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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 209  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Last season we said of Braun that he would get 20 steals -- "yeah, seriously" -- and 20 steals he got. Braun stole 8 in the final month of the season and looks to have built on the speed portion of his game. The days where Braun's strikeout rate was worrisome (112 in 451ABs in 2007) are long gone, and his walk rate has improved each season. Braun put the ball on the ground more than usual last season (GB/FB 1.36 vs. 0.88 in 2008) so we can expect Braun to hit a few more home runs this season as he returns to his normal flyball ratios. .325-115-38-120-20 in 650AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There aren't many negatives here. Milwaukee has replaced Felipe Lopez at the top of the order, perhaps with Carlos Gomez or Alcides Escobar, which means fewer baserunners. His BABIP was .351, so one might expect some regression there, but even in this case, batters often maintain .330+ in-play results from season-to-season. He only walked intentionally once in 2009, so perhaps he will get more intentional passes and lose RBI chances? .290-95-33-100-15 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Ryan Braun enters 2010 as our top outfielder in fantasy. If you felt the need to sacrifice a handful of home runs and a bit of batting average for extra steals, you could be excused for selecting Matt Kemp first, but Braun's 8-steal final month quashed any fear that he would not contribute in all categories. He's durable and consistent -- even in his "bad" July, he collected five home runs, 13 RBI and 18 runs. Select with confidence. .320-110-35-115-18 in 635 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 5 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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43 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Kemp is only 25 years old and has yet to enter into the prime of his career. His HR% has gone up each year as has his walk rates and HR/FB%. His strikeout rate is high, but improved slightly last season to 22.9% and he's established himself as a 75% plus base-stealer. If Kemp moves into the heart of the lineup, his countable numbers can only go up (see negatives here). .315-105-33-95-35 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
For whatever reason, Kemp has performed better in the top and bottom third of the batting order (.313 and .333 respectively) as opposed to four through six (.256), and the exact lineup has yet to be set for the Dodgers. Because of the uncertainties surrounding Manny Ramirez, the inconsistency of Russell Martin and the age of Casey Blake, there way be a limit as to what support he will be given. .295-90-25-85-25 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Context questions and Ryan Braun's fine finish in 2009 (.357 with eight steals from Sept. on) are the only thing that keep Matt Kemp out of the number one outfielder slot for 2010. At age 25 and coming off a 26/34 season, even more can be expected from the Dodger center-fielder. There's really no wrong choice between the two best fantasy outfielders in the game -- do you prefer a projected 35 home runs and 18 stolen bases? Or projected 30 and 30? Although Miller Park enjoys a reputation as a hitter's park, it's BPF rates as comparable to Chavez Ravine (which has always been a reasonable park for home runs). Both players are very durable, with neither missing significant amounts of time in their careers.
Kemp's 2009 numbers of 101 RBI and 97 runs came mainly out of the bottom third of the order, holding forth the promise that if he is moved up in the order better countables could follow. Speed, power and reliability for a probable contender is a formula for fantasy success. .305-100-30-100-30 in 600 AB
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| Recommended Draft Position: 6 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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42 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 99 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Crawford's game is speed, speed and more speed, and the 28-year-old set a new career standard by swiping 60 bags last season. This wasn't exactly rarefied air for CC, though, as he has posted 50 or more steals five times in his six full big league seasons. .305-105-15-80-70 in 610 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
Crawford's on-base skills are rather pedestrian, and he strikes out a lot for a speed merchant. His stolen base success rate dropped off rather dramatically as the season went on last year, raising concerns that he may have been tiring. If his hamstrings act up... .290-90-10-65-50 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
After suffering through an injury-riddled 2008 season, Crawford bounced back nicely last year, whacking 15 homers and batting .305. He's likely to be playing for a big free agent deal this year, and some monster numbers could be in store. .300-100-15-75-65 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 14 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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38 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 153 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Upton is an elite outfielder for good reason. He'll fill up all five categories and create a huge disparity between him and almost every other outfielder. .300-110-35-115-30 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The possibility for the dreaded sophomore slump. .280-90-25-95-15 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
Justin Upton is truly an elite talent. He's one of baseball's few players that fills up all five categories on a consistent basis. The former number-one pick turned in an excellent season that had him amass 26 HR, 86 RBI, and 84 R, all while hitting .300 and swiping an impressive 20 bags. We can only assume that the 22 year-old will only improve on those stats this season. He's a top-five outfielder and will come off draft boards in the first two rounds. If you want him on your roster, you'll have to pay the price, but he should be worth it. .290-100-30-105-25 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 18 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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36 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 160 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
After being dealt to the Cardinals last year, Holliday hit .353-42-13-55 in just 63 games. Hitting behind Pujols for a full season bodes well for his 2010 fortunes. He will certainly see more than his share of RBI opportunities. .320-110-25-120-15 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While Holliday was fantastic last year with the Cards, a return to his 2007 totals in Colorado are highly unlikely. As good as Holliday is, his total of 36 homeruns in 2007 was aided by the thin Colorado air. Another concern is the drop in stolen bases he saw in 2009. Last year, Holliday stole just 14 bases, after totaling 28 in 2008. What's worse is that he stole just two of those 12 bases after his move to St. Louis. .300-100-20-100-5 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Holliday could be in line for a big season -- the type you'd call a career year, if it wasn't for his monster 2007 in Colorado. He is someone you can safely target on draft/auction day, but don't expect a return to more than 10-15 stolen bases. .315-105-25-115-10 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 19 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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36 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 102 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ellsbury led the majors with 70 steals in 2009 and is a good bet to do so again in 2010. Batting leadoff for the Red Sox all but gaurantees a ton of runs. A batting average right around the .300 mark seems like a strong bet, and Ellsbury's 60 RBI in 2009 is more than you'll get from most lead-off hitters. Now 26, there is a chance that Ellsbury will develop his power some in the coming years and consistently post double digit home run totals. .300-100-10-60-70 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Obviously 70 stolen bases is extremely valuable from a fantasy perspective, but Ellsbury will help you less in home runs and RBI than any other hitter who commands as much attention as he will. Furthermore, the possibility exists that Ellsbury's 70 steals in 2009 are the most we'll ever see from him. .285-85-3-50-50 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Ellsbury will single-handedly keep you at the top of the heap in stolen bases. However, don't expect 70 steals again. If you do choose to acquire Ellsbury, be sure you supplement him with a couple of lower end power options later in your draft or auction. .295-90-5-55-65 in 610 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 20 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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35 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 140 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Sizemore is entering his age 27 season, and all indications are that his elbow and other issues have been resolved. He had improved his strikeout rate prior to 2009, and for all the difficulties of 2009, he maintained that improved rate (down to 5:1 from a more dangerous 4:1). Likewise his groundball, flyball and contact rates were largely unchanged. Sizemore didn't take a step back -- he was "just" hurt (tell that to the commish in your money league). That means a great opportunity for you if he is healthy. We have Size going for $33 or 31st, but he's essentially the same player that was the first outfielder taken in many, if not most leagues last year. While due to batting average concerns we couldn't see him as a better prospect than Braun or Kemp for this season, there's no question that if he returned to his 30+/30+ levels, he would earn first-round money. And other than health, there appears to be nothing to keep him from doing so. .290-100-30-100-35 in 650 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The Russell Branyan signing doesn't in any way fix the potential context problems that all Cleveland hitters will face (including everyone's darling pick Choo). Michael Brantley brings considerable on-base skills to the team, but he has struggled the first time through in both double- and triple-A, and there's every possibility that he will do the same in the show, in which case Sizemore might have less attractive options hitting in front of him (or he even gets moved to the front of the order). It's also not uncommon for players with this type of ailment to lose power. .265-70-20-70-20 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
This is Sizemore's age-27 season, and none of his secondary numbers reflect any diminution of his considerable skills despite a lost season due to injuries. Assuming he is healthy (and all indications are that he will be) he represents a high-end power/speed combination. Batting average is always a concern with Sizemore, but other than last year his career low is .268. That's not a plus, but it's not a huge minus.
