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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 228  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Pujols will be amongst the league leaders in average, runs, homeruns, and RBI. In fact, he finished in the top three in the National League in each of those four categories in 2009. His ability to post double digit steals makes him that much more valuable. With Matt Holliday in the line-up for a full season in 2010, Pujols could even have a career year. .335-120-45-130-15 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The Cards' line-up is good, but not great, which will prevent his RBI and run totals from truly shooting through the roof. I guess he could steal more bases. .300-100-35-110-5 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
In a draft, it is advised to take Pujols with the first pick. An argument can be made for going with Hanley Ramirez due to position scarcity, but Pujols is the safer pick and will outproduce Ramirez. In an auction, be willing to pay face value for him. As long as you don't significantly overpay, he will be worth every dollar you spend. In any league, he is the type of guy you build your team around. .320-115-40-120-10 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 1 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 195 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
It was another banner season for Ramirez in 2009, as the Marlins shortstop captured the National league batting crown with a mark of .342. If that weren't enough, the 26-year-old plated a career-high 106 runs, while scoring over 100 runs and stealing at least 27 bases for the fourth consecutive season. The Marlins figure to be in the think of things again this season, and Hanley should once again be mashing from the No. 3 hole in the lineup. Ramirez is one of the game's top fantasy players, and should be drafted in the top three in every league format. .345-125-35-115-35 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The ribbies may be up, but Ramirez's stolen base total has decreased each of the past three seasons, and it looks very doubtful that he'll ever make it back to the 50-steal mark again. Hanley's 24 dingers last year was also his worst showing in three seasons, and his 101 runs the lowest total in his four-year career. .310-95-25-95-25 in 575 AB |
Analysis:
Don't look for elite stolen base totals, but Ramirez remains one of fantasy baseball's best all-around players. You cannot go wrong in grabbing Hanley with the No.2 pick (after Albert Pujols) in just about any draft. .320-110-30-105-25 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 2 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 198 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Despite worries over the hip, Chase punched in and churned out a vintage Utley season. A poor September took the shine off his batting average, but there's nothing here to suggest that he will be anything other than what he has been - the best fantasy second baseman in baseball, playing for a good team and in a good park. .305-100-30-110-18 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Utley is age 31 coming off a significant injury. He did fade significantly in September (batting .198 with correspondingly poor secondary numbers). He's unlikely to be perfect again in stolen bases. The addition of Placido Polanco probably batting ahead of Utley (with Shane Victorino moving back in the order) potentially is a weaker table-setter. But it's hard to be too pessimistic here. .285-95-28-90-13 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Utley set aside fears about his hip by producing another first-round level season and along with it a career high in stolen bases. Owners shouldn't worry about his batting average drop. Although it would be foolish to expect a return to the .332 of 2007, most of his drop off in 2009 was due to a .198 September when he was playing through a severely bruised foot from a foul ball. Likewise, you shouldn't expect a perfect 23 for 23 in stolen bases.
Defensive metrics should generally be taken with a grain of salt, but stats like UZR and other range metrics can be used as an indicator of diminished speed. Utley's range factors were all down (UZR 10.8 down from a career high of 20.2 in 2008) but essentially equivalent to his 2006 numbers (9.3 UZR), so there doesn't appear to be any cause for concern going forward.
The main question with Utley is whether to take him before or after the top two outfielders (Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp). We say bid with confidence. .295-100-30-110-15 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 4 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 209 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Last season we said of Braun that he would get 20 steals -- "yeah, seriously" -- and 20 steals he got. Braun stole 8 in the final month of the season and looks to have built on the speed portion of his game. The days where Braun's strikeout rate was worrisome (112 in 451ABs in 2007) are long gone, and his walk rate has improved each season. Braun put the ball on the ground more than usual last season (GB/FB 1.36 vs. 0.88 in 2008) so we can expect Braun to hit a few more home runs this season as he returns to his normal flyball ratios. .325-115-38-120-20 in 650AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There aren't many negatives here. Milwaukee has replaced Felipe Lopez at the top of the order, perhaps with Carlos Gomez or Alcides Escobar, which means fewer baserunners. His BABIP was .351, so one might expect some regression there, but even in this case, batters often maintain .330+ in-play results from season-to-season. He only walked intentionally once in 2009, so perhaps he will get more intentional passes and lose RBI chances? .290-95-33-100-15 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Ryan Braun enters 2010 as our top outfielder in fantasy. If you felt the need to sacrifice a handful of home runs and a bit of batting average for extra steals, you could be excused for selecting Matt Kemp first, but Braun's 8-steal final month quashed any fear that he would not contribute in all categories. He's durable and consistent -- even in his "bad" July, he collected five home runs, 13 RBI and 18 runs. Select with confidence. .320-110-35-115-18 in 635 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 5 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Kemp is only 25 years old and has yet to enter into the prime of his career. His HR% has gone up each year as has his walk rates and HR/FB%. His strikeout rate is high, but improved slightly last season to 22.9% and he's established himself as a 75% plus base-stealer. If Kemp moves into the heart of the lineup, his countable numbers can only go up (see negatives here). .315-105-33-95-35 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
For whatever reason, Kemp has performed better in the top and bottom third of the batting order (.313 and .333 respectively) as opposed to four through six (.256), and the exact lineup has yet to be set for the Dodgers. Because of the uncertainties surrounding Manny Ramirez, the inconsistency of Russell Martin and the age of Casey Blake, there way be a limit as to what support he will be given. .295-90-25-85-25 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Context questions and Ryan Braun's fine finish in 2009 (.357 with eight steals from Sept. on) are the only thing that keep Matt Kemp out of the number one outfielder slot for 2010. At age 25 and coming off a 26/34 season, even more can be expected from the Dodger center-fielder. There's really no wrong choice between the two best fantasy outfielders in the game -- do you prefer a projected 35 home runs and 18 stolen bases? Or projected 30 and 30? Although Miller Park enjoys a reputation as a hitter's park, it's BPF rates as comparable to Chavez Ravine (which has always been a reasonable park for home runs). Both players are very durable, with neither missing significant amounts of time in their careers.
