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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 226  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
A-Rod is healthy and ready to have a monster 2010. He finished 2009 off strong, proving that the struggles he had after returning in May from a hip injury were nothing more than rust. Batting in the heart of the Yankees line-up will offer Rodriguez ample opportunities to drive in and score runs. Rodriguez will be an elite option for runs, HR, and RBI, and will post a high enough average and steal enough bases to help your team as well. .300-115-40-125-20 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Although always good, Rodriguez's numbers have been inconsistent through the years. For example, his 54 homeruns in 2007 were sandwiched between years of hitting 35 homeruns in both 2006 and 2008. His batting average also tends to fluctuate between good and great. Also, while A-Rod is fully recovered from his 2009 hip injury, at 34-years old he qualifies as a higher injury risk than the other elite fantasy options. .280-100-30-110-15 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
Rodriguez is a surefire first round pick in draft leagues and someone to build your offense around in auction leagues. The fact that he has the potential to be the most productive offensive player in 2010 justifies taking him with the third overall pick, but grabbing him with the fourth or fifth pick should he slip is a lot safer. Be willing to pay market value for Rodriguez, but don't go overboard. .290-105-35-120-20 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 3 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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45 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 135 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Teixeira really enjoyed his first season in pinstripes, and there is no reason to think he won’t enjoy his second. Teixeira's 2009 numbers with the Yankees were nearly identical to the numbers he put up in 2008 with the Braves and Angels, and I expect more of the same in 2010. He is a top notch option for runs, homeruns, and RBI, and always seem to post an average right around .300. As with all the Yankees' starters, batting in the Yanks' formidable line-up and playing at the new Yankee stadium will help him post an impressive stat line. .310-110-40-130-5 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
What seperates Teixeira from the very elite is his inability to steal bases. He is likely to be the first player off the board who will not post double digit steals. There really isn't anything else negative to say about Teixeira. .290-95-30-110-0 in 580 AB |
Analysis:
Teixeira is one of the safest picks you can make. His consistency makes him a valuable fantasy commodity. I would rather have the fourth or fifth pick in a draft so I can grab Braun or Utley, because the next four or five picks seem interchangeable depending on preference. In auctions, he is a great guy to target, because he won't demand the same attention as some of the other elite options. You are far more likely to get Teixeira at a discounted price than you are to pull in someone like A-Rod or Hanley Ramirez at less than face value. .300-100-35-120-3 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 8 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
41 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 142 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Longoria became one of the game's best hot corner men in 2009, and at age 24 his best years almost certainly still lie ahead. Longo is a polished hitter who has power to all fields, and certainly has the tools to hit .300 in the bigs. He will once again bat third in what projects to be one of baseball's better lineups, and more big numbers should be in store for 2010 -- and well beyond. .290-110-40-125-10 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Longoria's on-base skills are good, not great -- and being more selective at the plate might help him to cut down on the 140 strikeouts he racked up in 2009. Like most young players, Longo may be prone to extended slumps. .275-95-30-110-5 in 580 AB |
Analysis:
If you play in a dynasty league, look no further for your third baseman than Number 3. In seasonal leagues, he's still a player to build the rest of your team around. .285-105-35-120-10 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 9 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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41 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 144 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cabrera is a truly elite player who can hep you dominate four different categories. Miggy will provide some gaudy numbers in in R, RBI and HR, but he can really help you tyrannize batting average. .325-100-38-120-3 in 615 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Speed. Cabrera runs more like Cecil Fielder than Ricky Henderson, so it's very unlikely he'll ever reach double digit steals. .300-90-30-100-0 in 580 AB |
Analysis:
Cabrera recommitted himself to baseball in the off season and looks to make a huge impact in 2009. Miggy is about as consistent as you can get. Pencil him in for a .315+ average, along with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI & R. If the rumors about his improved conditioning are true, he may even chip in a few steals. There aren't many safer picks on the board than Cabrera, so draft him and reap the rewards all season long. .315-95-35-110-3 in 605 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 10 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
40 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 147 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The AL batting champ 3 of the last 4 years and will give you a definitive advantage in that category. He throws in some quality numbers in HR, RBI and runs as well, making him, hands down, the best catching option on the board. .345-100-30-100-5 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Mauer may have trouble replicating his 2009 stat line, which was one of the best for catcher in the history of baseball. He won't contribute much in the speed department and, being a catcher, will play fewer games than the rest of the top-25 players. .310-90-20-90-3 in 490 AB |
Analysis:
Mauer missed the first month of the 2009 season due to a back injury and still hit a remarkable .365-94-28-96. If your fantasy team wants to have the #1 catcher, this is your man, but you'd better be looking to draft him late in the first or early in the second round or he will be gone. The problem is that there is no value in selecting him that high. He will clearly be the best catcher, but he will not live up to the draft spot where you take him. .330-95-25-95-3 in 530 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 13 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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39 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 99 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Crawford's game is speed, speed and more speed, and the 28-year-old set a new career standard by swiping 60 bags last season. This wasn't exactly rarefied air for CC, though, as he has posted 50 or more steals five times in his six full big league seasons. .305-105-15-80-70 in 610 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
Crawford's on-base skills are rather pedestrian, and he strikes out a lot for a speed merchant. His stolen base success rate dropped off rather dramatically as the season went on last year, raising concerns that he may have been tiring. If his hamstrings act up... .290-90-10-65-50 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