The question here is context. The Indians look like a team with a whole lot of nothing on base unless Michael Brantley can succeed right away at the big league level. Other than Shin-Soo Choo, there are no "plus" on-base players and the signing of Russell Branyan is not going to help this. The days of Travis Hafner and V-Mart in their prime and on the Tribe are over. Whatever Sizemore does, it will be without a lot of help. Even with an ideal lineup for Sizemore, with Brantley and Cabrera in front and Choo behind, it's hard to put together enough runs to move his runs and RBI from good up to excellent. .275-95-28-95-35 in 625 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 31 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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33 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 110 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Except for an injury plagued 2007, Jason Bay has delivered at least 101-31-101 every season since 2005 (and hit 26 dingers in 120 games the year before in his first season as a full-timer). He's also delivered double digit steals each year (2007 excepted). While his batting average has been all over the map, Bay has delivered exactly what was advertised season-in and season-out -- power, runs and some bonus steals.
Bay moves from Fenway (but he hit more home runs on the road last season) into a Mets lineup that should at least be healthier than what it was last season (how could it not be?). Despite all the talk that the Metropolitans' new home is depressing offense, in fact, the Mets ranked higher in runs scored at home than on the road. With part of the center field wall being lowered from 16' to 8', perhaps even the home run rates will rebound a bit.
This will be Bay's age-31 season (turning 32 in Sept), and there is no reason to think he will get many fewer opportunities to do damage for his owners. .285-105-30-110-10 in 575 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Despite averaging over 150 games played each year over the last five campaigns, Bay has been nagged by knee and shoulder woes his entire career. His strikeout rates have always been ominous, and they leaped to 30.5% in 2009, his worst marker in five seasons. The season after his previous high water mark on total strikeouts was the 2007 season, where he posted a line of .247-78-21-84-4 in 538 AB. That's his approximate downside in 2010: .250-80-20-85-5 in 530 AB
We don't anticipate that moving back to the Senior circuit after a bit more than a season will affect Bay adversely, but the Met's lineup is weaker than the Red Sox and even if the hitting woes at Citi are exaggerated,it is still not Fenway. As with all hitters of this type, the increase in srikeouts may presage a decline .260-90-24-90-5. 525ABs |
Analysis:
Jason Bay has earned fantasy owners quite a lot over the past five seasons as one of the most consistent 30-100 type outfielders over the period. That he runs a little and runs efficiently has been a nice little bonus for Bay owners. An old rule of thumb says that the later that a player comes up the earlier he burns out and while that may be true of the general population, it's mainly because in general the players who get called up early are the better players. When a good player, like Bay, arrive late (and to be fair, he was 24) there's no real reason to think he'll fade early. Bay has largely been a top notch offensive performer and, despite all the gloom and doom talk, is coming off career highs in both home runs and RBI. Most of the home runs came from on the road, so it is not solely due to Fenway.
The two most important points here are the different context with a hopefully healthy Mets squad and pitcher's park. And the risk associated with Bay due to his injury history and elevated strikeouts from a year ago. We can't recommend reaching for Bay, but in early drafts he is going at a discount, sometimes a severe discount. You'd want to make sure to manage your other risks, but if healthy Bay represents second round talent. .275-95-28-100-10 in 570 AB
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| Recommended Draft Position: 37 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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31 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 168 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ethier has increased his home run totals each year that he has played, posting 31 in 2009. Part of that is increased at-bats, but Ethier also put the ball in the air with greater regularity -- a significant 0.92 GB/FB, compared with 1.3 in the previous two seasons. Almost 10% more of his AB resulted in fly balls, and that means more home runs. Whether he can carry that over (or if it is desirable, see: negatives) is another question, but the extra fly balls came mainly at the expense of line drives, so presumably a regression would mean a return to a higher batting average. Ethier drove in 106 runs despite batting only .250 with RISP. It's hard to predict RISP, but were he to increase his efficiency there, a high RBI total would follow. Ethier turns 28 in April, so he is in the prime of his productive career. He's maddeningly inconsistent, but is so good (21 home runs and 57 RBI in 78 games from June to August last season) when hot that one can afford to wait out the lean stretches. .270-95-35-110-5 in 600 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
Much of Ethier's value is predicated on two things -- his ability to stay in the middle of the batting order and his ability to put the ball in the air. The Dodgers are notorious in in using different lineups daily, and with Ethier's propensity to disappear, that could mean many at bats in non-productive slots. If he returns to his previous fly ball rates, he becomes a 20 home run, .290 hitter, rather than a .270-something, 30 home run hitter -- a trade-off few fantasy owners would take. .280-75-20-80-5 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Many people remarked on the contrast between Andre Ethier's performance with Manny Ramirez than without him in 2008 and predicted similar results for 2009. Owners were generally rewarded for doing so, however Ethier had an even larger inconsistency in previous seasons without Manny being involved. Ethier is capable of performing with the best sluggers out there for long stretches of time, followed by weeks and weeks of lack of production. On balance, the 28 year-old (in April) will produce season-end numbers that make him just a rung below the top groups of outfielders. Just remember to carry plenty of antacid.
Ethier's numbers against left-handers are very poor and have declined each year to a sub-Mendoza performance last season with a correspondingly bad .629 OPS. Although in general it's not a good practice to consider "protection" in real baseball or fantasy, for players with Ethier's increasingly extreme split, he's a lot more likely to find pitches in RBI situations with a big right-handed hitter hitting behind him (and here were are talking about Manny Ramirez). Placement in the order will be very important for Ethier
Watch also Ethier's fly ball rate (use the fly balls separated from line drives), as this should give you a good idea whether Ethier will be the .300/20 home run version or the .275/30 home run version. .275-95-30-105-5 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 36 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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31 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 179 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Every time Werth has been healthy, nearly 20% of his flyballs have turned into home runs, around double the league averages. Despite a career high 156 strikeouts, he actually improved his strikeout rate and walked 91 times vs. a previous career high of 57. Werth is a reliable source of additional steals. Good park, good lineup -- what's not to like? .275-100-35-100-20 in 575 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
This is the longest that Werth has played without a major injury. Although he improved his strikeout rate, 156 strikeouts is a pretty heavy number. It's not unusual for a player with this many strikeouts and of his age to decline and sometimes rapidly. .250-75-25-75-10 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Werth is one of those players who, due to his previous injury history, generates wildly divergent projections if you stick with your formulas. Werth had 571 AB last season, yet most published projections have him getting 450-500 ABs. Since the Phillies would love for Werth to get another 571 ABs, in essence, what my learned colleagues are saying is that he plays himself out of AB, except they are not, since most of them are projecting that Werth will produce at an equal or even higher rate of Home Runs and RBI. Or that he will get injured, which given how many years he battled with hand and wrist issues, is certainly possible. Of course, the projection isn't based on someone sitting down and guessing that he will miss 20 games for this- that- or the other-thing. Instead it's just an average of his previous playing time with various adjustments thrown on.