Kemp's 2009 numbers of 101 RBI and 97 runs came mainly out of the bottom third of the order, holding forth the promise that if he is moved up in the order better countables could follow. Speed, power and reliability for a probable contender is a formula for fantasy success. .305-100-30-100-30 in 600 AB
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| Recommended Draft Position: 6 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 162 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Prince has AVERAGED 40 dingers per season, and he's AVERAGED 111 RBI. Yet the man is only 26 years old in May. He's supposed to get better than this. The loss of Felipe Lopez and Mike Cameron might make some difference, but it's unlikely to be significant. The addition of Carlos Gomez and a full-time Alcides Escobar add a speed element to the batting order and might help Prince see even more pitches. .295-105-50-145-3 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If Ryan Braun regresses off his fine season and Gomez and Escobar are unable to step into full-time roles, the context for Fielder could be seriously affected. Plus, although he is still young, we expect some regression off of good seasons (as we saw with Fielder going from his 50 home run 2007 to his 34 home run 2008). But let's be clear, there are no gray skies here, just less blue. .280-85-35-100-0 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Prince Fielder tied Ryan Howard for the most RBI in baseball for 2009. Along with Howard, he is the best candidate for a 50 home run season in baseball, but unlike Howard we don't worry about a .250-type batting average in a poor season. One of the things that we like about Prince is the expansion of his on-base game. Prince saw 106 more pitches in 2009 than 2008 (in 3 more games played) which is the equivalent of burning an entire start for an opposing pitcher. And if you don't think this counts, ask a team like the Phillies if they'd have liked to have to go to the bullpen for all those extra pitches. .290-100-45-135-3 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 7 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 191 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Howard is one of the most consistent and best power hitters in all of baseball. Since becoming a full-time player, he has missed 100 runs once (94, in 2007) and has driven in 136 or more each season. After amassing 58 home runs in 2006, Howard has topped 45 each year since. Owners were even rewarded with 8 stolen bases last season. Plug in Ryan Howard and you're already ahead in the power categories. .280-105-50-145-5 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There is no reason to think Howard's production will drop off significantly. His BB/K ratio has diminished solely due to his intentional walks decreasing from a high of 37 in 2006 to only 8 in 2009. His BABIP rates are higher than league average, but last year's .325 was lower than his career mark of .327, and in any case, hitters can maintain "abnormal" BABIP season after season. As always with Howard, the question is whether you get the .279 version of 2009, or the .251 version of 2008. In either case, Howard's batting average is significantly worse that that of the other prime first base candidates and on the lower end would be a negative in even deeper leagues. .250-90-40-115-3 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
The possibility that Howard bats .250 keeps us from ranking Howard even higher. Howard's eight steals last season raise the possibility that he could add a small speed component to his arsenal, which would make him even more valuable that old "player-and-a-half" he already is for countable totals. As always, you'll want to plan ahead to insure your batting average in case of the worst case scenario, but Howard is one of the most consistent power hitters in all of baseball. .270-95-45-135-5 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 11 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 353 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Positive? It's no longer 2009.
Okay, okay David Wright has more going for him in 2010 than that. First is that unless the Mets are hiding something, there's nothing wrong with him. It's not the park, as he hit five home runs at home and five on the road (for the record, much of Citi-fields "problems" seem to be the injuries and failure of the Mets -- the Mets ranked higher in runs in Flushing than on the road). It's not the strikeouts (way up in 2009) because he was striking out more in May and June while he was batting .378 and .365 than he did later on... well, September he fell apart completely. LD%? GB/FB? Nope, all OK. Other than his lefty/righty splits, this looks like a real fluke. 16.7% hr/fb% in 2008 turns into 6.9% in 2009. Game set and match.
Wright is 27 and still the player he was prior to last season. Because of this, and because the Mets may be playing with a healthier line-up, we could expect a bounce back, particularly in the countables. Citi-field may suppress a few home runs (even after the center field wall is lowered to 8' from 16') but a first-round type performance seems possible. .315-100-25-110-28 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's stopped hitting righties. It's a real problem, and unless he figures it out, you can't be paying the price for him. To make a long story short, if he goes for second-round prices and earns first-round then this would be nice, but it's not going to put you on the podium. But if he costs you the same price and earns like a tenth-rounder, that will surely take you off the podium. .290-85-10-85-23 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
David Wright single-handedly sunk many a fantasy owner's hopes last season. The consensus top third baseman and frequent #3 overall selection churned out the numbers we have come to expect... from Randy Winn. Wright's numbers vs. righties have declined every season since 2006:
year BA/OBP/SLG L-R BB/K ...
2006 .321/.380/.549 0.93-0.46 ...
2007 .311/.404/.505 1.29-0.71 ...
2008 .275/.351/.484 1.42-0.62 ...
2009 .277/.361/.393 1.58-0.43 ...
This is past being a trend. Could the 27-year old star turn this around? You bet he could and I would like it to be on my dime... As long as it is only a dime. .300-90-20-90-25 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 15 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 173 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Everything. Tulowitzki will out-perform the average in all five offensive categories. He is one of a few elite shortstops, and having him man your six-hole will give you a massive advantage over other teams at the position. On top of that, the Tool is a candidate for an unworldly 35 HR/25 SB season. He'll be an excellent pick for anyone trying to build a balanced team from the get-go. .300-105-35-105-25 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There's always the possibility that Tulowitzki reverts back to his 2008 form if he succumbs to injuries, but I'll chalk that year up to a sophomore slump. .280-90-20-85-10 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
Depth is limited at shortstop, and it has pushed the value for the polished Polack threw the roof. Although he may come at cost, Tulowitzki is one of the few five-category contributors in all of baseball. He has a rare combination of speed, power, and position scarcity that will make him an excellent choice for your team. .295-100-30-95-15 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 17 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 153 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Upton is an elite outfielder for good reason. He'll fill up all five categories and create a huge disparity between him and almost every other outfielder. .300-110-35-115-30 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The possibility for the dreaded sophomore slump. .280-90-25-95-15 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
Justin Upton is truly an elite talent. He's one of baseball's few players that fills up all five categories on a consistent basis. The former number-one pick turned in an excellent season that had him amass 26 HR, 86 RBI, and 84 R, all while hitting .300 and swiping an impressive 20 bags. We can only assume that the 22 year-old will only improve on those stats this season. He's a top-five outfielder and will come off draft boards in the first two rounds. If you want him on your roster, you'll have to pay the price, but he should be worth it. .290-100-30-105-25 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 18 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 160 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
After being dealt to the Cardinals last year, Holliday hit .353-42-13-55 in just 63 games. Hitting behind Pujols for a full season bodes well for his 2010 fortunes. He will certainly see more than his share of RBI opportunities. .320-110-25-120-15 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While Holliday was fantastic last year with the Cards, a return to his 2007 totals in Colorado are highly unlikely. As good as Holliday is, his total of 36 homeruns in 2007 was aided by the thin Colorado air. Another concern is the drop in stolen bases he saw in 2009. Last year, Holliday stole just 14 bases, after totaling 28 in 2008. What's worse is that he stole just two of those 12 bases after his move to St. Louis. .300-100-20-100-5 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Holliday could be in line for a big season -- the type you'd call a career year, if it wasn't for his monster 2007 in Colorado. He is someone you can safely target on draft/auction day, but don't expect a return to more than 10-15 stolen bases. .315-105-25-115-10 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 19 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 145 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Gonzalez is a classic power-hitting first baseman. He'll offer elite home run totals, all the while giving you above average RBI and runs. He has a good average for a power guy (.277 in 2009), so he won't hurt you there. If he can get moved to a contender at some point this season, he should find himself among the second-half RBI leaders. He's an excellent candidate to trade for around mid-June. .285-100-45-110-0 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Don't expect any SB. .275-90-35-100-0 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Gonzalez is having problems seeing hittable pitches with no protection in the line-up. Instead of drafting the slugger, you may be wise to wait until the trade deadline and deal for him as he'll likely be moved to a contender. Considering the depth at first base, he's over-valued right now. There are similar options for a better value later on (vets Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman or youngster Billy Butler). .280-95-40-105-0 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 25 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 187 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Upside? He's healthy and runs.