After suffering through an injury-riddled 2008 season, Crawford bounced back nicely last year, whacking 15 homers and batting .305. He's likely to be playing for a big free agent deal this year, and some monster numbers could be in store. .300-100-15-75-65 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 14 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
38 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 127 1 |
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Positives/Upside:
Very few players have Kinsler's multi-category potential. Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley are in a class of their own at second base, blending a perfect balance of speed and power into their games. Kinsler is one of baseball's only players that will challenge 30 HR and 30 SB. On top of that, he'll be an elite source of runs and contribute an above average RBI total. Kinsler will likely be a top-15 pick, and you can have a huge advantage at the position with him in your line-up. .280-105-30-90-30 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Painfully low batting average in 2009 (.253) will need to increase for Kinsler to be a truly elite fantasy contributor. Last year's 144 games was a career high, as he has historically been an injury risk. .255-85-15-75-15 in 520 AB
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Analysis:
Kinsler is the second best player at his position, with the ability to out-produce Chase Utley. If Kinsler can stay healthy all year, he could end up as the premier second baseman heading into 2011. He'll go a round later and about $7-10 cheaper in drafts, making him a better value. .270-100-25-85-25 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 16 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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37 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 102 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ellsbury led the majors with 70 steals in 2009 and is a good bet to do so again in 2010. Batting leadoff for the Red Sox all but gaurantees a ton of runs. A batting average right around the .300 mark seems like a strong bet, and Ellsbury's 60 RBI in 2009 is more than you'll get from most lead-off hitters. Now 26, there is a chance that Ellsbury will develop his power some in the coming years and consistently post double digit home run totals. .300-100-10-60-70 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Obviously 70 stolen bases is extremely valuable from a fantasy perspective, but Ellsbury will help you less in home runs and RBI than any other hitter who commands as much attention as he will. Furthermore, the possibility exists that Ellsbury's 70 steals in 2009 are the most we'll ever see from him. .285-85-3-50-50 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Ellsbury will single-handedly keep you at the top of the heap in stolen bases. However, don't expect 70 steals again. If you do choose to acquire Ellsbury, be sure you supplement him with a couple of lower end power options later in your draft or auction. .295-90-5-55-65 in 610 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 20 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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35 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 114 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The King will chip in elite totals in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and wins. There are very few pitchers who deliver the fantasy impact of Felix Hernandez. 20-0-2.70-1.15-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Conditioning. Hernandez looks like he's on some sort of Mo Vaughn/David Wells diet. It didn't affect his performance last year, but it's always a concern. 15-0-3.10-1.25-190 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Hernandez had a dominant 2009. If it weren't for the God-like efforts of Zack Greinke, he would have been a unanimous choice for the Cy Young. The scary part? He's only 23, and the best is yet to come. Place 'The King' at the top of your AL draft boards -- yes, even ahead of Greinke. 18-0-2.90-1.20-200 in 220 IP
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| Recommended Draft Position: 24 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
34 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Things couldn't have gone better for V-Mart in 2009. He bounced back from a disappointing 2008 and was dealt out of Cleveland to the Red Sox, where he'll have ample RBI opportunities and score a lot of runs. A full year in Boston could result in career highs in runs, home runs, and RBI. V-Mart is an elite option at catcher. .300-90-25-100-0 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Whenever a player has a down year like Martinez did in 2008, at least some concern exists that another poor season is a possibility. While Martinez's 2008 can be explained by the injuries he struggled with that season, the chance of another injury does linger, especially since Martinez will be play primarily behind the plate in 2010. .275-80-15-90-0 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Martinez does qualify as an injury risk in 2010, but the reward of having a catcher that can produce like Martinez outweighs the risk. Filling one of your catcher's spots with Martinez is a smart move in 2010. .290-85-20-95-0 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 30 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 140 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Sizemore is entering his age 27 season, and all indications are that his elbow and other issues have been resolved. He had improved his strikeout rate prior to 2009, and for all the difficulties of 2009, he maintained that improved rate (down to 5:1 from a more dangerous 4:1). Likewise his groundball, flyball and contact rates were largely unchanged. Sizemore didn't take a step back -- he was "just" hurt (tell that to the commish in your money league). That means a great opportunity for you if he is healthy. We have Size going for $33 or 31st, but he's essentially the same player that was the first outfielder taken in many, if not most leagues last year. While due to batting average concerns we couldn't see him as a better prospect than Braun or Kemp for this season, there's no question that if he returned to his 30+/30+ levels, he would earn first-round money. And other than health, there appears to be nothing to keep him from doing so. .290-100-30-100-35 in 650 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The Russell Branyan signing doesn't in any way fix the potential context problems that all Cleveland hitters will face (including everyone's darling pick Choo). Michael Brantley brings considerable on-base skills to the team, but he has struggled the first time through in both double- and triple-A, and there's every possibility that he will do the same in the show, in which case Sizemore might have less attractive options hitting in front of him (or he even gets moved to the front of the order). It's also not uncommon for players with this type of ailment to lose power. .265-70-20-70-20 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
This is Sizemore's age-27 season, and none of his secondary numbers reflect any diminution of his considerable skills despite a lost season due to injuries. Assuming he is healthy (and all indications are that he will be) he represents a high-end power/speed combination. Batting average is always a concern with Sizemore, but other than last year his career low is .268. That's not a plus, but it's not a huge minus.