The reason I mention this is that the Phillies might give him more than the three games of rest he got last season, but it's highly unlikely they will give him 23 games of rest. So it's a better than fair bet that he'll get last years AB or he'll spend time on the DL, in which case you'll be able to slot in at least replacement level production if your league set up allows.
I've been a big fan of Jayson Werth since that first half season for the Dodgers in 2004 when he hit 16 home runs in 89 games. That number is real. In his five seasons where he has significant playing time, his HR/FB was under 18.3 (about double an average player) once, and that was the 2007 year when he was trying to play through both knee and wrist problems. .265-90-30-90-15 550ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 42 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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30 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 123 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lind can carry you in RBI and HR, while making a nice impact in average and runs as well. .310-95-43-125-0 in 595 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency. Many question Lind's ability to match his breakout 2009 total. Speed. He has none. .290-85-33-105-0 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Lind had a breakout 2009, showing an ability to hit for average and power, which makes him a very valuable commodity. Expect Lind to fall anywhere from the late-third to early-sixth round. There are a lot of mixed feelings on him. Some believe that Lind's .301-35-114 is a ceiling for his numbers, but at age 26, I find that hard to believe. Despite no line-up projection, Lind should improve on these numbers as he enters his prime. .300-90-38-115-0 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 48 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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29 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 105 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Zobrist's power surge continued last season, as the 28-year-old mashed 27 homers and plated 91 RBI. As an added bonus, he swiped 17 bases and drew 91 walks en route to a .405 OBP. While some might be leery of Zobrist's once-light stick coming to life, remember that his power numbers jumped sharply way back in the second half of the '08 season and may be traced to a tweak he made in his swing. Zobrist should once again bat in the middle of the Rays order, and he should keep running as long as Joe Maddon is his manager. He should also be eligible at shortstop, second and the outfield in most leagues. .295-100-28-100-20 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Tweak, schmeak -- Zobrist had hit just 15 homers and stolen only seven bases in 145 games prior to his breakout 2009 season. While he may be worth a later round pick, his current price makes him too much of a risk. .275-80-18-80-10 in 490 AB |
Analysis:
We think Zobrist will sustain his power numbers, and throw in a good amount of steals as part of the bargain. Check your league roster rules to determine whether Zobrist is eligible at a given position. .285-90-23-90-18 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 51 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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29 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 90 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Only a three category contributor but will have a huge impact across runs, average and stolen bases. He's a nice compliment to a power heavy team. .330-100-10-50-30 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If you need power help, look elsewhere. He's aging, so possible decreased speed or an elevated chance of injury hampers his value. .300-85-3-40-20 in 590 AB |
Analysis:
Ichiro is back at the top of the order and will be a great asset to any fantasy team. What he lacks in power and run producing prowess, he makes it all up in runs, steals, and especially average. I say 'especially average' because his elevated average is extra important because of his volume of at bats. He may be getting up there in years, but still consider him a top-10 outfielder in mixed leagues. .310-90-5-45-25 in 630 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 47 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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29 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 149 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Dunn was once a mortal lock for 40 HR, but last year's 38 will do. Too bad he didn't play on a better team, or he'd have definitely driven in more than 105 runs. Dunn needs to keep his average up if he wants to crack the top-50 again. .265-85-40-110-3 in 540 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Dunn strikes out a ton and is about as slow as it gets. He's in John Olerud territory when it comes to speed. If Dunn can't keep his average up, he'll become a negative player in the category, and that will severely limit his value. .240-70-30-90-0 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Adam Dunn finished as one of baseball's better performers last year because he was able to hit around .270. If he can keep that average from falling back into the .240 range he'll be a great value in 2010. .250-80-35-100-0 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 57 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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28 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 70 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Coming off a down year, Markakis is ripe for a comeback season. At his best, Nick the Greek can be a 5-category superstar. If he can add a few home runs and get the swipes back into double digits, Markakis will be a top-25 performer. .300-100-25-105-10 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
You can't over look the nose dive his stats took in 2009. There's always the possibility that this is a trend. .285-90-15-90-5 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Nick Markakis will never disappoint in the fantasy arena -- his 2009 line of .293-94-18-101 is probably his floor. This is the reason many are referring to it as a down year for Markakis. Now entering his prime, Markakis is potentially undervalued coming into 2010. .295-95-20-95-8 in 620 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 55 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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28 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 77 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Getting out of Detroit was exactly what Granderson needed, and to make things that much better, he couldn't have picked a better place to land than with the Yankees. Granderson will develop into an elite outfield option over his next couple of years with the Bombers. His average last year was poor, but each of his previous seasons tell a different story -- he will bounce back. He's young. .280-100-30-90-23 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Granderson hit just .249 last year, which surely kept him from posting truly sensational numbers. Furthermore, he will likely bat towards the bottom of the Yanks line-up, with Nick Johnson likely filling the two hole. This will limit his opportunities to be on base in front of the Yanks big boppers. He also still can't hit lefties and could end up in a platoon. .255-85-23-70-18 in 560 AB |
Analysis:
Granderson has long been considered one of baseball's most liked players, and his talent cannot be questioned. While he had some great seasons in Detroit, the move to New Yankee Stadium, a hitter's dream, should help him take the next step. He probably bats towards the bottom of the Yanks line-up, but will still see a ton of chances to drive in and score runs, since the Yanks order is so deep. .270-95-28-80-20 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 56 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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28 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 78 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Choo jumped to everyone's attention in the second half of 2008 when he posted a 1.038 OPS after the break. (Disclaimer: this reviewer loves him some 1.000+ OPS). I can see those who pooh-pooh stats in general and in fact all those .775-.850 OPS numbers start to blend together, but if you were to take a terrific OBP of .400 and a terrific slugging percentage in .550, that would fall 50 points short of 1.000+ It just doesn't happen by accident. He regressed in 2009 (as did Indians as a group), but as they say, he now has that "in his bag."
Given the large amount of speed available this season, it's even more important than ever to get power speed combinations and to not concede outfield power for a one dimensional rabbit. Choo is a good source of steals snagging 20+.
