 18-0-3.10-1.25-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 54 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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28 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 185 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Uggla plays long ball as very few other second basemen can -- 2009 marked his third straight season with at least 31 bombs. He has finished at least second in homers among big league second basemen each of his four seasons and has plated at least 88 RBI in each of his four MLB seasons. More of the same should be in store for 2010, and fantasy owners should once again enjoy Uggla's penchant for power pop. .260-95-33-100-5 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
What they won't enjoy is Uggla's woeful batting average, which lags well behind the average for starting big-league keystone-sackers. Uggla finished 22nd at his position in batting average last season, and with a career mark of just .257, there's not much upside here. Oh, the power will be there, but there will be a hefty price tag attached. .245-80-25-80-0 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Think of Uggla in the same terms as Carlos Pena of Tampa Bay -- they are both very good at what they can do (namely, leave the yard) and very bad at what they can't do (make contact). Both have their place in fantasy lineups, but adding either of them to your roster requires a heavy investment in high-average hitters elsewhere. With the abundance of decent options at second base this year, it's hard to recommend reaching for Uggla -- rather, wait and see if he falls too far in your draft. .250-90-30-90-3 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 65 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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27 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 141 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
El Caballo posted another solid season in 2009, launching 26 homers and plating 102 RBI while batting an even .300. His ability to hit for power and average makes Lee an attractive option among NL outfielders. he should be even better in 2010 with a healthy Lance Berkman protecting him in the lineup. .305-75-30-105-5 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Lee's home run totals have dropped each of the past three seasons, and at age 33 there's reason to believe that his big decline has begun.despite his bulk, Lee used to be good for about a dozen steals per season, but he hasn't reached double digits since 2007. .290-60-23-90-3 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
A healthy Lance Berkman should help Lee's numbers this season, but we wouldn't count on more than about 30 homers and 100 RBI. Even so, Lee provides good power and average at a reasonable price; just be sure not to overpay. .300-70-28-100-5 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 63 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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27 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 179 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
2009 was a huge resurgence for Lee. He posted his best home run total in years and set a career high with 111 RBI. He is very reliable in the average department, having posted an average of at least .285 in each of his past five seasons, including a .306 mark last season. .300-95-28-105-5 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Lee's return to being an elite power hitter came out of nowhere last season. It seems very unlikely that he will match his power totals from 2009 in 2010. In fact, prior to last season, Lee was considered by nearly everyone to be a guy firmly on the downside of his career. .285-80-20-85-0 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Lee’s 2009 was his best season since his huge 2005. Can he repeat that performance? Probably not, but he will come close. The Cubs lineup should be lethal, guaranteeing Lee plenty of opportunities to score runs and drive in his teammates. However, note that stolen bases are no longer part of his game. .295-90-25-100-3 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 59 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
27 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 139 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Manny is separated by one season from the unbelievable finish to an already fine 2008 campaign. While he was not great in 2009, pro-rated over his usual 150+ games he would have tallied 30 home runs and 90+ runs and RBI. Were it not Manny with all the expectations generated by 2008, plus the baggage generated by the substance suspension where would you take a 30-90 type outfielder with a .290 batting average? We fully support downgrading Manny off his usual expectations due to age or even just Manny-being-Manny. But we can't see pushing him down so far that it doesn't reflect the actual contributions he made last season. Even in his "bad" September on, Manny hit four home runs and drove in 14 which over seven months would be good.
Obviously Manny will be your "risk" pick, but there's nothing there to say that Manny won't still be Manny... in the good sense. .320-95-35-110-0 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Questions surround the Dodgers franchise in light of the divorce of the McCourts and the business plans drawn up for potential investors showing a planned reduction in payroll of nearly a third. The one given is that it seems unlikely that Manny could possibly be moved unless he is having a great season and the Yankees could be convinced to take some of the money remaining left on his deal that expires this season. If he's having a bad year, he'll be un-movable, as the Dodgers have no money to send with Manny and wouldn't, if this plan is to be believed, take a contract back. They'll just eat the rest of the deal and take the compensation that would come if Manny signs elsewhere next season.