OK, there's a bit more to say about it than this. After his first full season when Reyes learned to take a pitch he has been one of the most consistent players in baseball. His strikeout rates, walk rates and contact rates have been as close to statistically equal as you can get. The supporting cast has changed somewhat, but the players immediately after Reyes remain strong. The current plan is for Reyes to bat third until Carlos Beltran is ready to return and this gives the fantasy player a nice sense of security -- even if Reyes doesn't run, or runs at a reduced level, for the time being we can expect more RBI and perhaps a dash more power form Reyes to go along his consistent .280-.300 batting average. With Jason Bay batting close behind, Reyes should have chances to run even from the third position. They won't take the bat out of Bay's hands for the purpose, but he sees so many pitches that a runner like Reyes should have ample opportunities. .300-110-20-80-45 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Downside? He's not healthy and doesn't run.
Hamstring injuries, I do not like them, Sam-I-Am. It is hard to feel confident about Reyes' prospects for playing 150+ games as he did the four years prior to last season. He has a history of leg problems, and hamstrings are notorious for recurring, particularly in players of Reyes' physical type (large, well-muscled legs). Pundit predictions as of this writing range from 300 AB all the way to 684 and if you were to ask Bill James (who predicts 684), I am sure he wouldn't be the least surprised if Reyes did have continuing problems. Early reports have Reyes running normally in short sprints. I am sure, dear reader, that you know how to evaluate statements coming from early spring. The "prudent" position would to assume the Mets would baby their superstar shortstop and remove him at least partially from the running game, even if he is able to play significant games. .280-85-10-60-25 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
On the face of it, the risks surrounding Jose Reyes seem to overwhelm his potential value to a fantasy owner. After all, so much of his value is tied to the stolen bases generated by those knotted up legs, right? Well, yes and no. Let's look at the risk.
Stolen bases don't equate well with runs scored, on-base percentage and batting position do. Carl Crawford has stolen over 50 bases five times, yet scored 100 runs only twice in his fine career (the years when he was predominantly a lead-off man). When Ian Kinsler scored 101 runs with an OBP of .327, it was the just third time in the past decade that any player with an OBP of less than .330 scored 100. Jose Reyes isn't an on-base machine by any means, but he'll be batting third behind quality batters and then shift to lead-off when Beltran arrives. He's had had one of the most consistent walk rates amongst big leaguers since he "got it" in 2006. He'll get his runs even if he doesn't steal.
And if he spends a significant stretch in the three hole, as it seems likely with Beltran missing because of a controversial knee surgery, he could add-on some to his RBI totals. So what does Reyes look like in case he can't run? 100+ runs, 70-80 RBI, maybe 20 steals? (If those numbers look familiar, they should because that's what the top shortstops are looking at unless their name is Hanley, Troy or Rollins... and it's not far off Rollins even if Reyes doesn't run.
Price is everything here. If Reyes doesn't run he'll earn about as much as Derek Jeter (except in BA) and if he does run he instantly becomes lottery. So if Reyes' price tag drops, it seems like an excellent opportunity. We think he'll run some and out-earn every shortstop except Hanley .290-100-15-75-35 in 580 ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 22 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 187 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
For all the fantasy owners that have been burned by Rollins over the past two seasons, he remains one of the best Roto shortstops in the game. 20 home runs, 100 runs, 30 steals? I think you can find a use for that in everything but your three team, mixed, batting average-only league. Although it seems like Rollins has been around forever, and he does have over 1400 major league games, he's still just 31, playing for a powerful team and in a good ballpark. His lower run totals were almost entirely a product of his lower batting average (itself a factor of not hitting lefties, something he has had no real problem with in the past). There's no reason to think he won't hit .270 or more and score 100+ runs in this offense. .290-115-23-80-40 in 690 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Although you can excuse his 2008 campaign on the undisclosed leg problems, the overall arc of his career looks pretty clear with a peak in the 2006 and 2007 season and now a gentle or not gentle decline into usefulness. At this age, and with no real deterioration on the interior numbers, you wouldn't project more decline, but a return to the halcyon days seems improbable. .270-90-10-60-25 in 575 AB |
Analysis:
In retrospect it seems obvious that the MVP-caliber years of 2006 and 2007 were Rollins' career peak. He's still a dangerous power hitter and a definite threat to steal. But his lack of batting average combined with average on-base skills probably put the days of 130 runs out of reach.