The question here is context. The Indians look like a team with a whole lot of nothing on base unless Michael Brantley can succeed right away at the big league level. Other than Shin-Soo Choo, there are no "plus" on-base players and the signing of Russell Branyan is not going to help this. The days of Travis Hafner and V-Mart in their prime and on the Tribe are over. Whatever Sizemore does, it will be without a lot of help. Even with an ideal lineup for Sizemore, with Brantley and Cabrera in front and Choo behind, it's hard to put together enough runs to move his runs and RBI from good up to excellent. .275-95-28-95-35 in 625 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 31 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 167 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Greinke may not reach the levels of a 2.16 ERA again, but even a slight drop off will still have him among the league's best fantasy pitchers. 18-0-2.60-1.10-240 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
His biggest negative is what he did last season. He's currently going for too much in drafts, leaving comparable pitchers to be taken at a better value. 13-0-3.30-1.30-200 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Greinke has come a long way in his 6 seasons, from being a 21 year old rookie in 2004 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, to a horrible sophomore campaign which saw him post a 5-17 record, 5.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, to almost being completely out of baseball in '06 with personal issues, and then coming back to pitch two very good seasons in 2007 and in 2008 when he went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 183 K in 202 IP. Then he put it all together for one of the best fantasy seasons in recent memory, winning the CY Young in the process. Because of this, Greinke will be way over-valued, as you'll be paying for last season's numbers that he may have trouble replicating. He'll be fine as your fantasy ace, but there's better value to be had. 15-0-3.00-1.20-225 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 27 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 97 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
No one in the majors does more with less than Pedroia. What Pedroia lacks in raw talent, he makes up for with effort. Hitting in the two-hole in the potent Sox line-up will help Pedroia keep pace with his 2009, during which he scored 115 runs and stole 20 bases. While his 2009 season wasn't on par with his MVP 2008 season, he really only saw a significant dip in average and a slight drop in RBI. To say 2009 was a true disappointment unfairly takes away from what was in actuality a very good season. .315-115-15-75-20 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The 30 point dip in average Pedroia experienced in 2009 as compared to 2008 is concerning, even if he did finish at nearly .300. A drop from 83 RBI in 2008 to 72 in 2009 is also a concern. It looks like Pedroia will always chase that magical 2008 season, and his 2009 stat line is more in line with what to expect from him. .290-100-10-65-10 in 590 AB |
Analysis:
Perhaps it was a slight disappointment, but Pedroia's 2009 season was still extremely good. In fact, I like him more as someone to target this season since the inflated expectations from his 2008 season will no longer be hanging over him. .300-110-15-70-15 in 620 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 34 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
32 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 128 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
CC's first year with the Yanks would have to qualify as a success. After all, he won 19 games and was amongst the AL leaders in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. Pitching for the World Champs guarantees close to twenty wins again, and 200 strikeouts is well within reach for CC. 20-0-3.10-1.10-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The move from the NL to AL caused CC's numbers to go from ridiculous in 2008 to just really good in 2009. He saw his ERA and WHIP rise and his strikeout total dip in 2009. Expect numbers more like his 2009 totals than his incredible 2008. Pitching in the AL is just that much more difficult than pitching in the NL. 15-0-3.50-1.20-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
CC still qualifies as a fantasy ace and is about as reliable as they come. As long as you don't go wild and chase the numbers he put up with the Brewers, CC will make you happy in 2010. 20-0-3.35-1.15-205 in 235 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 33 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
32 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 110 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Except for an injury plagued 2007, Jason Bay has delivered at least 101-31-101 every season since 2005 (and hit 26 dingers in 120 games the year before in his first season as a full-timer). He's also delivered double digit steals each year (2007 excepted). While his batting average has been all over the map, Bay has delivered exactly what was advertised season-in and season-out -- power, runs and some bonus steals.
Bay moves from Fenway (but he hit more home runs on the road last season) into a Mets lineup that should at least be healthier than what it was last season (how could it not be?). Despite all the talk that the Metropolitans' new home is depressing offense, in fact, the Mets ranked higher in runs scored at home than on the road. With part of the center field wall being lowered from 16' to 8', perhaps even the home run rates will rebound a bit.
This will be Bay's age-31 season (turning 32 in Sept), and there is no reason to think he will get many fewer opportunities to do damage for his owners. .285-105-30-110-10 in 575 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Despite averaging over 150 games played each year over the last five campaigns, Bay has been nagged by knee and shoulder woes his entire career. His strikeout rates have always been ominous, and they leaped to 30.5% in 2009, his worst marker in five seasons. The season after his previous high water mark on total strikeouts was the 2007 season, where he posted a line of .247-78-21-84-4 in 538 AB. That's his approximate downside in 2010: .250-80-20-85-5 in 530 AB
We don't anticipate that moving back to the Senior circuit after a bit more than a season will affect Bay adversely, but the Met's lineup is weaker than the Red Sox and even if the hitting woes at Citi are exaggerated,it is still not Fenway. As with all hitters of this type, the increase in srikeouts may presage a decline .260-90-24-90-5. 525ABs |
Analysis:
Jason Bay has earned fantasy owners quite a lot over the past five seasons as one of the most consistent 30-100 type outfielders over the period. That he runs a little and runs efficiently has been a nice little bonus for Bay owners. An old rule of thumb says that the later that a player comes up the earlier he burns out and while that may be true of the general population, it's mainly because in general the players who get called up early are the better players. When a good player, like Bay, arrive late (and to be fair, he was 24) there's no real reason to think he'll fade early. Bay has largely been a top notch offensive performer and, despite all the gloom and doom talk, is coming off career highs in both home runs and RBI. Most of the home runs came from on the road, so it is not solely due to Fenway.