Even a modest improvement in context this season (say a healthy Sizemore and a return to form by Peralta) could easily push last years excellent RBI totals to triple digits. .305-100-25-100-23 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There's really very little negative to say about Choo individually. But the Indians are an oddly constructed team with many questions, even beyond the health issues of Grady Sizemore. With the break-up of the management team (replacing Eric Wedge and now moving Mark Shapiro out of the General Manager position) and with many possible moves being discussed each and every day (Kerry Wood, Jhonny Peralta) there's every danger this could turn to one of those "plague ship" years wherein all performances are dragged down. .285-85-18-80-15 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Choo was one of the few bright lights for the Tribe in 2009. After posting a 1.038 OPS in the second half of 2008, Choo tossed off a respectable .883 last year in a 20/21 season to go along with 86 RBI and 87 runs.
It will take some team help for Choo to improve those numbers. We are cautiously optimistic that Grady Sizemore will be able to return to top form. If Michael Brantley (and his considerable speed and on-base skills) can remain at the top of the lineup and Jhonny Peralta returns to his 2008 form, it could be an excellent season for Choo, particularly if he starts to produce fewer ground balls. Were it not for the context questions, Choo would easily be in the discussion for the second tier of outfielders. .295-95-23-90-20 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 61 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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27 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 141 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
El Caballo posted another solid season in 2009, launching 26 homers and plating 102 RBI while batting an even .300. His ability to hit for power and average makes Lee an attractive option among NL outfielders. he should be even better in 2010 with a healthy Lance Berkman protecting him in the lineup. .305-75-30-105-5 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Lee's home run totals have dropped each of the past three seasons, and at age 33 there's reason to believe that his big decline has begun.despite his bulk, Lee used to be good for about a dozen steals per season, but he hasn't reached double digits since 2007. .290-60-23-90-3 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
A healthy Lance Berkman should help Lee's numbers this season, but we wouldn't count on more than about 30 homers and 100 RBI. Even so, Lee provides good power and average at a reasonable price; just be sure not to overpay. .300-70-28-100-5 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 63 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
|
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 95 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Upton possesses the kind of power and speed combination that makes Fantasy owners drool. He showed his power back in 2007, mashing 24 homers and batting .300 while stealing 22 bases. Recovery from shoulder surgery derailed his power last year, but the 25-year-old still managed to steal 42 bases -- bringing his stolen sacks total to 86 over the past two seasons. He is likely playing for a big free agent deal this season, so the motivation is certainly there to excel. .290-100-20-80-50 in 590 AB. |
Negatives/Downside:
Upton's slugging percentage actually dropped during the second half of last season, suggesting that maybe the shoulder problem wasn't the only reason for his power outage. Upton's work ethic and attitude have rightly been questioned in the past, and there is reason to believe that he'll never again approach the kind of numbers he posted in '07. .255-75-10-60-35 in 520 AB. |
Analysis:
It's tough to know where to stand with Upton, but one thing is certain: he'll steal a bunch of bases for your fantasy cause. That alone makes him worth a mid-round draft pick, but expecting another .300 season with 20 bombs is a reach. .275-90-15-70-45 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 62 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
|
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 123 1 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Cruz had a breakout power season in 2009, crushing pitcher after pitcher en route to 33 long flies. The power and speed were new to Cruz, but another season like 2009 and he'll be worth every penny. .265-85-33-85-23 in 530 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Can he do it again? Break out seasons generally come before age 28, which causes more than a few red flags. There's a decent chance that Cruz returns to where he came from, leaving owners frustrated and searching for answers. .245-70-25-70-15 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
Cruz slugged 33 home runs in his first full season of action and looks to improve on that total this year. In early mock drafts, Cruz is going around the sixth round, which seems a bit high. He’s a legitimate 20/20 threat, but his low average leaves him below what he should be producing in runs and RBI. If he can become more disciplined at the plate, he’ll increase those totals, but don’t count on it. .255-80-30-80-20 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 71 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
26 |
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$ |
13 (2) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 139 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Manny is separated by one season from the unbelievable finish to an already fine 2008 campaign. While he was not great in 2009, pro-rated over his usual 150+ games he would have tallied 30 home runs and 90+ runs and RBI. Were it not Manny with all the expectations generated by 2008, plus the baggage generated by the substance suspension where would you take a 30-90 type outfielder with a .290 batting average? We fully support downgrading Manny off his usual expectations due to age or even just Manny-being-Manny. But we can't see pushing him down so far that it doesn't reflect the actual contributions he made last season. Even in his "bad" September on, Manny hit four home runs and drove in 14 which over seven months would be good.
Obviously Manny will be your "risk" pick, but there's nothing there to say that Manny won't still be Manny... in the good sense. .320-95-35-110-0 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Questions surround the Dodgers franchise in light of the divorce of the McCourts and the business plans drawn up for potential investors showing a planned reduction in payroll of nearly a third. The one given is that it seems unlikely that Manny could possibly be moved unless he is having a great season and the Yankees could be convinced to take some of the money remaining left on his deal that expires this season. If he's having a bad year, he'll be un-movable, as the Dodgers have no money to send with Manny and wouldn't, if this plan is to be believed, take a contract back. They'll just eat the rest of the deal and take the compensation that would come if Manny signs elsewhere next season.
Plus Manny could also still be Manny, in the bad way. And you don't want him ducking into a wall somewhere to urinate on your fantasy season. .290-75-23-80-0 in 400 AB |
Analysis:
One of the best right-handed hitters of all time and in his walk year. Even with the suspension and a poor September, Manny still produced at a .290-90-30-90-0 rate had he played 150 games. This is your risk pick, but proceed with confidence. .300-90-30-95-0 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 72 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
26 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 144 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
A lot of positives to go around. Abreu will help in runs, average, RBI, and stolen bases. Not many players can do that. If he can replicate his 2009 HR total (15), he'll end the year as a top-50 performer, who comes at a mere top-100 cost. .290-95-18-95-25 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Age, but nothing else, really. .280-80-10-70-15 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Abreu may not have the power yesteryear (curse you, 2005 Home Run Derby!), but he'll be an above average performer in the other four categories. With another year under his belt, expect the stats to decline a little bit, but no so much that he won't be a value. Abreu is in 'unsexy' pick territory and should out perform his ADP/$ value. .285-90-15-90-20 in 555 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 74 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
25 |
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$ |
20 (1) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 170 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Victorino will likely bat at the top of one of the most potent offense in baseball and this guarantees that his excellent run rates will continue... Although Victorino has plenty of speed, one should not expect a return to 2008 steals levels unless he moves to lead-off (or to the back of the order). One does not take the bat out of Ryan Howard's hands... Vicky's strikeout rates and walk rates have trended in the right direction since becoming a full-timer, so we should not be surprised that his batting average has increased... In July of 2008, Victorino hit 7 homers, leading many people to believe that he would strengthen the power component of his game (those people probably overpaid for 2009 and hate the man now). Some players of Victorino's ilk play for contact generally, but have latent power in situations where they are asked to do so. This is almost always reflected by a decrease in ground balls. In Vicorino's mythic July, his GB/FB remained the same -- he just hit nearly 20% of his fly balls into the bleachers, which only happens with the top power hitters. In short, it was luck, and you shouldn't count on it happening again. .300-100-10-60-28 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If Victorino is only hitting 10 home runs and stealing 25 bases, he's part of a very large group of players who are going for a heckuva a lot less. There's some talk that with Polanco on board Victorino moves to the bottom end of the order, in which case it's bye-bye 100 runs... It's not that Victorino does anything badly -- it's that unless he is stealing 35 bases, he doesn't do enough of anything to differentiate himself from the Marlon Byrds of this world who are going for half the price. .285-85-5-50-23 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
The Flyin' Hawaiian is in his prime, batting at the top (or bottom) of a high powered offense. Reliability is the key for this run-scorer. If he remains in front of Ryan Howard,a he is unlikely to be a top base stealer, and if he moves down in the order, he is likely to run more but is unlikely to score 100 runs. His upside is limited. .290-95-8-55-25 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 73 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
|
|
$ |