Rollins is still a very usable fantasy player of course -- you just don't want to pay as if he were 26 and with the peak ahead, instead of 31 with the peak behind. He remains a linchpin shortstop in a great offense. I expect a rebound on his hitting rates vs. lefties and all his other numbers are are, once you remove the injury-plagued 2008, consistent with everything before them. He put the ball in the air more last season which probably explains both the low average and the 20 homes runs. Expect that all to move back to his normal numbers in 2010. .275-110-18-75-35 in 675 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 23 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 168 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Over 162 games Votto should make an impact in average, HR, RBI and runs. None of those totals will be elite numbers, but well above average. Votto's four category production makes him very valuable. .305-95-35-105-10 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's not a speed demon, but he could grab 6 bases or so. Health is the biggest concern with Votto. From bouts of depression to the bumps and bruises of the season, a more realistic game total would be around 140. .290-85-25-90-3 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Votto showed us last season why he's on the cusp of being among the elite at his position. Joey V posted a .322-82-25-84-4 line, in 131 games last season. Over a full 162, he can do some damage. He could be the perfect target if you miss out on the elite first baseman taken over the first fifteen picks. .300-90-30-95-5 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 26 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 178 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
I think we got a pretty good look at Reynolds' upside last season -- .260-98-44-102-24. That's going to be tough to top, but we now know what he's capable of. .260-100-45-110-20 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Potential bust factor. There's a good chance that Reynolds won't match the speed numbers and will need to keep his average at that .260 mark to truly be effective. Also stay away if your league counts strikeouts. .235-85-35-90-10 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
Reynolds finally put it all together in 2009 with a monstrous season. I have trouble believing he'll post the same kind of gaudy numbers again in 2010, but he should be useful nonetheless. He trended down towards the end of the season, posting only 8 HR and 3 SB after August 17th, which leads me to believe the speed numbers may have been an aberration. He'll still be an excellent source of power from your corner position, but remember, a lot of his value is wrapped up in his speed numbers, which he may have trouble replicating. He's going to be overrated coming into the year, so avoid the temptation of spending one of your first five picks on him. Don't pay for one huge season when there are other, more proven players that you can get for better value. .250-95-40-100-15 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 28 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 186 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Zimmerman took a huge step forward in 2009 and has pushed his way into the top-5 at third base. Zimmerman's 2009 was great, but a slight improvement again this year will push him into the top-20 overall players. in .295-105-35-105-3 in 610 AB
Upside: .300-115-35-115-3 |
Negatives/Downside:
Don't expect Zimmerman to terrorize the base paths. He stole just two bases in 2009. .280-90-25-95-0 in 570 AB
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Analysis:
Zimmerman is near the top of a position that does not reek of depth this season, and it's pushing his value through the roof. You'll need to spend a late second/early third round pick to acquire his services in 2010. He's a four category player who will make any team instantly better. If you can get him at his current draft position, he'll more than live up to expectations. .290-100-30-100-0 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 29 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 190 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Sandoval is only an elite contributor in average, but still provides enough HR, R, and RBI to make an impact across four categories. .330-90-30-100-5 in 585 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Somehow he was able to swipe five bags last season -- don't expect that again. .300-80-20-90-0 in 560 AB |
Analysis:
Sandoval will be among fantasy's best third baseman, and his average draft position is showing it. The 23-year old took a luge leap forward last season and may not see that kind of growth again in 2010. He'll need to significantly improve his numbers again to out-perform his current draft spot. Don't overspend for him. .320-85-25-95-3 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 32 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
32 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 162 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
At his best, Phillips will fill up all five categories. He's not elite in any one, but is very hard to find a player of such balance. .280-85-25-100-30 in 585 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If you are looking an elite source of a certain category, look elsewhere. Phillips is tailor-made for teams that build with balanced players. .270-75-18-85-20 in 560 AB |
Analysis:
Phillips remains a stud player at a position that usually lacks depth (second base). Although he's been trending down in home runs for the last three seasons, Phillips remains the most reliable power option from the position behind Kinsler and Utley and is a safe source of speed. There's no question Phillips will hit the 20/20 club again in 2010, maybe even 25/25. He's the perfect player for anyone who likes to build teams on balance. Phillips will come at a price -- anything after the third round should be considered a steal. He may not be truly elite at his position, but his consistency elevates him in a class above the Pedroias, Canos, and Hills of the world. .275-80-20-90-25 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 35 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
32 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 168 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ethier has increased his home run totals each year that he has played, posting 31 in 2009. Part of that is increased at-bats, but Ethier also put the ball in the air with greater regularity -- a significant 0.92 GB/FB, compared with 1.3 in the previous two seasons. Almost 10% more of his AB resulted in fly balls, and that means more home runs. Whether he can carry that over (or if it is desirable, see: negatives) is another question, but the extra fly balls came mainly at the expense of line drives, so presumably a regression would mean a return to a higher batting average. Ethier drove in 106 runs despite batting only .250 with RISP. It's hard to predict RISP, but were he to increase his efficiency there, a high RBI total would follow. Ethier turns 28 in April, so he is in the prime of his productive career. He's maddeningly inconsistent, but is so good (21 home runs and 57 RBI in 78 games from June to August last season) when hot that one can afford to wait out the lean stretches. .270-95-35-110-5 in 600 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
Much of Ethier's value is predicated on two things -- his ability to stay in the middle of the batting order and his ability to put the ball in the air. The Dodgers are notorious in in using different lineups daily, and with Ethier's propensity to disappear, that could mean many at bats in non-productive slots. If he returns to his previous fly ball rates, he becomes a 20 home run, .290 hitter, rather than a .270-something, 30 home run hitter -- a trade-off few fantasy owners would take. .280-75-20-80-5 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Many people remarked on the contrast between Andre Ethier's performance with Manny Ramirez than without him in 2008 and predicted similar results for 2009. Owners were generally rewarded for doing so, however Ethier had an even larger inconsistency in previous seasons without Manny being involved. Ethier is capable of performing with the best sluggers out there for long stretches of time, followed by weeks and weeks of lack of production. On balance, the 28 year-old (in April) will produce season-end numbers that make him just a rung below the top groups of outfielders. Just remember to carry plenty of antacid.
Ethier's numbers against left-handers are very poor and have declined each year to a sub-Mendoza performance last season with a correspondingly bad .629 OPS. Although in general it's not a good practice to consider "protection" in real baseball or fantasy, for players with Ethier's increasingly extreme split, he's a lot more likely to find pitches in RBI situations with a big right-handed hitter hitting behind him (and here were are talking about Manny Ramirez). Placement in the order will be very important for Ethier
Watch also Ethier's fly ball rate (use the fly balls separated from line drives), as this should give you a good idea whether Ethier will be the .300/20 home run version or the .275/30 home run version. .275-95-30-105-5 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 36 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
31 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 225 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
McCann followed up his stellar 2008 season with another strong effort in '09, smacking out 21 homers and plating 94 RBI while batting .281. Though he has played four full seasons in the bigs, McCann is still just 26 years old and should continue to produce at a high level for years to come. His 94 RBI last year was a career best, and he is a virtual lock to be right around 20 homers and 90 ribbies again in 2010. .300-75-28-100-5 in 520 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While that .281 last year looks nice, it represented a 20-point decline from the .301 McCann batted in 2008. His walk rate, slugging percentage and OPS all took a sharp drop as well -- leading many to wonder whether he'll ever approach the .333 he stroked out back in 2006. .275-55-20-80-0 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
McCann is a solid and reliable producer, but may not be worth his price in single-catcher leagues. There are several backstops available late in the draft that are capable of launching 20 bombs and knocking in 70-80 runs. Don't overpay for McCann, but he is a true "worry free" option as your Fantasy catcher. .290-65-25-90-3 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 43 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
30 |
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$ |
20 (1) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 179 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Every time Werth has been healthy, nearly 20% of his flyballs have turned into home runs, around double the league averages. Despite a career high 156 strikeouts, he actually improved his strikeout rate and walked 91 times vs. a previous career high of 57. Werth is a reliable source of additional steals. Good park, good lineup -- what's not to like? .275-100-35-100-20 in 575 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
This is the longest that Werth has played without a major injury. Although he improved his strikeout rate, 156 strikeouts is a pretty heavy number. It's not unusual for a player with this many strikeouts and of his age to decline and sometimes rapidly. .250-75-25-75-10 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Werth is one of those players who, due to his previous injury history, generates wildly divergent projections if you stick with your formulas. Werth had 571 AB last season, yet most published projections have him getting 450-500 ABs. Since the Phillies would love for Werth to get another 571 ABs, in essence, what my learned colleagues are saying is that he plays himself out of AB, except they are not, since most of them are projecting that Werth will produce at an equal or even higher rate of Home Runs and RBI. Or that he will get injured, which given how many years he battled with hand and wrist issues, is certainly possible. Of course, the projection isn't based on someone sitting down and guessing that he will miss 20 games for this- that- or the other-thing. Instead it's just an average of his previous playing time with various adjustments thrown on.