Plus Manny could also still be Manny, in the bad way. And you don't want him ducking into a wall somewhere to urinate on your fantasy season. .290-75-23-80-0 in 400 AB |
Analysis:
One of the best right-handed hitters of all time and in his walk year. Even with the suspension and a poor September, Manny still produced at a .290-90-30-90-0 rate had he played 150 games. This is your risk pick, but proceed with confidence. .300-90-30-95-0 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 72 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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26 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 158 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Johnson had a breakout campaign in 2009, winning 15 games while racking up a 3.23 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 209 innings of work. The big right-hander with the upper-90s heat possesses some of the nastiest stuff in baseball and should post very strong numbers this season if he can remain healthy. 18-0-3.00-1.10-210 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Ah yes, the "if he can remain healthy" disclaimer. Fact is, last season marked the first time Johnson has eclipsed 157 innings in his four-year career, and he missed big chunks of the '07 and '08 campaigns due to injuries. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in '07, and returned to action just 11 months later. Johnson's stuff isn't in doubt, but his ability to stay out there and throw it certainly should be. 8-0-3.50-1.30-125 in 145 IP |
Analysis:
Johnson is something of a health risk, but his enormous upside and relative bargain price make him a pitcher worth targeting once the big names are off the board. Look for Josh as your No. 2 Fantasy starter in your draft's middle rounds, but don't be surprised if he ends up as your No. 1 guy by the end of the season. 15-0-3.30-1.20-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 68 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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26 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 192 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Quite simply, Carpenter is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy. Few others can match the ERA and WHIP he will post, and he will win plenty of games pitching for one of the better teams in baseball, the Cards. His upside is huge, if he can stay healthy. 18-0-2.80-1.00-150 in 200 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Carpenter turns 35 in April, and he missed nearly all of 2007 and 2008 with injuries. He was great last year, but his body is too worn down to expect him to last through a full season even relatively. Lastly, he doesn't strikeout batters at the rate other elite options do, meaning even if he is healthy, his strikeouts total won't be exceptional. 13-0-3.20-1.15-110 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
Although he has been eclipsed by teammate Adam Wainwright in the fantasy game, Carpenter still ranks as the Cards ace, and with good reason. When healthy he is the better pitcher... when healthy. Carpenter ranks as one of the biggest injury risks in baseball but could pay off huge if you're willing to take the risk. Right now (Friday, February 19th, 2010 at 10:48 AM EST), Carpenter is healthy. Of course, that could all change before the top of the hour. 15-0-3.00-1.08-140 in 180 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 69 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
26 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 170 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Victorino will likely bat at the top of one of the most potent offense in baseball and this guarantees that his excellent run rates will continue... Although Victorino has plenty of speed, one should not expect a return to 2008 steals levels unless he moves to lead-off (or to the back of the order). One does not take the bat out of Ryan Howard's hands... Vicky's strikeout rates and walk rates have trended in the right direction since becoming a full-timer, so we should not be surprised that his batting average has increased... In July of 2008, Victorino hit 7 homers, leading many people to believe that he would strengthen the power component of his game (those people probably overpaid for 2009 and hate the man now). Some players of Victorino's ilk play for contact generally, but have latent power in situations where they are asked to do so. This is almost always reflected by a decrease in ground balls. In Vicorino's mythic July, his GB/FB remained the same -- he just hit nearly 20% of his fly balls into the bleachers, which only happens with the top power hitters. In short, it was luck, and you shouldn't count on it happening again. .300-100-10-60-28 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If Victorino is only hitting 10 home runs and stealing 25 bases, he's part of a very large group of players who are going for a heckuva a lot less. There's some talk that with Polanco on board Victorino moves to the bottom end of the order, in which case it's bye-bye 100 runs... It's not that Victorino does anything badly -- it's that unless he is stealing 35 bases, he doesn't do enough of anything to differentiate himself from the Marlon Byrds of this world who are going for half the price. .285-85-5-50-23 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