25 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Bourn can flat-out fly, and he proved that in 2009 by stealing an NL-best 61 bases. He also slugged 12 triples and batted a respectable .285, establishing himself as one of baseball's top speedsters. He should once again bat atop what figures to be an improved Astros lineup -- especially if slugger Lance Berkman can stay healthy for the entire season. .280-100-8-55-60 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Bourn's complete lack of pop -- he managed only 16 homers in four minor league seasons and just three last year -- should signal that he is indeed a one-trick pony. Factor in that his career batting average is a pedestrian .262 and that he fanned a whopping 140 times last season, and you have a bust waiting to, well... burst. .260-80-4-45-45 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Bourn's plate discipline is his bane, but he improved his OBP skills in 2009. If he can continue that trend, he'll be well worth a mid-round pick in fantasy drafts this season. The abundance of speed available late, though, makes us hesitant to recommend reaching for Bourn... rather, we'd recommend waiting until the price is right. .270-90-5-50-55 in 610 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 85 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
24 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 164 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
McCutchen took over the Pirates center field job at age 22. When you are looking at his numbers, keep telling yourself that. McCutchen jumped to double-A ball at the age of 19, then to triple-A the following season at age 20. In both cases he didn't exactly excel, but he did hold his own (particularly impressive at double-A Altoona -- "the Curve" is not a great place to hit). He hit .291 over a bit more than one full season in Indianapolis before the trade of Nate McLouth elevated him to the show where again he held his own... If you telescope his stats out over a whole season, you essentially have Shane Victorino, except a few more steals and home runs and a few less runs. And he's 22. And he's not costing you Victorino money (hint, hint). .295-100-18-70-40 in 625 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's a PIRATE fer crying out loud. Garrett Jones is going to drive him in? Andy LaRoche? One year we played the strategy of streaming whatever pitcher was facing the Kansas City Royals regardless of pedigree, isn't this a time to just bet against every single Pirate? .280-75-10-50-25 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
It's easy enough to dismiss McCutchen's potential based on his minor league numbers. Nothing superlative jumps out until you realize that he made it to the starting center field position of a major league team (insert Pittsburgh Pirate joke here) at age 22. He probably won't reach 100 runs because it's not exactly Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth hitting behind him, but would it be surprising if he surpassed Shane Victorino in stolen bases, RBI and home runs? And with a comparable batting average and just a tick fewer runs? .290-90-15-60-35 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 84 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
24 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 77 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
If Jones can build on his promising 2009, he'll be a true 5-category contributor. Jones is a perfect breakout candidate coming into the year and you can reap the rewards at a pretty good price. .280-90-28-80-18 in 530 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's coming off of injury, but how much will that influence his 2010 season? There's the chance that he doesn't come back at full strength and proceeds to struggle. .260-75-18-65-8 in 440 AB |
Analysis:
Adam Jones was coming into his own last season before a gimpy ankle cut his year short. Pacman (yes, why get rid of ridiculous nickname, when it can just be transferred) is a true five-category contributor and is a legit 25/20 threat. He could take a jump into the elite this year. .275-85-25-75-13 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 86 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
|
|
$ |
23 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 89 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Alex Rios has been a tout darling for many seasons now, and although the end results have been mixed, he still retains essentially the same skill set that made you like him in the first place. While not a slugger per se, Rios has some power, and his doubles rate show a very mild carpet influence from his time in Toronto (always something to check on double and triple rates). Despite his size, he is genuinely fast and doesn't get thrown out often. Some of what plagued him last season, particularly the end, were a series of small injuries and probably the same malaise that affected many Jays players at the end of the J.P Ricciardi era... Rios now finds himself on a team with a manager that will undoubtedly allow him to run and with an opportunity to make a fresh start. .290-95-23-85-28 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Rios has 3508 major league at bats, and the glorious prospects held out in front of him by many a tout have never fully materialized. A player of his size (6'5) rarely continues running throughout his career, and last year's 24 steals (after 32 in 2008) probably wasn't entirely the nagging injuries that followed him throughout the campaign. While it's true that Ozzie Guillen is likely to allow his team to run early, often, and at the most inopportune times, it's also possible that he will continue to turn the base-running lights green and then red and then green and... just as he did last season. With Juan Pierre presumably in the steals slot, it's reasonable to expect that Rios will be in a non-running slot, further curtailing his fantasy value. .260-75-15-70-15 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Alex Rios has always been an intriguing set of fantasy possibilities that has only infrequently turned into fantasy realities. Players of his size often start to replace their running game with a power game and that surely is the best case scenario for Rios. Unfortunately while we have some evidence of declining base-running, we have less evidence of any increase in power or even latent power to come. The most likely scenario is for Rios to continue doing what he has done but run a little less, which means he's likely to be a reasonably replaceable cog in your fantasy team. .280-85-18-80-20 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 95 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 145 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
McLouth possesses both power and speed, and he has smacked at least 20 homers two straight seasons and and stolen at least 19 bags three straight years. More of the same should be in store for 2010. .275-95-25-85-25 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
McLouth can stripe 'em and swipe 'em all right, but at what cost? His batting average has dropped each of the past two season, and the .276 he posted back in '07 is looking like the exception rather than the rule. With all of the cheap speed available out there, McLouth's modest skill set simply isn't worth the price. .260-75-18-65-18 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
McLouth will provide modest help in at least three categories, but his batting average could be a killer. He's not a bad pick 10-12 rounds or so into your draft, but he generally won't last that long. Pass on him and grab someone like Torii Hunter later on. .265-90-20-75-20 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 93 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 154 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Pence rebounded from a lackluster 2008 to post a strong line of .282-76-25-72-14 last season, while displaying the blend of speed and power that so endeared him to fantasy managers during his breakout 2007 campaign. His OBP jumped nicely upward last year, while his K rate dropped appreciably from his 2008 effort. Pence's best years may still lie ahead of him, and if last season was any indication, they should be exciting years indeed. .295-95-28-90-18 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Pence is not a very efficient base stealer (11 CS in 25 attempts last year), and his OBP skills are still rather mediocre. He batted a pedestrian .263 in the second half last season, while posting a lackluster .792 OPS. Which Hunter Pence will show up in 2010? .275-80-20-75-10 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Pence's inconsistency makes him something of a draft day gamble, but his five-category game is just too attractive to pass up. He may be limited by a weak supporting cast, but Pence should again provide at least serviceable production in most fantasy hitting categories this season. There is still a fair amount of upside here as well. Don't reach, but don't flinch, either. .290-90-25-85-15 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 87 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 74 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Hunter won't leave you disappointed in any category. If you are picking a balanced team, Hunter will be an excellent addition. Many believe that Hunter's numbers will start decreasing with his age, but he should have another good season left in him. He'll be available at a discount because of it. .285-85-23-90-20 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Hunter is always an injury risk, so beware. Also, maybe time does start to catch up to him in 2010. Either way, you won't need to spend too much for him, so it's worth the risk. .265-70-15-75-13 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
Hunter is one of the few five-category contributors that is available after the fifth round. He may not be a "sexy" pick, but he should produce as a low end No. 2 (12-team mixed) fantasy outfielder. .275-78-20-80-18 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 96 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
22 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 99 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
Even through his injured August, Ibanez maintained a constant level of line drives and fly balls. He rebounded extremely well in the final month, posting an .855 and knocking seven homes runs to go along with 20 runs. It's not going to go on forever, and he's not going to continue to hit 20% of his fly balls for home runs, but he should still contribute at a high level in three categories. .280-85-30-110-3 in 575 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There are distinct signs that the end is coming, and it may come quickly. His 2009 strikeout rate was 6.5% more than 2008 and nearly that much above his career. After his hot start, he batted .250 for most of the season. Compounding that fact is that Ibanez' first really good year came unusually late at age 30. What we are seeing now is his absolute peak, so when the end comes it won't be a gentle slide at all. .250-65-18-80-0 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Raul Ibanez signed with the Phillies prior to the 2009 season and instantly became this reviewers favorite pick. He moved from a terrible hitter's park into Citizen's park and from an iffy line-up to one of the Cadillac offenses of the NL. He was a bit old to be sure, but he had been such a consistent performer (more of this in a moment) that he seemed like a terrific power value for the price he was fetching. Ibanez got off to an MVP start with 17 home runs 40 runs and 46 RBI in the first two months and then faded... sort of. Here are his splits:
.295 15-6-13...