The reason I mention this is that the Phillies might give him more than the three games of rest he got last season, but it's highly unlikely they will give him 23 games of rest. So it's a better than fair bet that he'll get last years AB or he'll spend time on the DL, in which case you'll be able to slot in at least replacement level production if your league set up allows.
I've been a big fan of Jayson Werth since that first half season for the Dodgers in 2004 when he hit 16 home runs in 89 games. That number is real. In his five seasons where he has significant playing time, his HR/FB was under 18.3 (about double an average player) once, and that was the 2007 year when he was trying to play through both knee and wrist problems. .265-90-30-90-15 550ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 42 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
30 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 149 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Dunn was once a mortal lock for 40 HR, but last year's 38 will do. Too bad he didn't play on a better team, or he'd have definitely driven in more than 105 runs. Dunn needs to keep his average up if he wants to crack the top-50 again. .265-85-40-110-3 in 540 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Dunn strikes out a ton and is about as slow as it gets. He's in John Olerud territory when it comes to speed. If Dunn can't keep his average up, he'll become a negative player in the category, and that will severely limit his value. .240-70-30-90-0 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Adam Dunn finished as one of baseball's better performers last year because he was able to hit around .270. If he can keep that average from falling back into the .240 range he'll be a great value in 2010. .250-80-35-100-0 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 57 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
28 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 178 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Injuries derailed Berkman's 2009 season, but the slugger still managed a solid .274-73-25-80-7 line in just 460 AB. One need only look at the .312-114-29-106-18 line Berkman laid on the board in 2008 to know what he's capable of producing, and that talent will be available at a bargain price this season. .300-100-33-100-8 in 570 AB. |
Negatives/Downside:
Berkman is 34 and has a history of injuries, both nagging and major. Betting on Lance to stay on the field for 150-plus games is a risky venture, and it may well be that 2009 was the beginning of the end of Berkman's fine career. .275-75-20-75-3 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
Berkman's injury history is indeed troubling, and the depth at first base this season makes him a very risky option early in your draft's middle rounds. Don't be afraid to grab him if he falls too far, though. .285-90-28-90-5 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 58 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
28 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 154 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
When healthy Ramirez ranks amongst the betters hitters in the game. If you project A-Ram's 306 at bats in 2009 over a full season, you are looking at something in the neighborhood of .315-90-30-120-4. That's pretty darn good. If Ramirez can stay healthy in 2010 you could steal elite numbers without having to pay full price for them. .310-85-30-110-0 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Ramirez biggest downside is obviously the injury risk he carries. In fact, while he always misses sometime, 2009 ranks as the most injury plagued season of his career, which raises fears that his body may be breaking down. .290-65-20-80-0 in 400 AB |
Analysis:
Ramirez spent about half of 2009 on the shelf, but put up great numbers when he was on the field. Ramirez always misses some time, but as long as he stays healthy enough to approach 500 at-bats he will be productive enough to be an asset to any fantasy team. Of course the possibility of another major injury lingers. .300-80-25-100-0 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 53 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
28 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 185 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Uggla plays long ball as very few other second basemen can -- 2009 marked his third straight season with at least 31 bombs. He has finished at least second in homers among big league second basemen each of his four seasons and has plated at least 88 RBI in each of his four MLB seasons. More of the same should be in store for 2010, and fantasy owners should once again enjoy Uggla's penchant for power pop. .260-95-33-100-5 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
What they won't enjoy is Uggla's woeful batting average, which lags well behind the average for starting big-league keystone-sackers. Uggla finished 22nd at his position in batting average last season, and with a career mark of just .257, there's not much upside here. Oh, the power will be there, but there will be a hefty price tag attached. .245-80-25-80-0 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Think of Uggla in the same terms as Carlos Pena of Tampa Bay -- they are both very good at what they can do (namely, leave the yard) and very bad at what they can't do (make contact). Both have their place in fantasy lineups, but adding either of them to your roster requires a heavy investment in high-average hitters elsewhere. With the abundance of decent options at second base this year, it's hard to recommend reaching for Uggla -- rather, wait and see if he falls too far in your draft. .250-90-30-90-3 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 65 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 141 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
El Caballo posted another solid season in 2009, launching 26 homers and plating 102 RBI while batting an even .300. His ability to hit for power and average makes Lee an attractive option among NL outfielders. he should be even better in 2010 with a healthy Lance Berkman protecting him in the lineup. .305-75-30-105-5 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Lee's home run totals have dropped each of the past three seasons, and at age 33 there's reason to believe that his big decline has begun.despite his bulk, Lee used to be good for about a dozen steals per season, but he hasn't reached double digits since 2007. .290-60-23-90-3 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
A healthy Lance Berkman should help Lee's numbers this season, but we wouldn't count on more than about 30 homers and 100 RBI. Even so, Lee provides good power and average at a reasonable price; just be sure not to overpay. .300-70-28-100-5 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 63 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 179 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
2009 was a huge resurgence for Lee. He posted his best home run total in years and set a career high with 111 RBI. He is very reliable in the average department, having posted an average of at least .285 in each of his past five seasons, including a .306 mark last season. .300-95-28-105-5 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Lee's return to being an elite power hitter came out of nowhere last season. It seems very unlikely that he will match his power totals from 2009 in 2010. In fact, prior to last season, Lee was considered by nearly everyone to be a guy firmly on the downside of his career. .285-80-20-85-0 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Lee’s 2009 was his best season since his huge 2005. Can he repeat that performance? Probably not, but he will come close. The Cubs lineup should be lethal, guaranteeing Lee plenty of opportunities to score runs and drive in his teammates. However, note that stolen bases are no longer part of his game. .295-90-25-100-3 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 59 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 139 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Manny is separated by one season from the unbelievable finish to an already fine 2008 campaign. While he was not great in 2009, pro-rated over his usual 150+ games he would have tallied 30 home runs and 90+ runs and RBI. Were it not Manny with all the expectations generated by 2008, plus the baggage generated by the substance suspension where would you take a 30-90 type outfielder with a .290 batting average? We fully support downgrading Manny off his usual expectations due to age or even just Manny-being-Manny. But we can't see pushing him down so far that it doesn't reflect the actual contributions he made last season. Even in his "bad" September on, Manny hit four home runs and drove in 14 which over seven months would be good.