The Flyin' Hawaiian is in his prime, batting at the top (or bottom) of a high powered offense. Reliability is the key for this run-scorer. If he remains in front of Ryan Howard,a he is unlikely to be a top base stealer, and if he moves down in the order, he is likely to run more but is unlikely to score 100 runs. His upside is limited. .290-95-8-55-25 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 73 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
25 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 136 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Broxton Struck out more people than starters Derek Lowe, Jon Garland or Joel Pineiro. A lot of people ignore the effects of closer statistics on their overall numbers, but wouldn't you rather have Max Scherzer than Jason Hammel? Broxton struck out 42 more than Mariano Rivera. 5-40-2.40-1.05-110 in 85 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The strikeout were nice, but the seven wins were Broxton's main boost. Vulture wins like this are next to impossible to predict. With an unlikely looking starting rotation and the possibility of a fire sale as mentioned in the recently made public business plan, it's not a certain thing that he will be able to improve upon his 36 saves from 2009. 3-35-3.10-1.20-85 in 70 IP |
Analysis:
Because of his superlative strikeout totals (better than some low-end starters), Broxton is one of the few closers worth an investment. While his save totals may not equal other closers, and one shouldn't expect a repeat of the seven wins, they certainly won't be that much worse. As a result we like him better than some of the usual candidates. 5-38-2.75-1.10-95 in 75 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 25 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
25 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bourn can flat-out fly, and he proved that in 2009 by stealing an NL-best 61 bases. He also slugged 12 triples and batted a respectable .285, establishing himself as one of baseball's top speedsters. He should once again bat atop what figures to be an improved Astros lineup -- especially if slugger Lance Berkman can stay healthy for the entire season. .280-100-8-55-60 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Bourn's complete lack of pop -- he managed only 16 homers in four minor league seasons and just three last year -- should signal that he is indeed a one-trick pony. Factor in that his career batting average is a pedestrian .262 and that he fanned a whopping 140 times last season, and you have a bust waiting to, well... burst. .260-80-4-45-45 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Bourn's plate discipline is his bane, but he improved his OBP skills in 2009. If he can continue that trend, he'll be well worth a mid-round pick in fantasy drafts this season. The abundance of speed available late, though, makes us hesitant to recommend reaching for Bourn... rather, we'd recommend waiting until the price is right. .270-90-5-50-55 in 610 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 85 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
24 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 164 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
McCutchen took over the Pirates center field job at age 22. When you are looking at his numbers, keep telling yourself that. McCutchen jumped to double-A ball at the age of 19, then to triple-A the following season at age 20. In both cases he didn't exactly excel, but he did hold his own (particularly impressive at double-A Altoona -- "the Curve" is not a great place to hit). He hit .291 over a bit more than one full season in Indianapolis before the trade of Nate McLouth elevated him to the show where again he held his own... If you telescope his stats out over a whole season, you essentially have Shane Victorino, except a few more steals and home runs and a few less runs. And he's 22. And he's not costing you Victorino money (hint, hint). .295-100-18-70-40 in 625 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's a PIRATE fer crying out loud. Garrett Jones is going to drive him in? Andy LaRoche? One year we played the strategy of streaming whatever pitcher was facing the Kansas City Royals regardless of pedigree, isn't this a time to just bet against every single Pirate? .280-75-10-50-25 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
It's easy enough to dismiss McCutchen's potential based on his minor league numbers. Nothing superlative jumps out until you realize that he made it to the starting center field position of a major league team (insert Pittsburgh Pirate joke here) at age 22. He probably won't reach 100 runs because it's not exactly Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth hitting behind him, but would it be surprising if he surpassed Shane Victorino in stolen bases, RBI and home runs? And with a comparable batting average and just a tick fewer runs? .290-90-15-60-35 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 84 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
24 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 196 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
In trying to predict AL/NL switches for pitchers, there are a couple of things to keep in mind. Strikeout-types will tend to benefit more from facing the pitchers in the NL, and pitchers who don't give up hits will suffer less moving to the junior circuit. Although Peavy is a fine strikeout pitcher, the main reason he succeeds is that he doesn't allow hits -- 7.72/9 for his career. He should continue to be one of the top pitchers in baseball.