.396 22-7-31...
.291-16-5-20...
.218-8-2-14...
.233-13-1-16...
.314-11-2-16...
The wise observer will see that I have taken his 2008 splits for the Mariners and rearranged the order to mimic his 2009 splits. His lowest totals for any month except his lost August (injury) were 11-4-13 which is the kind of month that you'll find in almost any collection of split stats for a 100 RBI guy. And after that August, and most people had dropped Ibanez despite there not being a single interior number supporting it, Ibanez came back and went .250-20-7-14 for the final month. Further, his LD/GB/FB rates remained constant INCLUDING his bad August. The main change in August was that 4% of his fly balls went for home runs, whereas he topped 20% each and every other month.
The old saw here is true: that if Ibanez' problems had happened in May or June instead of at the trade deadline heading into the pennant race, wouldn't we have just said that these kinds of things happen to 37 year olds?
Now, Ibanez is 38 in June, his batting average after his hot start was in the .250's, and his strikeout rate went up a significant amount (23.8% vs. 2008's 17.3% and career 17.1%), so at the very best he'll be a three-category guy instead of a three and a half. But he's likely to keep Raul-ing along. .270-80-28-98-3 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 108 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
21 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 90 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Supreme talent. Maybe the surgery does the trick and makes him feel five years younger. .275-70-20-75-13 in 450 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
One never knows what you'll get from a 33-year old recovering from knee surgery -- perhaps a slow recovery with diminished power and speed. .260-55-13-60-8 in 375 AB |
Analysis:
It's usually the wrong thing to mention "outside" issues when projecting performances. As one old enough to remember the Bronx Zoo years of the New York Yankees, I can attest to the fact that teams can play just fine with all kinds of distractions. The current New York sports scene is filled with players with colorful, to say the least, private lives in and outside of marriages. But it becomes a matter for this forum when a player's health situation is affected by these "outside" factors. The Mets have, since the Wilpon family bought out the Doubledays, had reputation for... the polite word to say it is not having a clear management structure. The embarrassing mishandling of the firing of Willie Randolph was merely the most public of a series of "who's in charge" moments amidst rumblings about the actions of Jeff Wilpon, owner Fred Wilpon's son, often revolving around decisions made without proper authorization that would then have to be un-done or lived with.
No one knows how the conversations went between Omar Minaya, rumored to be increasingly isolated from team decision-making, and Carlos Beltran, regarding the off-season rehabilitation of his chronic knee issues. We have officially entered the "we are family" portion of that programming. It was a just the latest in a series of thoroughly unprofessional incidents involving the Mets, and you have to wonder whether all due diligence was done for the ongoing health of Beltran, one of the best players in baseball and a major investment for the Metropolitans.
But what we do know is that Beltran underwent surgery and there is a controversy as to whether this was done with Minaya's permission, the Mets as a team, or how. The procedure was evidently a standard scoping and not micro-fracture as sometimes reported, but it's still hard not to be nervous. The spectacularly talented Beltran is 33 in April. He has never consistently been a high-average hitter and derives much of his value both in fantasy and real baseball from his legs. He was off to a marvelous start in 2009 riding in part on in-play results 50 points above his career average. What he will be when he comes back is anyone's guess. Beltran was to start baseball activities 12 weeks from the surgery, which would place it in mid-April, so with rehabilitation, a early or mid-May return might be in order. .265-65-18-70-10 in 425 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 109 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
21 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 125 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Kubel was excellent last season, chalking up sterling numbers in HR, avg and RBI. The Twins improved their line-up this season, so Kubel could see an improvement in his noticeably low run total (73 in 2009). .300-80-30-105-0 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Doesn't offer any speed and could lose some playing time if Thome ever catches fire. .275-70-23-95-0 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Kubel is starting to show the promise which made him one of Minnesota's top prospects just a few years back. He'll split time at DH with Jim Thome and will play the rest of the games in the OF. He's now entering his prime and should make a really nice OF3 or OF4 for any fantasy team. .285-75-25-100-0 in 530 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 122 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
20 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 102 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cuddyer will go up and get his hacks in every time he steps up tot he plate. The former first-round pick has a bit of a career Renaissance in 2009 and should continue being a multi-category threat. .280-95-28-95-5 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Cuddyer posted stellar totals in HR, R, and RBI in 2009, but there may be some regression now at age 31. .265-80-20-80-3 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
The Twins outfield will feature Michael Cuddyer in right. He went on a hitting tear late in the season and ended up with a career high 32 home runs. Although I don't expect Cuddyer to hit that many home runs this season, he should still put up solid line of .275-92-25-93-5 -- and don't forget that he also is 1B-eligible, having played 34 games there filling in for Morneau last season. .275-90-25-90-5 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 121 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
20 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 77 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Gonzalez will contribute across all five categories and will come at a fairly discounted price. Nothing not to like here. .285-85-25-70-25 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's unproven over a full season. Those who believe in sophomore jinxes should steer clear. .265-75-15-55-15 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Carlos Gonzalez, a second half hero from 2009, will be at the top of any sleeper list produced for 2010. He’s a 5-category contributor who should be able to be gotten at a discount on draft day. I advise everyone to make a healthy effort to grab him -- you won’t be sorry. .275-80-20-60-20 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 123 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
20 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 99 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
He's slugged 57 homers in 968 Chicago AB or about 30 per 500 AB. Batting in the middle of a rejuvenated White Sox lineup, this means the opportunity to drive in runs in bunches. He gets on base reasonably well, although his batting average is a concern, so he should hold his own on runs. Heel problems can linger for years, but all reports are positive. Off-season wrist surgery was a routine matter to remove pins. .280-35-100-85-5 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Quentin hasn't played anything resembling a full season since 2006. Although he is not costing a lot this year, he still represents significant risk and is projected only to be a positive contributor in two categories (although not a net negative in R unless he gets pushed towards the end of the lineup). .250-65-25-70-0 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
When on the field, Carlos Quentin has become a reliable source of power. He is an extreme fly ball hitter, generating only 15.9% line drives for his career (Ryan Howard, for reference, has produced 23.3%). Because of this and despite the fact that he makes excellent contact for a power hitter, it is difficult for him to maintain a reasonable batting average. This makes Quentin a three category contributor and a potential negative in one.