Obviously Manny will be your "risk" pick, but there's nothing there to say that Manny won't still be Manny... in the good sense. .320-95-35-110-0 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Questions surround the Dodgers franchise in light of the divorce of the McCourts and the business plans drawn up for potential investors showing a planned reduction in payroll of nearly a third. The one given is that it seems unlikely that Manny could possibly be moved unless he is having a great season and the Yankees could be convinced to take some of the money remaining left on his deal that expires this season. If he's having a bad year, he'll be un-movable, as the Dodgers have no money to send with Manny and wouldn't, if this plan is to be believed, take a contract back. They'll just eat the rest of the deal and take the compensation that would come if Manny signs elsewhere next season.
Plus Manny could also still be Manny, in the bad way. And you don't want him ducking into a wall somewhere to urinate on your fantasy season. .290-75-23-80-0 in 400 AB |
Analysis:
One of the best right-handed hitters of all time and in his walk year. Even with the suspension and a poor September, Manny still produced at a .290-90-30-90-0 rate had he played 150 games. This is your risk pick, but proceed with confidence. .300-90-30-95-0 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 72 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
26 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 170 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Victorino will likely bat at the top of one of the most potent offense in baseball and this guarantees that his excellent run rates will continue... Although Victorino has plenty of speed, one should not expect a return to 2008 steals levels unless he moves to lead-off (or to the back of the order). One does not take the bat out of Ryan Howard's hands... Vicky's strikeout rates and walk rates have trended in the right direction since becoming a full-timer, so we should not be surprised that his batting average has increased... In July of 2008, Victorino hit 7 homers, leading many people to believe that he would strengthen the power component of his game (those people probably overpaid for 2009 and hate the man now). Some players of Victorino's ilk play for contact generally, but have latent power in situations where they are asked to do so. This is almost always reflected by a decrease in ground balls. In Vicorino's mythic July, his GB/FB remained the same -- he just hit nearly 20% of his fly balls into the bleachers, which only happens with the top power hitters. In short, it was luck, and you shouldn't count on it happening again. .300-100-10-60-28 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If Victorino is only hitting 10 home runs and stealing 25 bases, he's part of a very large group of players who are going for a heckuva a lot less. There's some talk that with Polanco on board Victorino moves to the bottom end of the order, in which case it's bye-bye 100 runs... It's not that Victorino does anything badly -- it's that unless he is stealing 35 bases, he doesn't do enough of anything to differentiate himself from the Marlon Byrds of this world who are going for half the price. .285-85-5-50-23 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
The Flyin' Hawaiian is in his prime, batting at the top (or bottom) of a high powered offense. Reliability is the key for this run-scorer. If he remains in front of Ryan Howard,a he is unlikely to be a top base stealer, and if he moves down in the order, he is likely to run more but is unlikely to score 100 runs. His upside is limited. .290-95-8-55-25 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 73 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
25 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bourn can flat-out fly, and he proved that in 2009 by stealing an NL-best 61 bases. He also slugged 12 triples and batted a respectable .285, establishing himself as one of baseball's top speedsters. He should once again bat atop what figures to be an improved Astros lineup -- especially if slugger Lance Berkman can stay healthy for the entire season. .280-100-8-55-60 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Bourn's complete lack of pop -- he managed only 16 homers in four minor league seasons and just three last year -- should signal that he is indeed a one-trick pony. Factor in that his career batting average is a pedestrian .262 and that he fanned a whopping 140 times last season, and you have a bust waiting to, well... burst. .260-80-4-45-45 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Bourn's plate discipline is his bane, but he improved his OBP skills in 2009. If he can continue that trend, he'll be well worth a mid-round pick in fantasy drafts this season. The abundance of speed available late, though, makes us hesitant to recommend reaching for Bourn... rather, we'd recommend waiting until the price is right. .270-90-5-50-55 in 610 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 85 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
24 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 164 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
McCutchen took over the Pirates center field job at age 22. When you are looking at his numbers, keep telling yourself that. McCutchen jumped to double-A ball at the age of 19, then to triple-A the following season at age 20. In both cases he didn't exactly excel, but he did hold his own (particularly impressive at double-A Altoona -- "the Curve" is not a great place to hit). He hit .291 over a bit more than one full season in Indianapolis before the trade of Nate McLouth elevated him to the show where again he held his own... If you telescope his stats out over a whole season, you essentially have Shane Victorino, except a few more steals and home runs and a few less runs. And he's 22. And he's not costing you Victorino money (hint, hint). .295-100-18-70-40 in 625 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's a PIRATE fer crying out loud. Garrett Jones is going to drive him in? Andy LaRoche? One year we played the strategy of streaming whatever pitcher was facing the Kansas City Royals regardless of pedigree, isn't this a time to just bet against every single Pirate? .280-75-10-50-25 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
It's easy enough to dismiss McCutchen's potential based on his minor league numbers. Nothing superlative jumps out until you realize that he made it to the starting center field position of a major league team (insert Pittsburgh Pirate joke here) at age 22. He probably won't reach 100 runs because it's not exactly Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth hitting behind him, but would it be surprising if he surpassed Shane Victorino in stolen bases, RBI and home runs? And with a comparable batting average and just a tick fewer runs? .290-90-15-60-35 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 84 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
24 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 145 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
McLouth possesses both power and speed, and he has smacked at least 20 homers two straight seasons and and stolen at least 19 bags three straight years. More of the same should be in store for 2010. .275-95-25-85-25 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
McLouth can stripe 'em and swipe 'em all right, but at what cost? His batting average has dropped each of the past two season, and the .276 he posted back in '07 is looking like the exception rather than the rule. With all of the cheap speed available out there, McLouth's modest skill set simply isn't worth the price. .260-75-18-65-18 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