The two most important points here are the different context with a hopefully healthy Mets squad and pitcher's park. And the risk associated with Bay due to his injury history and elevated strikeouts from a year ago. We can't recommend reaching for Bay, but in early drafts he is going at a discount, sometimes a severe discount. You'd want to make sure to manage your other risks, but if healthy Bay represents second round talent. .275-95-28-100-10 in 570 AB
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| Recommended Draft Position: 37 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
31 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 107 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Youk offers plenty of balance, which is a good thing for any fantasy team. He'll produce very good totals in average, runs, homeruns, and RBI, and he'll even steal a handful of bases. .310-100-30-105-5 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Youk lacks the upside that some of the other players that you can grab for about the same price or at the same spot in your draft have. He is already very good, but I don't think he's going to get any better. He is a very safe pick with little upside or downside. .295-85-20-90-3 in 480 AB |
Analysis:
Hitting in the heart of the Red Sox order will guarantee Youk plenty of opportunities to drive-in and score runs. While you'll likely want to use him at third, he should qualify at first as well, giving him added flexibility. Nothing flashy, but indeed dependable. .305-95-28-100-5 in 530 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 39 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
31 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 145 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Morneau will slug with the best of them and end up with elite total in HR and RBI. He'll score a very respectable amount of runs (lowest in last four years was 84) and could even chip in with an excellent average. .300-100-40-120-0 in 595 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Morneau's back will be a concern coming into the year, we'll have to wait and see how much this affects his power. He won't do anything in the speed department (4 career steals). He hit .274 last season and will need to see that average go back up to his 2008 and 2006 levels, when he hit .300+. .270-80-28-90-0 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Although the depth at first base is pretty deep, Morneau represents a really nice value in 2010. Coming off of a back injury that ended his season prematurely, Morneau seems to be flying under the radar going into 2010. Before the injury, Morneau piled up 30 HR and 100 RBI in only 135 games, which had him on pace to be a top-15 player. If he can get his average back up to the .300+ level, there will be little distinction between the Canadian slugger and the higher end first basemen (Cabrera, Fielder and Teixeria). .280-90-33-110-0 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 38 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
31 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 92 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Roberts is one of the fastest second basemen out there, and he pairs that with an elite source of runs. In an improved Baltimore line-up, he could even improve on those totals. .290-105-18-75-33 in 625 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
At age 32, he's starting to get long in the tooth. Look for slight drop in power numbers and possibly stolen bases. .280-95-13-65-25 in 595 AB |
Analysis:
Brian Roberts is not quite an elite second baseman, but he's definitely close. Roberts will be close to the league lead in runs, and with 72 HR+2B, he'll be one of the top OPS performers among speedsters. He's a perfect compliment to a team that takes a lot of power early on. .285-100-15-70-30 in 610 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 41 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
30 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 108 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Jeter's incredible 2009, one of the best seasons of his career, quieted a lot of critics who claimed that he was start to deteriorate. Jeter proved that even into his mid-30s he is capable of posting huge numbers and still an elite option at SS. .330-105-15-65-25 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He isn't getting any younger, and, despite his great 2009, has reached the age when most players start to rapidly decline. 2009 was the last great season we will see from Jeter. His home run and stolen base totals are due for a decline. .305-90-10-55-15 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
35-year-olds don’t get better -- they have very good seasons. 2009 was a very good season for Jeter. Yes, he could have another very good season, but it is far more likely that his 2010 numbers more closely resemble his 2007 and 2008 seasons, which are still pretty darn good. If someone is willing to pay for his 2009 totals, be more more than happy to let them. .320-100-13-60-20 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 44 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
30 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 124 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Hill is a contact hitter who was able to turn his doubles into home runs last season. Hill's power totals from last year put him at the top of the long-fly list for second basemen. If everything breaks right for Hill in 2010, he'll have a season that resembles his 2009 line. .285-100-30-105-5 in 650 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Hill is coming off a massive season, and a step back is more likely than a step forward in 2010. Expect a drop in home runs, runs and RBI this season. .275-85-20-85-5 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Because of the shallow talent pool that is second base, Hill is pretty hot commodity. If he could replicate his monstrous 2009 -- 36 HR, 108 RBI -- he'll be worth all the attention. Problem is, I just don't see that happening. His bread and butter are those power numbers, which frankly, he won't replicate. Without those numbers, he's essentially Jose Lopez. Not bad, but not worthy of a top-four round selection. Hill had never eclipsed 17 HR before 2009, so it's hard to believe that he can keep up this torrid pace. If he can get to 25 this year, it will be an accomplishment. There are safer second basemen out there -- take one of them instead. .280-90-25-90-5 in 630 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 50 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
29 |
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$ |
8 (1) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 123 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lind can carry you in RBI and HR, while making a nice impact in average and runs as well. .310-95-43-125-0 in 595 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency. Many question Lind's ability to match his breakout 2009 total. Speed. He has none. .290-85-33-105-0 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Lind had a breakout 2009, showing an ability to hit for average and power, which makes him a very valuable commodity. Expect Lind to fall anywhere from the late-third to early-sixth round. There are a lot of mixed feelings on him. Some believe that Lind's .301-35-114 is a ceiling for his numbers, but at age 26, I find that hard to believe. Despite no line-up projection, Lind should improve on these numbers as he enters his prime. .300-90-38-115-0 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 48 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
|
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$ |
29 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 105 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Zobrist's power surge continued last season, as the 28-year-old mashed 27 homers and plated 91 RBI. As an added bonus, he swiped 17 bases and drew 91 walks en route to a .405 OBP. While some might be leery of Zobrist's once-light stick coming to life, remember that his power numbers jumped sharply way back in the second half of the '08 season and may be traced to a tweak he made in his swing. Zobrist should once again bat in the middle of the Rays order, and he should keep running as long as Joe Maddon is his manager. He should also be eligible at shortstop, second and the outfield in most leagues. .295-100-28-100-20 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Tweak, schmeak -- Zobrist had hit just 15 homers and stolen only seven bases in 145 games prior to his breakout 2009 season. While he may be worth a later round pick, his current price makes him too much of a risk. .275-80-18-80-10 in 490 AB |
Analysis:
We think Zobrist will sustain his power numbers, and throw in a good amount of steals as part of the bargain. Check your league roster rules to determine whether Zobrist is eligible at a given position. .285-90-23-90-18 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 51 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
29 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 90 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Only a three category contributor but will have a huge impact across runs, average and stolen bases. He's a nice compliment to a power heavy team. .330-100-10-50-30 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If you need power help, look elsewhere. He's aging, so possible decreased speed or an elevated chance of injury hampers his value. .300-85-3-40-20 in 590 AB |
Analysis:
Ichiro is back at the top of the order and will be a great asset to any fantasy team. What he lacks in power and run producing prowess, he makes it all up in runs, steals, and especially average. I say 'especially average' because his elevated average is extra important because of his volume of at bats. He may be getting up there in years, but still consider him a top-10 outfielder in mixed leagues. .310-90-5-45-25 in 630 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 47 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
29 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 106 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Cano finally busted out in 2009, displaying the talent everyone knew he possessed. He's entering his 27-year old season, a magic number in fantasy baseball, so another huge step forward is a strong possibility. This could be the last year you don't have to pay through the roof for Cano. .320-105-28-95-5 in 635 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While his 2009 season was a nice step forward, it's always nice to see a young player put together a couple of strong seasons before you feel completely comfortable with them. If that's the worst I can think of for negatives on Cano, you know he's someone to own in 2010. .300-90-20-80-3 in 580 AB |
Analysis:
Cano was helped by the Yankees’ new ballpark, a left-handed hitters dream, in 2009. The Yankees lineup always provides a ton of opportunities to score and drive in runs as well. Look for his 2010 season to be quite similar to his 2009 campaign. .310-100-25-90-5 in 615 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 49 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
29 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 116 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Verlander will provide an elite source of strikeouts. His durability allows him to go deep into games, which gives him more opportunities to mow opponents down. His ERA and WHIP will be slightly above average, but it's unlikely he'll finish among the league leaders. 18-0-3.50-1.15-230 in 240 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Verlander is a true fireballer, but, on a Tigers team that looks like it will take a step back in 2010, it is unlikely that he will make a huge impact in anything outside of strikeouts. Not what you want from a fantasy ace. 13-0-3.90-1.30-190 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Verlander was on top of his game in 2009, going 19-9 with a league-high 269 strikeouts. He will be drafted as a fantasy ace, but won't give you the overall numbers of one. Look for better value a few rounds later (e.g. Adam Wainwright or Cliff Lee). 15-0-3.70-1.20-220 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 45 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
29 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 81 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Morales was one of fantasy's biggest surprises in 2009. He was four category monster and gave you a huge boost in avg., HR, RBI and R all season long. He'll be worth the pick if he can post those numbers again. .300-90-35-105-5 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
His largest negative is his uncertainty. 2009 was Morales' breakout season, but can the Cuban Clubber do it again? .290-80-25-95-0 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
I have my doubts that Morales will live up to the hype in 2010. He got lucky with his balls in play in 2009 and may have trouble replicating his batting average. It may come back to bite me, but I think there are just better, more proven options available at the position. .295-85-30-100-3 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 52 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
28 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 70 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Coming off a down year, Markakis is ripe for a comeback season. At his best, Nick the Greek can be a 5-category superstar. If he can add a few home runs and get the swipes back into double digits, Markakis will be a top-25 performer. .300-100-25-105-10 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
You can't over look the nose dive his stats took in 2009. There's always the possibility that this is a trend. .285-90-15-90-5 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Nick Markakis will never disappoint in the fantasy arena -- his 2009 line of .293-94-18-101 is probably his floor. This is the reason many are referring to it as a down year for Markakis. Now entering his prime, Markakis is potentially undervalued coming into 2010. .295-95-20-95-8 in 620 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 55 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
28 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 77 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Getting out of Detroit was exactly what Granderson needed, and to make things that much better, he couldn't have picked a better place to land than with the Yankees. Granderson will develop into an elite outfield option over his next couple of years with the Bombers. His average last year was poor, but each of his previous seasons tell a different story -- he will bounce back. He's young. .280-100-30-90-23 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Granderson hit just .249 last year, which surely kept him from posting truly sensational numbers. Furthermore, he will likely bat towards the bottom of the Yanks line-up, with Nick Johnson likely filling the two hole. This will limit his opportunities to be on base in front of the Yanks big boppers. He also still can't hit lefties and could end up in a platoon. .255-85-23-70-18 in 560 AB |
Analysis:
Granderson has long been considered one of baseball's most liked players, and his talent cannot be questioned. While he had some great seasons in Detroit, the move to New Yankee Stadium, a hitter's dream, should help him take the next step. He probably bats towards the bottom of the Yanks line-up, but will still see a ton of chances to drive in and score runs, since the Yanks order is so deep. .270-95-28-80-20 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 56 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
28 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 78 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Choo jumped to everyone's attention in the second half of 2008 when he posted a 1.038 OPS after the break. (Disclaimer: this reviewer loves him some 1.000+ OPS). I can see those who pooh-pooh stats in general and in fact all those .775-.850 OPS numbers start to blend together, but if you were to take a terrific OBP of .400 and a terrific slugging percentage in .550, that would fall 50 points short of 1.000+ It just doesn't happen by accident. He regressed in 2009 (as did Indians as a group), but as they say, he now has that "in his bag."
Given the large amount of speed available this season, it's even more important than ever to get power speed combinations and to not concede outfield power for a one dimensional rabbit. Choo is a good source of steals snagging 20+.
Even a modest improvement in context this season (say a healthy Sizemore and a return to form by Peralta) could easily push last years excellent RBI totals to triple digits. .305-100-25-100-23 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There's really very little negative to say about Choo individually. But the Indians are an oddly constructed team with many questions, even beyond the health issues of Grady Sizemore. With the break-up of the management team (replacing Eric Wedge and now moving Mark Shapiro out of the General Manager position) and with many possible moves being discussed each and every day (Kerry Wood, Jhonny Peralta) there's every danger this could turn to one of those "plague ship" years wherein all performances are dragged down. .285-85-18-80-15 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Choo was one of the few bright lights for the Tribe in 2009. After posting a 1.038 OPS in the second half of 2008, Choo tossed off a respectable .883 last year in a 20/21 season to go along with 86 RBI and 87 runs.