I would certainly project Quentin at 35-40 dingers and 90-100 RBI in a healthy season. But even so, there's a significant risk he would hit .250 or less with next to no steals. It's not Jack Cust exactly, but hardly fantasy gold. He's healthy now and was quite good in a high-power, low-average way at the end of 2009. .260-75-28-90-3 in 450 AB
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| Recommended Draft Position: 120 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
20 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 98 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Hawpe will give you decent totals in R, RBI, HR, and BA. Nothing too spectacular, but quality nonetheless. .290-85-28-90-3 in 530 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency. Hawpe disappears during seasons and can really kill you. You can always track how he's doing by the number of home runs he hits. Once he starts having power outages, get him out of your line-up. .275-75-20-80-0 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
Expect Brad Hawpe to be moved at some point. The Rockies have better players on bench (Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs) and should be able to flip him for some pitching. He’ll produce above average numbers in both home runs and RBI, but he is an extremely streaky player who disappeared over last season’s second half. His value will decrease once he leaves Coors Field. .280-80-25-85-0 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 131 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 83 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Speed, runs and average. In a full season where he plays every day, Morgan could produce elite run and stolen bases numbers, while staying ahead of the curve in average. .300-95-0-40-45 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Power. Morgan has four career home runs, so don't expect too much there. .290-88-0-30-35 in 490 AB |
Analysis:
Nyjer Morgan was on his way to fantasy stardom in 2009 before a hand injury cut his season short. Morgan should have a full season in Washington to prove his worth and shouldn't disappoint. He'll be an elite source of steals and runs. If he can keep his average around 2009 levels, Morgan could end up a top-50 player that can be drafted outside the top 10 rounds. .295-85-0-35-40 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 128 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 106 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Hamilton will hitting in the middle of a potent Texas offense, which will provide him score of opportunity to be a high end producer. He plays at a great home park and without question has the ability to post a huge season -- if he could just stay on the field. .305-100-40-120-10 in 580 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
He can't stay on the field. Hamilton's injuries will give you fits. He turned in a low 2009 BA (.268) and won't come near his potential output if it doesn't get back to the .290-.300 level. .275-70-28-80-5 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
Josh Hamilton is easily one of baseball’s best talents, but avoid him at all costs in 2010. It’s not a reflection of his talent, but more of an indictment of his health. In his three big league seasons, Hamilton has turned more than 90 games only once -- 2008. That year, Hamilton played 156 games but faded in the second half of the year. Apparently the years of abuse he put on his body makes him unable to put together an entire season of greatness. Unless he comes at a massive discount, select a proven (i.e. safer) performer in his place. .295-80-33-95-8 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 129 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 78 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Damon will rack up some steals at the top of the Tigers line-up and should still score a decent amount of runs. He's a career .288 hitter and should provide some help there, too. .285-95-18-70-20 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's no longer playing in New York, which not only gave him line-up protection, but a stadium that was set up to his strengths. .270-80-10-55-10 in 480 AB |
Analysis:
Damon's 2009 resurgence may be lost to time now that he's in Detorit and out of the bandbox that is the new Yankee Stadium. Playing in an inferior Tigers line-up will direct impact the amount RBI and runs he'll produce. Without the short porch in right-field, look for a dip in his power totals too. He'll still provide some speed and average help, but don't expect another top-40 season out of him. .275-90-15-65-15 in 530 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 130 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 71 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bruce can absolutely mash the ball. In his sophomore campaign, he swatted 22 long flies in just 101 games. Bruce should be a good source of HR and RBI while chipping in some runs and a few SB. .270-80-30-90-8 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Average. Despite being a .300+ hitter in the minors, Bruce has yet to figure out big league pitchers on a consistent basis. He'll need to get the average up if he is going to make a real fantasy impact in 2010. .245-70-23-80-3 in 500 AB
Injuries. He missed the second half of 2009 with a wrist injury. Hand and wrist injuries generally have a longer recovery time before a player can regain his full power. |
Analysis:
Jay Bruce hit the scene two years ago and quickly established himself one of the best young power threats in the game. He was on pace for a around 35 HR last season, but a fractured wrist ended his season in July. He's being touted as a nice value (currently 115 ADP), and it's hard to argue with that. At his best, Bruce will surely outperform that draft position, but I find it hard to believe that a power hitter, less than a year removed from major wrist surgery, that he'll be able to recapture his former power right away. I find staying away from anyone the year after hand or wrist problems is a winning strategy. It can be quite the task hitting the ball when you can't properly grip the bat. He should be a great trade target around June. .260-75-28-85-5 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 132 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 291 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
An ideal lead-off hitter, Span brings advanced on-base skills and 20-steal ability to the table. With the Twins adding Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome, he could see a boost in his run total, and he's still young, so there's a reasonable chance of him taking another step forward in HR and SB. |
Negatives/Downside:
Span isn't likely to provide much in the way of power. His BABIP last season was rather high, suggesting a drop in batting average could be in store for 2010. He will also need to avoid letting his walk rate drop again, as it did last season from 2008's level. |
Analysis:
Fantasy owners can probably anticipate a 2010 season similar to 2009's output for Span. Atop the Twins' lineup, Span should have plenty of chances to run and score, giving him significant value in multiple categories. .290-100-8-50-22 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 168 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
16 |
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$ |
25 (1) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 43 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
IF he can build upon his terrific rookie season, Reimold will help out in runs, home runs, RBI and SB. Even his average should be a problem, expect it to be in teh .270-.290 range. |
Negatives/Downside:
He's coming off an Achilles' injury which could hamper his speed. There's always the prospect of a sophomore slump. |
Analysis:
Nolan Reimold is going to be a fantasy MVP this season. He's not going to turn heads with his performance, but he'll quietly produce in all five standard categories with an outside shot at being a 20/20 guy. You can nab Reimold at the end of drafts as a fifth outfielder, and he has the potential to be a top-30 guy -- a great value. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 169 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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16 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 67 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
80 is a reach, but he does have 93 steals in 808 major league at-bats, which would be 57 in 500 ABs. Do we have your attention? .300-100-5-65-45SB. 575ABs |
Negatives/Downside:
When you look at someone like Rajai and you see those 44 doubles and a good number of triples you are instructed to nod your head knowingly and say, this is not real power. And then you look at Rajai's Konerko-esque 27 and you stop nodding your head and start shaking it. Rajai's power game is that of Punch and Judy after Punch left to go solo. .280-70-5-50-35SB. 450ABs |
Analysis:
If the only thing that counted in baseball was hitting, Rajai Davis might have hit the major leagues in 2005 as a full-timer and we would have a very different profile here. Instead Davis hit .384 with a .994 OPS in 2002, .308 with a .799 OPS (40 steals) in 2003, .314 with a .812 OPS in 2004 (57 steals) and finally got out of A ball. And it's not that he strikes out or doesn't walk because he makes great contact and has a career .375 OBP in the minors. His major league OBP is artificially low because so much of the time he has come in defensively or as a pinch-hitter or pinch-runner. Situations where few hitters get on base regularly. In his two more or less real shots at playing in 2007 for the Giants last season and last season he got on at .363 and .360 respectively.