McLouth will provide modest help in at least three categories, but his batting average could be a killer. He's not a bad pick 10-12 rounds or so into your draft, but he generally won't last that long. Pass on him and grab someone like Torii Hunter later on. .265-90-20-75-20 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 93 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 154 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Pence rebounded from a lackluster 2008 to post a strong line of .282-76-25-72-14 last season, while displaying the blend of speed and power that so endeared him to fantasy managers during his breakout 2007 campaign. His OBP jumped nicely upward last year, while his K rate dropped appreciably from his 2008 effort. Pence's best years may still lie ahead of him, and if last season was any indication, they should be exciting years indeed. .295-95-28-90-18 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Pence is not a very efficient base stealer (11 CS in 25 attempts last year), and his OBP skills are still rather mediocre. He batted a pedestrian .263 in the second half last season, while posting a lackluster .792 OPS. Which Hunter Pence will show up in 2010? .275-80-20-75-10 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Pence's inconsistency makes him something of a draft day gamble, but his five-category game is just too attractive to pass up. He may be limited by a weak supporting cast, but Pence should again provide at least serviceable production in most fantasy hitting categories this season. There is still a fair amount of upside here as well. Don't reach, but don't flinch, either. .290-90-25-85-15 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 87 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 99 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Even through his injured August, Ibanez maintained a constant level of line drives and fly balls. He rebounded extremely well in the final month, posting an .855 and knocking seven homes runs to go along with 20 runs. It's not going to go on forever, and he's not going to continue to hit 20% of his fly balls for home runs, but he should still contribute at a high level in three categories. .280-85-30-110-3 in 575 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There are distinct signs that the end is coming, and it may come quickly. His 2009 strikeout rate was 6.5% more than 2008 and nearly that much above his career. After his hot start, he batted .250 for most of the season. Compounding that fact is that Ibanez' first really good year came unusually late at age 30. What we are seeing now is his absolute peak, so when the end comes it won't be a gentle slide at all. .250-65-18-80-0 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Raul Ibanez signed with the Phillies prior to the 2009 season and instantly became this reviewers favorite pick. He moved from a terrible hitter's park into Citizen's park and from an iffy line-up to one of the Cadillac offenses of the NL. He was a bit old to be sure, but he had been such a consistent performer (more of this in a moment) that he seemed like a terrific power value for the price he was fetching. Ibanez got off to an MVP start with 17 home runs 40 runs and 46 RBI in the first two months and then faded... sort of. Here are his splits:
.295 15-6-13...
.396 22-7-31...
.291-16-5-20...
.218-8-2-14...
.233-13-1-16...
.314-11-2-16...
The wise observer will see that I have taken his 2008 splits for the Mariners and rearranged the order to mimic his 2009 splits. His lowest totals for any month except his lost August (injury) were 11-4-13 which is the kind of month that you'll find in almost any collection of split stats for a 100 RBI guy. And after that August, and most people had dropped Ibanez despite there not being a single interior number supporting it, Ibanez came back and went .250-20-7-14 for the final month. Further, his LD/GB/FB rates remained constant INCLUDING his bad August. The main change in August was that 4% of his fly balls went for home runs, whereas he topped 20% each and every other month.
The old saw here is true: that if Ibanez' problems had happened in May or June instead of at the trade deadline heading into the pennant race, wouldn't we have just said that these kinds of things happen to 37 year olds?
Now, Ibanez is 38 in June, his batting average after his hot start was in the .250's, and his strikeout rate went up a significant amount (23.8% vs. 2008's 17.3% and career 17.1%), so at the very best he'll be a three-category guy instead of a three and a half. But he's likely to keep Raul-ing along. .270-80-28-98-3 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 108 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
21 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 103 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
If Drew ever comes through on his talent, he could be an sneaky five-category player. He lost his power last season but could just as easily rebound in 2010. He does turn 27 this year. .280-85-18-75-5 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Drew's stats took a massive nosedive in 2009, and there's the potential that continues in 2010. .260-70-13-60-3 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
Perennial bust Stephan Drew has rightly slipped in the pre-season ranks. He's coming off a pretty brutal season, which saw him hit a frightful .261. Drew may make a nice post-hype sleeper, but avoid having him as your every-day shortstop. See if you can nab him late in shallow mixed drafts, stash him on your bench and wait to see if he turns it around. .270-80-15-70-5 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 114 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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21 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 90 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Supreme talent. Maybe the surgery does the trick and makes him feel five years younger. .275-70-20-75-13 in 450 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
One never knows what you'll get from a 33-year old recovering from knee surgery -- perhaps a slow recovery with diminished power and speed. .260-55-13-60-8 in 375 AB |
Analysis:
It's usually the wrong thing to mention "outside" issues when projecting performances. As one old enough to remember the Bronx Zoo years of the New York Yankees, I can attest to the fact that teams can play just fine with all kinds of distractions. The current New York sports scene is filled with players with colorful, to say the least, private lives in and outside of marriages. But it becomes a matter for this forum when a player's health situation is affected by these "outside" factors. The Mets have, since the Wilpon family bought out the Doubledays, had reputation for... the polite word to say it is not having a clear management structure. The embarrassing mishandling of the firing of Willie Randolph was merely the most public of a series of "who's in charge" moments amidst rumblings about the actions of Jeff Wilpon, owner Fred Wilpon's son, often revolving around decisions made without proper authorization that would then have to be un-done or lived with.
No one knows how the conversations went between Omar Minaya, rumored to be increasingly isolated from team decision-making, and Carlos Beltran, regarding the off-season rehabilitation of his chronic knee issues. We have officially entered the "we are family" portion of that programming. It was a just the latest in a series of thoroughly unprofessional incidents involving the Mets, and you have to wonder whether all due diligence was done for the ongoing health of Beltran, one of the best players in baseball and a major investment for the Metropolitans.