Peavy, like most pitchers, gives up more home runs outside of Petco than in, but aside from 2008, the split has been pretty mild and his overall rates outside of Petco are well above league average in any case. Further, Peavy's 3.45 ERA last season was almost entirely a fluke. His WHIP and HR rates were better than 2008 when he posted a 2.85. Peavy's numbers should translate very well from the NL into the AL. 18-0-2.90-1.05-200 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The percentage call on Peavy would be to take last year's results and round up due to the move to AL and from a run-sucking vortex like Petco into a moderately healthy hitter's park. Even if he doesn't give up hits, This Jake isn't facing the pitcher, and that means at least 0.5 fewer K's per start, so perhaps 15 or 16 fewer then That Jake if he can remain healthy the bulk of the season. So That 215 K Peavy becomes This 200 K Peavy, and while still good, in combination with the expected hit on ERA and WHIP, that puts him down to the next tier. 15-0-3.30-1.15-175 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
This Jake plays in a hitters park facing the DH and That Jake played in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks ever. But This Jake still doesn't give up hits, is still stingy with the long ball (far better than average even on the road), and is likely to K close to 9/9 even without facing the pitcher. Plus, he's playing on a better team.
That's not to say you want to spend as if he was Tim Lincecum, nor expect that he will perform that way -- but I'd take him before a closer or a power challenged OF (without balancing speed). 18-0-3.00-1.05-195 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 82 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
24 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 168 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
It was well-known last spring that Hanson was a great prospect, but the future became "now" in a hurry, as the Braves' wunderkind racked up 11 wins, posted a 2.89 ERA and fanned 116 hitters in 127.2 innings pitched. Hanson's ceiling is enormous, and there's no reason to believe that he won't build on his '09 success and become one of baseball's top hurlers in 2010. 18-0-2.95-1.15-190 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Simmer down now, Tigger -- before you go off to engrave his plaque for Cooperstown, let's keep in mind that Hanson has thrown just over a half season's worth of innings in the bigs. Hitters will invariably adjust to him, and unless he adapts in kind, he'll struggle. Baseball history is littered with hot-shot young pitchers who started off like a house afire, and ended up the same way -- a smoldering pile of ashes. Hanson's talented, but until he shows his stuff for at least a full season it's hard to buy in on the whole "ace" thing. 13-0-3.45-1.30-145 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
Hanson looks like a special talent, and this may be the last year that he'll be available at less than a premium price. 15-0-3.25-1.20-170 in 195 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
24 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 145 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
McLouth possesses both power and speed, and he has smacked at least 20 homers two straight seasons and and stolen at least 19 bags three straight years. More of the same should be in store for 2010. .275-95-25-85-25 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
McLouth can stripe 'em and swipe 'em all right, but at what cost? His batting average has dropped each of the past two season, and the .276 he posted back in '07 is looking like the exception rather than the rule. With all of the cheap speed available out there, McLouth's modest skill set simply isn't worth the price. .260-75-18-65-18 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
McLouth will provide modest help in at least three categories, but his batting average could be a killer. He's not a bad pick 10-12 rounds or so into your draft, but he generally won't last that long. Pass on him and grab someone like Torii Hunter later on. .265-90-20-75-20 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 93 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 154 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Pence rebounded from a lackluster 2008 to post a strong line of .282-76-25-72-14 last season, while displaying the blend of speed and power that so endeared him to fantasy managers during his breakout 2007 campaign. His OBP jumped nicely upward last year, while his K rate dropped appreciably from his 2008 effort. Pence's best years may still lie ahead of him, and if last season was any indication, they should be exciting years indeed. .295-95-28-90-18 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Pence is not a very efficient base stealer (11 CS in 25 attempts last year), and his OBP skills are still rather mediocre. He batted a pedestrian .263 in the second half last season, while posting a lackluster .792 OPS. Which Hunter Pence will show up in 2010? .275-80-20-75-10 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Pence's