Rickey says Rajai is good, and the thing is that Rickey is right. Maybe not 80 steals right. .285-85-5-65-45. 525ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 166 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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16 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 79 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
This is still the same guy who joined the 40/40 club in 2006. He is no longer in his prime and has been slowed by injuries, but he still ranks as one of the most purely talented players in the game. He should be healthy and ready to go in time for spring training and has way more upside than anyone else you'll get for his perceived value. .285-90-30-90-15 in 500 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Yes, the upside is there, but the risk is tremendous. Another major injury is a distinct possibility, meaning a repeat of 2009, or worse, is a possibility. All the injuries have really taken a toll on his body, and that is one thing that can't be fixed. .265-70-20-70-5 in 350 AB |
Analysis:
How the mighty have fallen. It was only three years ago that Soriano was being scooped up at the beginning of the first round of fantasy drafts. 2009 was a complete disaster, but Soriano is still too talented a player not to bounce back. He won't be the Soriano you remember, especially at 34, but he should be much better in 2010, and might be greatly undervalued in your league. .275-80-25-80-10 in 450 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 165 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
16 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 75 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
It wasn't too long ago that fantasy experts were predicting big things for Corey Hart. While his 2009 campaign tempered these expectations, Hart is still young and could still turn things around. The most encouraging aspect of Hart's 2009 was a marked improvement in his BB%, going from 4.1% in 2008 to 9.1% last year. An appendectomy also cost him more than a month, ending any momentum he built from a strong July. With good health, a fresh slate, and improved plate patience, Hart could once again be a 20-20 outfielder. |
Negatives/Downside:
Hart's bump in BB% was accompanied by an increase in K%, sending mixed signals about to what extent he improved his approach at the plate. He also regressed from succeeding in 77% of SB attempts in 2007 and 2008 to only a 65% success rate in 2009, leading to fewer steals. Now two years removed from his 86-24-81-23-.295 production in 2007, his chances of approaching these numbers have dimmed. |
Analysis:
At this point, it no longer makes sense to project another significant step forward for Hart. He'll accumulate counting stats by virtue of being durable (appendectomy aside) and the Brewers' best option in RF, but be prepared to absorb a low batting average and uneven production. It's also worth noting he may suffer from a weaker run-production environment in Milwaukee, with Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez replacing Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy. .262-75-17-80-20 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 171 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
16 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 141 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Heyward is arguably the top hitting prospect in baseball, and he showed why in 2009. After starting the year in High-A ball, Heyward thrashed his way all the way to Triple-A, posting a combined stat line of .323-69-17-73-10 in 362 AB -- with an OBP of .408. He projects to be the Braves' everyday right fielder, and his skill set and stature draw comparisons to a left-handed Dave Winfield. we're down with that. .290-85-18-80-12 in 475 AB. |
Negatives/Downside:
Let's see, a can't miss prospect ready to dominate baseball? Does the name Alex Gordon mean anything to you? Before we start carving his Cooperstown plaque, let's remember that Heyward has exactly 13 Triple-A plate appearances to his credit. We like the skills, but until we see Heyward pound the pill against the big boys we're not going to over-spend to get him. .250-20-6-25-4 in 200 AB. |
Analysis:
Watch Heyward closely this spring, (everyone else will be) and include him in your draft plans if it looks like he'll break camp with the Braves. He's still very young, so expect some inconsistency -- but many signs point to a breakout season for Heyward in 2010. .275-80-16-70-10 in 455 AB. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 183 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
15 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 97 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ludwick had a huge breakout in 2008, but came down to Earth in 2009. However, with Holliday and Pujols in front of him in the line-up he should be able to mash more like he did in 2008. Furthermore, manager Tony LaRussa employs the best, and one has to think that Mark McGwire will have a nice influence on guys like Ludwick. |
Negatives/Downside:
Ludwick's 2008 season was a huge breakout, but he showed his true colors in 2009. He is a capable bat, but not someone who you can write in 25 homeruns and 100 RBI for. Keep you expectations modest, and you won't be disappointed. |
Analysis:
Ludwick is a tough one to call in 2010. On one hand having a Matt Holliday in the line-up for a full season may help his numbers, and Big Mac may help him improve his swing and mechanics. On the other hand, his 2009 numbers took a big dip from his 2008 totals. I think his 2010 numbers fall somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 campaign. .270-70-25-100-5 |
| Recommended Draft Position: 181 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
15 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 70 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Pierre still has great speed - he nabbed 30 bases last season despite only getting 380 AB - and now that he is likely to start once again, he should be a premier source for SBs. The last time he received full-time at-bats, he stole 64 bases, and he could approach that number this season. Pierre is also a career .301 hitter, giving him value in 3 categories. |
Negatives/Downside:
All of Pierre's value is wrapped up in his speed. If he suffers a leg injury, he can't make up for a drop in steals with production in other categories. If you draft Pierre, you'll need to compensate by fortifying your power numbers elsewhere. His batting average could also suffer from switching to the more difficult league. |
Analysis:
Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn are being highly drafted, while Pierre has been more of an afterthought at this point. This sets Pierre up to be a potentially strong value pick, offering similar production several rounds later. If you can make up for getting little in HR and RBI, Pierre offers a way to easily address SB with one player. .290-95-1-35-52 in 620 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 185 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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15 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 81 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
In 474 at bats last season, he scored 72 runs, hit 16 homeruns, and drove in 52 runs. Rasmus’s average probably won’t jump drastically as he continues to work on hitting lefties, but he should score a ton of runs hitting in front of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. His power should continue to develop, and we should see him steal more bases in his sophomore season. |
Negatives/Downside:
Rasmus had a very good rookie season for the Cards in 2009. However, he finished with a poor .251 average, mainly because he struggled against lefties. He has tons of upside, but he isn't ready to fulfill it. Don't pay for what Colby Rasmus will be a few years from now for the 2010 Colby Rasmus. |
Analysis:
Even if Rasmus doesn't explode in 2010, he is very likely to outperform his draft postion/auction value. I do think his struggles agaisnt lefties will continue some in 2010, preventing him from becoming a star right away. Still look for an improved Rasmus in 2010. .265-85-20-70-10 |
| Recommended Draft Position: 182 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
15 |
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0.0 (0) |
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