It will take some team help for Choo to improve those numbers. We are cautiously optimistic that Grady Sizemore will be able to return to top form. If Michael Brantley (and his considerable speed and on-base skills) can remain at the top of the lineup and Jhonny Peralta returns to his 2008 form, it could be an excellent season for Choo, particularly if he starts to produce fewer ground balls. Were it not for the context questions, Choo would easily be in the discussion for the second tier of outfielders. .295-95-23-90-20 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 61 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 95 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Upton possesses the kind of power and speed combination that makes Fantasy owners drool. He showed his power back in 2007, mashing 24 homers and batting .300 while stealing 22 bases. Recovery from shoulder surgery derailed his power last year, but the 25-year-old still managed to steal 42 bases -- bringing his stolen sacks total to 86 over the past two seasons. He is likely playing for a big free agent deal this season, so the motivation is certainly there to excel. .290-100-20-80-50 in 590 AB. |
Negatives/Downside:
Upton's slugging percentage actually dropped during the second half of last season, suggesting that maybe the shoulder problem wasn't the only reason for his power outage. Upton's work ethic and attitude have rightly been questioned in the past, and there is reason to believe that he'll never again approach the kind of numbers he posted in '07. .255-75-10-60-35 in 520 AB. |
Analysis:
It's tough to know where to stand with Upton, but one thing is certain: he'll steal a bunch of bases for your fantasy cause. That alone makes him worth a mid-round draft pick, but expecting another .300 season with 20 bombs is a reach. .275-90-15-70-45 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 62 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 107 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
He may only really contribute in three categories, but his run and steals production are among the elite. .295-110-8-55-40 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Eventually Father Time will catch up to Figgins, and he'll lose a step. There's a possibility that could happen this year, but I wouldn't count on it. He does have a poor injury history aside from 2009. .280-90-3-45-30 in 510 AB |
Analysis:
Chone Figgins is essentially Ichiro-lite. He'll hit for an excellent average and steal many bases. His run total will take a hit, as he no longer has the big bats of the Angels' line-up to knock him in. If you miss out on some of the power that resides at the hot corner, take Figgins and address power at another position. .285-100-5-50-35 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 64 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 93 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
He's young, already has two great seasons, pitches for one of the best teams in baseball, and collects strikeouts like Tiger collects mistresses. What's not to like? Lester is becoming one baseball's elite starting pitchers. 18-0-3.25-1.18-230 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Pitching in the AL East is never a walk on the beach, even if you don't have to pitch against the Red Sox. This fact will prevent him from being able to post an ERA in the low 3.00s. Somewhere between 3.25 and 3.50 is more appropriate. 15-0-3.50-1.25-200 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Lester has passed teammate Josh Beckett as the Red Sox's ace, and has established himself as a fantasy ace as well. He's just 26, and has a lot of great years ahead of him. Pitching in Boston will provide the run support needed to win plenty of games. 18-0-3.30-1.20-220 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 60 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 123 1 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cruz had a breakout power season in 2009, crushing pitcher after pitcher en route to 33 long flies. The power and speed were new to Cruz, but another season like 2009 and he'll be worth every penny. .265-85-33-85-23 in 530 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Can he do it again? Break out seasons generally come before age 28, which causes more than a few red flags. There's a decent chance that Cruz returns to where he came from, leaving owners frustrated and searching for answers. .245-70-25-70-15 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
Cruz slugged 33 home runs in his first full season of action and looks to improve on that total this year. In early mock drafts, Cruz is going around the sixth round, which seems a bit high. He’s a legitimate 20/20 threat, but his low average leaves him below what he should be producing in runs and RBI. If he can become more disciplined at the plate, he’ll increase those totals, but don’t count on it. .255-80-30-80-20 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 71 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
26 |
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$ |
13 (2) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 66 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The former hot-prospect-turned-bust has become one of the game's most prolific home run hitters, mashing 39 taters in just 471 at-bats last season. He will once again bat in the middle of what looks like a solid Rays lineup, and he'll have the extra motivation of impending free agency at the end of the '10 campaign. Pena has an exceptional batting eye, and he is a legitimate 40-homer threat who will be available at a bargain price on draft day. .250-95-43-110-5 in 500 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Pena's power is undeniable -- it's what happens on those occasions when the ball doesn't leave the yard that worries us. Carlos has whiffed 329 times over the past two seasons, and his career batting average is a lowly .247. An assortment of injuries has limited him every season, and his career-best total is just 490 at-bats. .230-80-33-90-0 in 420 AB |
Analysis:
If you decide to draft Pena, make sure that you have plenty of high-average hitters in your fantasy stable. Big power numbers are a virtual certainty, but your team BA is bound to take a hit. .240-90-40-105-3 in 480 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 66 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
26 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 76 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Butler hit an astonishing 51 doubles last season. If he can turn 20% of those into home runs, which he should be able to, Butler will be well worth what ever you shell out to get his services. .305-85-30-100-0 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's only 23 and could still lack season-to-season consistency. .285-75-20-90-0 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Butler is currently the 14th first baseman coming off the board, around the 90th pick overall, and any improvement from 2009 will have the youngster outperform that draft slot. As it stands, Butler is a solid three category contributor, and if anyone behind him could hit, he'd be more than an average run donor. Butler should be an excellent value in 2010. .295-80-25-95-0 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 70 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
26 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 123 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Lee will end the year among the league leaders in WHIP and ERA, which gives you opportunity to chase Wins and K elsewhere. The ratios are much harder to find on the waiver wire, and Lee is a specialist. 18-0-3.20-1.18-180 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
He's getting older, and pitching at Safeco will entice Lee to pitch to contact, which could lead to a decline in strikeouts. 15-0-3.50-1.30-150 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Pitching at Safeco, with baseball's best defense behind him, will increase Lee's already sterling numbers. The only chink in his armor is that his K/9 rate (7.04), although nothing to sneeze at, is nowhere near his dominance in WHIP and ERA. Lee will produce number one value, at a second tier price. 18-0-3.30-1.20-170 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 67 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
26 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 144 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