inconsistency makes him something of a draft day gamble, but his five-category game is just too attractive to pass up. He may be limited by a weak supporting cast, but Pence should again provide at least serviceable production in most fantasy hitting categories this season. There is still a fair amount of upside here as well. Don't reach, but don't flinch, either. .290-90-25-85-15 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 87 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 156 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Although pitchers progress at different rates than hitters, Hamels is well on the good side of the development curve at age 26. Despite the rise in hit rates and ERA (see negatives) he was probably at least as good a pitcher in 2009 as he was in 2008 despite getting a slow start... Much has been made of Hamel's decline in strikeout rates each season prior to 2009, but if we view his 9.86 K/9 in 1332+ IP, his rookie season as the outlier, the following numbers 8.69, 7.76, 7.81 look stable... Oddly, Hamels fared much better in the hitting-friendly Citizens Bank park that on the road. We would expect that to turn around as it was in 2008 (see negatives re: his 2008 unearned runs at home)... If Hamels is healthy, you can expect big things from the lefty. 18-0-3.40-1.15-205 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The contrast between Hamels' 2008 and and 2009 is less than it appears. Although it is true that his in-play rates were quite a lot worse in 2009 (BABIP of .325 vs. 2008's .270) the main issue here is that the home scorers decided to give Cole 8 unearned runs (vs. 3 on the road) in 2008 and a total of only 2 (1 each home and road) in 2009. Almost every other secondary number was the same or even slightly better (strikeout and walk rates, home run rates) in 2009. Like so many BABIP observations, this one turns out to be so much vapour when you examine the splits and see the line drive rates he put up while pitching early in the season having missed much of spring training... The bad news here is that Hamels is probably closer to the pitcher he was in 2009 than 2008. The good news is that that really isn't too bad, and he is reported to be healthy and on schedule to start the season. 13-0-3.80-1.25-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Cole Hamels has been a solid fantasy starting pitcher on a solid team. Expect to see his hit rates and road statistics stabilize and for the lefty to put in more than 200 IP. 18-0-3.50-1.20-200 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 91 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 174 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
K-Rod is the major league single-season record-holder in saves. And despite a bit of a tumble the past two seasons, he still strikes out around 10 per nine innings. As a 65-70 IP reliever, the non-elite WHIP is not really an issue and last season's 3.71 ERA was his first time over 3.00 since his rookie season as a set-up guy in Anaheim. He's pitching in a good park with a team that should enjoy quite a lot better health. You'd prefer a bit more help in the bullpen, but with Maine and Santana theoretically healthy, K-Rod should get more opportunities to pick up saves. 3-40-3.05-1.15-80 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
K/9 since 2007: 12.03, 10.14, 9.66 and although it is admittedly a small sample, he threw out a less than acceptable 6.75/1.42 line after the break last season. The Angels probably don't regret sending him out in the final week in non-save situations when the team had clinched the play-offs during his record breaking year, but perhaps the Mets have some thought on that. He looks like he is injured. 3-33-3.60-1.25-65 in 55 IP |
Analysis:
What does the major league season record holder in saves have to do to get a little respect? For one, stop walking five per nine innings pitched. Clearly K-Rod could be just a rung below the elite closers if he is healthy and the Mets deliver him opportunities. But (see negatives), he sure looks like there is something wrong. Perhaps the off-season has fixed it, and he was excellent before the break last season (23 saves 1.90 ERA), but there are likely other save options at this price, it's too much risk for too little impact on your staff. 3-35-3.50-1.20-73 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 88 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 168 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Dominating pitcher whose increased strikeout rate is perfectly in line with his minor league numbers. Limits hits and can survive elevated walk rates. Appears to be fully healthy and primed to become a Cy Young candidate. 20-0-3.00-1.05-240 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Theres' nothing to regress to. So if Gallardo fail it will be because of injuries. The worst that could be said is a return to his excellent 2009 levels. 13-0-3.73-1.31-204 in 185 IP |
Analysis:
Gallardo is a star. He was 23 last season and excelled while walking well over four a game. The only way you can do that is the way Gallardo did, which is to miss bats with 204 strikeouts and 150 hits over 185+ innings. Unlike pitchers like Jonathan Sanchez or Oliver Perez who become usable when they walk a few less, Gallardo was nearly a fantasy rotation anchor while he was walking a career high. Now watch what happens when he heads back to the 3.01 he was doing before last season. 18-0-3.15-1.10-220 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 89 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 202 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Kershaw was striking out people at 10+ a game as a 19 year old in double-A. His strikeout rate is real. He's tremendously hard to hit -- only 119 hits in 171 innings pitched -- so despite walking 4.79 per 9, he still was able to manage a healthy 1.23 WHIP. His minor league records suggest both these are real... and he's all of 22 years old in March. Although he cut his HR/FB more than in half, the 2008 totals look more like the statistical outlier -- and no surprise, given he was a 21-year-old with only 16 starts at double-A and no triple-A experience whatsoever. He's the real deal, and watch out if he can knock even a small amount off his walk rates. 18-0-3.20-1.20-210 in 190 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Kershaw is frustrating for fantasy owners. Because of his walk totals, he rarely worked late in games, and this affected his strikeout totals and amount of decisions he received. He can't be expected to maintain this home run rate and some regression in the hits allowed wouldn't be unexpected either. 10-0-3.65-1.40-190 in 170 IP |
Analysis:
Bill James devoted quite a bit of his early national career talking about how one gets to the Hall of Fame. And what he found that the three best ways to get there were to be a key member of a Yankee's championship team, a friend of (or contemporaneous with) certain members of the Veteran's Committee (under the rules in effect at that time) and most importantly, get to the big leagues EARLY. All those milestone numbers become harder and harder the later you arrive in the game.
Kershaw got to the bigs at age 20. He held his own and then some in 2008 and then was impressive in 2009 (even more impressive if you toss out his 7+ ERA first month). There's a long way to go and many stops along the way, but even if the train he is on doesn't go straight to Cooperstown, he's certainly on the right branch line.
It's reasonably obvious that his walks will be an impediment to him in all kinds of ways (see negatives), and for him to be a quality fantasy starter, he's going to have to start working more deeply into games, which will result in more strikeouts and more decisions per start. But when you are reaching triple digit pitches in the fifth inning, you are never going to get a lot of wins, and even a sparkling K rate won't get you a plus number of strikeouts.
We love Kershaw, but it's just a guess which year, if any, he'll be able to post 200 innings. When he does, he's likely to be amongst the very best fantasy properties. 15-0-3.45-1.30-200 in 180 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 90 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 192 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cain should turn in an above average ERA, while finishing with very respectable totals in WHIP, K, and wins. Nothing too special. |
Negatives/Downside:
Cain was extremely lucky with his balls in play last season, and it's likely that doesn't last two years in a row. |
Analysis:
Cain is coming off a terrific season, but he faltered down the stretch. I would stay away from Cain, because it's unlikely that he can produce the same line as last year. He'll be a decent contributor all four pitching categories, but elite at none. There's very little difference between Cain and the starters going four rounds later. 13-0-3.30-1.25-170 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 92 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 163 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Nolasco overcame a bumpy start by finishing 2009 with a flourish, posting a 7-2 record, 4.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in the second half -- while striking out 105 batters in 97.1 innings of work. Nolasco's 195 strikeouts was the seventh-best K total in the National league, and more of the same should be in store for 2010. 18-0-3.60-1.18-210 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
If "more of the same" includes another ERA of five-plus, then count us out. Even when he was going well last season, Nolasco was maddeningly inconsistent -- mixing strings of quality starts with occasional implosions. We need to see more before investing an extra dollar in Nolasco. 10-0-4.30-1.25-180 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Nolasco's inflated ERA of a season ago should hold his draft day price down, and that's a good thing -- for we believe the Marlins' right-hander is in for a fine season in 2010. 15-0-3.85-1.20-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 103 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
22 |
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0.0 (0) |
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