A lot of positives to go around. Abreu will help in runs, average, RBI, and stolen bases. Not many players can do that. If he can replicate his 2009 HR total (15), he'll end the year as a top-50 performer, who comes at a mere top-100 cost. .290-95-18-95-25 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Age, but nothing else, really. .280-80-10-70-15 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Abreu may not have the power yesteryear (curse you, 2005 Home Run Derby!), but he'll be an above average performer in the other four categories. With another year under his belt, expect the stats to decline a little bit, but no so much that he won't be a value. Abreu is in 'unsexy' pick territory and should out perform his ADP/$ value. .285-90-15-90-20 in 555 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 74 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
25 |
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$ |
20 (1) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 105 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Over the past 4 season, Papelbon has saved 151 games, posted an ERA under 2.00, and a WHIP under 1.00. With the Red Sox set to be one of the game's best teams once again, there is no reason why Paps can't approach 40 saves in 2010. 3-40-1.90-1.00-75 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Papelbon posted the highest WHIP of his career last season (1.15) and saw a slight drop in his saves total as well. That's all I've got for negatives. 3-35-2.20-1.10-70 in 65 IP |
Analysis:
Some will debate which of Papelbon or Mariano Rivera is the better option, but the truth is, you can't go wrong with either guy. It's like having to choose between dating a hot blonde or hot brunette. The only real difference is that the younger Papelbon doesn't carry to risk of physical breakdown that the 40-year old Rivera does, but Rivera carries to potential to save more games. 3-38-2.10-1.05-75 in 70 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 77 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
25 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 117 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Let's see... he pitches for the defending world champions, is coming off of a 44 save season, and is perhaps the greatest closer of all time. Plus, I'm pretty sure he is a robot. 5-43-1.90-0.90-75 in 65 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
He turned 40 this off-season, and eventually every player's skills start to deteriorate, even those you are convinced are actually robots. Could this be the season that Mo proves to be human? 3-33-2.50-1.05-55 in 50 IP |
Analysis:
When it comes down to it, Rivera is still amongst the best, if not the best closer in the game. Yes, he is getting up there in age, but he has shown no indication of breaking down whatsoever. Rivera is just as reliable as ever. 3-40-2.10-0.95-70 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 76 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
25 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 110 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Beckett bucked the trend of having a good season every other year in 2009 when he posted numbers similar to his 2008 totals. He has developed into a reliable contributor across the board and has the upside to outproduce his draft position/auction price. 18-0-3.50-1.15-210 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Beckett is prone to having down seasons. While he will help you in all categories, he will not post an elite level ERA. Beckett has incredible stuff but can be an enigma at times. 15-0-3.90-1.25-185 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Beckett is no longer the Red Sox' ace and qualifies as a borderline fantasy ace as well. He is a reliable source of wins and strikeouts, and low walk totals keep his WHIP low. His ERA will be good but not spectacular. I'd much rather target someone like Beckett coming off of a solid season than some of the other starters with similarly perceived value, like Javy Vazquez. 18-0-3.70-1.20-200 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 81 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
24 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 117 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
In 2009 with the Braves, 15-0-2.88-1.03-238. Enough said. 18-0-4.05-1.25-200 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
In 2004 with the Yanks, 14-0-4.91-1.29-150. Pitching in the AL and in the pressure of the Bronx makes all the difference. Enough said. 13-0-4.55-1.35-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Place your hands behind your head, and step away from the Javy Vazquez. Vazquez has absolutely no chance of reproducing his 2009 success back with the Yankees in the AL in 2010. I don't expect him to be as bad as he was in 2004 with the Yankees, but he be a whole lot better either. Let someone else make the poor investment. 15-0-4.35-1.30-195 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 80 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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$ |
24 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 77 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
If Jones can build on his promising 2009, he'll be a true 5-category contributor. Jones is a perfect breakout candidate coming into the year and you can reap the rewards at a pretty good price. .280-90-28-80-18 in 530 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's coming off of injury, but how much will that influence his 2010 season? There's the chance that he doesn't come back at full strength and proceeds to struggle. .260-75-18-65-8 in 440 AB |
Analysis:
Adam Jones was coming into his own last season before a gimpy ankle cut his year short. Pacman (yes, why get rid of ridiculous nickname, when it can just be transferred) is a true five-category contributor and is a legit 25/20 threat. He could take a jump into the elite this year. .275-85-25-75-13 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 86 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
23 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 89 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Alex Rios has been a tout darling for many seasons now, and although the end results have been mixed, he still retains essentially the same skill set that made you like him in the first place. While not a slugger per se, Rios has some power, and his doubles rate show a very mild carpet influence from his time in Toronto (always something to check on double and triple rates). Despite his size, he is genuinely fast and doesn't get thrown out often. Some of what plagued him last season, particularly the end, were a series of small injuries and probably the same malaise that affected many Jays players at the end of the J.P Ricciardi era... Rios now finds himself on a team with a manager that will undoubtedly allow him to run and with an opportunity to make a fresh start. .290-95-23-85-28 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Rios has 3508 major league at bats, and the glorious prospects held out in front of him by many a tout have never fully materialized. A player of his size (6'5) rarely continues running throughout his career, and last year's 24 steals (after 32 in 2008) probably wasn't entirely the nagging injuries that followed him throughout the campaign. While it's true that Ozzie Guillen is likely to allow his team to run early, often, and at the most inopportune times, it's also possible that he will continue to turn the base-running lights green and then red and then green and... just as he did last season. With Juan Pierre presumably in the steals slot, it's reasonable to expect that Rios will be in a non-running slot, further curtailing his fantasy value. .260-75-15-70-15 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Alex Rios has always been an intriguing set of fantasy possibilities that has only infrequently turned into fantasy realities. Players of his size often start to replace their running game with a power game and that surely is the best case scenario for Rios. Unfortunately while we have some evidence of declining base-running, we have less evidence of any increase in power or even latent power to come. The most likely scenario is for Rios to continue doing what he has done but run a little less, which means he's likely to be a reasonably replaceable cog in your fantasy team. .280-85-18-80-20 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 95 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 87 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
In his first season, Beckham could have hardly made a better impression. In 103 G with the White Sox, he showed he could hit for power, some average, and even steal a handful of bases. He is primed to build on his partial season with a great full year in 2010. Plus, in moving to 2B, he will gain two-position eligibility, increasing his value. .280-90-28-95-13 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Young players can be unpredictable. Between the building hype and the position switch, there's a risk that it's all a little too much too soon. .260-75-20-75-8 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
It certainly looks like Beckham is ready to live up to the lofty expectations placed on him. He demonstrated that he could hit big league pitching, he plays in a good hitters' park, and he has a certain path to regular playing time. He should be a target in one-year and keeper leagues alike. .270-85-25-85-10 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 97 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 74 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Hunter won't leave you disappointed in any category. If you are picking a balanced team, Hunter will be an excellent addition. Many believe that Hunter's numbers will start decreasing with his age, but he should have another good season left in him. He'll be available at a discount because of it. .285-85-23-90-20 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Hunter is always an injury risk, so beware. Also, maybe time does start to catch up to him in 2010. Either way, you won't need to spend too much for him, so it's worth the risk. .265-70-15-75-13 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
Hunter is one of the few five-category contributors that is available after the fifth round. He may not be a "sexy" pick, but he should produce as a low end No. 2 (12-team mixed) fantasy outfielder. .275-78-20-80-18 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 96 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 105 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Soria will get you the saves you desire and even rack up an impressive strikeout total. 3-38-1.90-0.95-80 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Soria hit the DL last year and could be a repeat offender. Also, playing for the Royals will limit his save chances. 3-28-2.40-1.15-65 in 55 IP |
Analysis:
Soria should end up as a top-10 closer by year's end, but be careful spending too much for him. Playing for the Royals will offer less save opportunities than your average closer. 3-33-2.10-1.05-75 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 100 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 131 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lackey has put together back-to-back solid seasons, and has really settled into the category of good-but-not-great starter. He'll get plenty of run support in Boston, which will help him win games, and he's a virtual lock to post a sub-4.00 ERA. 15-0-3.65-1.23-160 in 200 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Lackey's 2008 and 2009 numbers are nearly identical, but they signal a drop from his numbers the previous three seasons. He has taken a step back the past couple years, and although he is still a solid option, another regression is a possibility. Lackey never developed into the ace many thought he'd be. 13-0-3.85-1.28-140 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
John Lackey is one of those rare guys who makes an off-season move from one contender to another. Pitching in the AL East may be a little more brutal than the AL West, but not as much as you may think, thanks to the Orioles and Jays. I think Lackey improves his numbers some in 2010 and wins a few more games. 15-0-3.75-1.25-150 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 104 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 98 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bartlett came out of nowhere to become a major offensive force for the Rays in 2009. His .320 average, 14 homers, 90 runs, 160 hits, 30 steals, .490 SLG and .879 OPS were all career highs for the six-year vet -- and he did it in just 137 games. He projects to be the Rays' lead-off hitter in 2010, batting atop what should be a rather potent lineup. .300-95-15-70-35 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Players who come out of nowhere at age 29 often find their way back to nowhere in short order. Bartlett may have been way over his skis last season, and the fact that he batted just .294 in the second half -- with a steep drop in OPS -- should signal that he's due for a return to earth in 2010. .275-75-8-55-23 in 510 AB |
Analysis:
It's hard to imagine Bartlett batting .320 again, and his power surge may have been a mirage -- but his speed is the real deal. Don't pay for the prospect of another 15-homer campaign, but expecting 10 bombs and 25-30 steals is not out of line. .290-85-10-60-28 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 105 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 125 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Wieters ended the strong and should end up as one of the top catchers in home runs, runs, RBI, and average. He's a gamble that could take the next step into the elite at the position. .300-70-20-80-0 in 530 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
We saw two sides of Wieters last season. There's the possibility that we get more of the bad Wieters in his sophomore season. .275-60-15-70-0 in 480 AB |
Analysis:
Matt Wieters may have appeared to be a bust in 2009, but he really played well from August on. Wieters will hit in the middle of this line-up and will get every chance to succeed. Consider him a post-hype sleeper. .290-65-18-75-0 in 510 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 106 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 95 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Although Ramirez' batting average took a hit going from .290 in 2008 to .277 in 2009, he more than doubled his walks. In 2008 Alexei walked an unacceptable 18 times over 509 plate appearances, and improved that to 49 times over 606 plate appearances. That's a much more fundamental change to his game than a loss of 13 points of batting average.
Although he is not terribly efficient base stealer (66%) Alexei does run and is unlikely to be stopped by manager Ozzie Guillen. With even a slight rebound in power that makes Alexei at least a 15/15 player in the middle infield and perhaps 20/20. .290-85-20-80-20 in 575 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Alexei's ISO dropped in 2009 to .115. For those not used to working with ISO (the difference between BA and SLG -- basically a good way to look at whether a player's batting is mainly singles), .115 is about as bad as it gets for a full-time player. And 2008's .185 wasn't that good either. And there's not much reason to think it will change. In 2008 he hit a total of 22 doubles, and weak as that was, followed it with only 14(!) in 542 AB in 2009. .270-65-13-70-13 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
When Alexei Ramirez joined the White Sox in 2008 and banged 21 home runs to go along with 13 stolen bases, there were high expectations that he would be a tidy 20/15 option in the middle of the infield or perhaps a little better over time. Last season, despite drawing enough walks to pull his OBP up, the Cuban Missile dropped most of his other fantasy stat categories.
What's more, all the danger signals of his 2008 campaign (no doubles and a weak ISO and inefficient base stealing) were confirmed when 120 of his 150 hits went for singles. Ramirez now loses his second base eligibility (a major plus last season), and while one would usually expect some bounce-back after his sophomore slump, there's little evidence outside of his walk rates that would give one a lot of hope.
Compounding this is the danger presented by a manager who, like the Lou Brown character in the movie "Major league" (ably played by James Gammon) might order Alexei to do push-ups every time he puts the ball in the air, exacerbating an unacceptable .115 ISO and really not helping him get on base that much more. .275-80-15-75-15 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 106 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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