But what we do know is that Beltran underwent surgery and there is a controversy as to whether this was done with Minaya's permission, the Mets as a team, or how. The procedure was evidently a standard scoping and not micro-fracture as sometimes reported, but it's still hard not to be nervous. The spectacularly talented Beltran is 33 in April. He has never consistently been a high-average hitter and derives much of his value both in fantasy and real baseball from his legs. He was off to a marvelous start in 2009 riding in part on in-play results 50 points above his career average. What he will be when he comes back is anyone's guess. Beltran was to start baseball activities 12 weeks from the surgery, which would place it in mid-April, so with rehabilitation, a early or mid-May return might be in order. .265-65-18-70-10 in 425 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 109 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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21 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 88 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Stewart crushes the ball and could be an excellent source of home runs this season. He'll be a solid three category contributor (HR, R, RBI) and come at a pretty cheap price. He even has a little bit speed to go with it (7 SB in 2009). .260-85-28-90-10 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Batting average. You'll need to draft Mauer or Ichiro to mitigate the damage Stewart might do. Watch out. .245-75-20-75-5 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
Stewart qualifies at both second and third, which is value right off the bat. He could kill your average but provide quality HR, R, and RBI numbers. I can't recommend any player that kills you in a category like Stewart will in average. .255-80-25-80-8 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 116 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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20 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 77 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Gonzalez will contribute across all five categories and will come at a fairly discounted price. Nothing not to like here. .285-85-25-70-25 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's unproven over a full season. Those who believe in sophomore jinxes should steer clear. .265-75-15-55-15 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Carlos Gonzalez, a second half hero from 2009, will be at the top of any sleeper list produced for 2010. He’s a 5-category contributor who should be able to be gotten at a discount on draft day. I advise everyone to make a healthy effort to grab him -- you won’t be sorry. .275-80-20-60-20 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 123 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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20 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 98 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Hawpe will give you decent totals in R, RBI, HR, and BA. Nothing too spectacular, but quality nonetheless. .290-85-28-90-3 in 530 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency. Hawpe disappears during seasons and can really kill you. You can always track how he's doing by the number of home runs he hits. Once he starts having power outages, get him out of your line-up. .275-75-20-80-0 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
Expect Brad Hawpe to be moved at some point. The Rockies have better players on bench (Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs) and should be able to flip him for some pitching. He’ll produce above average numbers in both home runs and RBI, but he is an extremely streaky player who disappeared over last season’s second half. His value will decrease once he leaves Coors Field. .280-80-25-85-0 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 131 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 141 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Escobar followed up his fine 2008 season with another strong showing in 2009, batting .299-89-14-76-5 in 528 AB. He posted an outstanding .401 OBP in the second half, and his homer rate ticked upward a bit as well. There is still some upside in Escobar's game -- especially in the homer department -- and he should be in for more nice numbers as the Braves' full-time shortstop in 2010. .295-95-18-85-8 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Middle infield is filled with speedsters -- and Escobar (this one, anyway) is not one of those burners. He has managed only 12 thefts in 371 big league games, and that trend is not likely to reverse any time soon. .285-80-13-65-3 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Once the top shortstops are off the board, a consistently productive player like Escobar becomes an attractive option later in the draft. Ideally, Escobar should be paired with a high risk / high reward player (Alcides Escobar, maybe?) to hedge your bets in case Alcides turns out to be more bust than burner. look for more of the same from Escobar in '10 -- and that's not a bad thing at all. .290-85-15-80-5 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 138 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 83 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Speed, runs and average. In a full season where he plays every day, Morgan could produce elite run and stolen bases numbers, while staying ahead of the curve in average. .300-95-0-40-45 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Power. Morgan has four career home runs, so don't expect too much there. .290-88-0-30-35 in 490 AB |
Analysis:
Nyjer Morgan was on his way to fantasy stardom in 2009 before a hand injury cut his season short. Morgan should have a full season in Washington to prove his worth and shouldn't disappoint. He'll be an elite source of steals and runs. If he can keep his average around 2009 levels, Morgan could end up a top-50 player that can be drafted outside the top 10 rounds. .295-85-0-35-40 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 128 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 83 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Montero will give you above average totals in runs, RBI, home runs and average (for a catcher). He's a young guy and should only improve on his breakout 2009. .290-68-20-75-0 in 475 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Catchers can be a fickle bunch, so it wouldn't take anyone by complete surprise if he regressed in 2010. .260-60-15-65-0 in 430 AB |
Analysis:
This season, you may be able to wait at the position and get top-five value later on in the form of Miguel Montero. The power-hitting backstop got increased reps as the season went along and turned the extra at bats into 16 HR and 59 RBI. Montero is now the D-Backs starting catcher, and with a full season under his belt comes the possibility of a big breakout campaign in 2010. If you don't feel like spending a high pick on some of the elite catchers, wait and grab Montero later on. You won't be sorry. .275-65-18-70-0 in 460 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 139 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 71 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bruce can absolutely mash the ball. In his sophomore campaign, he swatted 22 long flies in just 101 games. Bruce should be a good source of HR and RBI while chipping in some runs and a few SB. .270-80-30-90-8 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Average. Despite being a .300+ hitter in the minors, Bruce has yet to figure out big league pitchers on a consistent basis. He'll need to get the average up if he is going to make a real fantasy impact in 2010. .245-70-23-80-3 in 500 AB
Injuries. He missed the second half of 2009 with a wrist injury. Hand and wrist injuries generally have a longer recovery time before a player can regain his full power. |
Analysis:
Jay Bruce hit the scene two years ago and quickly established himself one of the best young power threats in the game. He was on pace for a around 35 HR last season, but a fractured wrist ended his season in July. He's being touted as a nice value (currently 115 ADP), and it's hard to argue with that. At his best, Bruce will surely outperform that draft position, but I find it hard to believe that a power hitter, less than a year removed from major wrist surgery, that he'll be able to recapture his former power right away. I find staying away from anyone the year after hand or wrist problems is a winning strategy. It can be quite the task hitting the ball when you can't properly grip the bat. He should be a great trade target around June. .260-75-28-85-5 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 132 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 112 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Soto showed us what he is capable in his 2008 Rookie of the Year campaign when he hit .285, and added 23 homeruns and 86 RBI. There is no debating that his 2009 season was a huge disappointment, but even if he doesn't return to his 2008 form, he's a lock to improve in 2010. Rumor is that he has slimmed down some this offseason as well, and a more fit Soto is likely a better Soto. |
Negatives/Downside:
Last season Soto hit .218, scored 27 runs, hit 11 homeruns, and drove in 47. Quite a slide after Soto's breakout 2008 season. He'll have to correct a lot if he's going to become an fantasy asset, and anything less than a huge improvement won't make him all that desirable of an option. |
Analysis:
Soto’s 2009 was a disaster after his 2008 Rookie of the Year campaign. Soto never got it going with the bat, ended up losing at bats to Koyie Hill, and finished with a pitiful .218 average. Soto is a talented player, and I expect him to bounce back in 2010. If owners in your league are scared off by his 2009 campaign, take a chance on Soto. .270-65-20-75-0 |
| Recommended Draft Position: 147 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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18 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 82 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Jones' 2009 season was shortened by injuries, but the veteran has batted over .300 three of the past four seasons, including a stellar .364 in 2008. He is a career .307 hitter, and is bound to bounce back in 2010. Despite his pedestrian numbers last season, Jones still managed to post a hefty .388 OBP. With quality third basemen at a premium this year, Jones presents a quality option that won't break your Fantasy bank. .300-90-28-95-5 in 480 AB. |
Negatives/Downside:
Jones' average dropped a cool 100 points last year over his '08 showing, and he is showing the classic signs of a player in decline. He should rebound somewhat this season, but his days as a .300-30-100 guy are long gone. .280-80-22-75-2 in 430 AB. |
Analysis:
Jones is a serviceable option at third base, but be ready to draft your backup hot corner man early to account for Chipper's inevitable injuries. Stay alert - his injury history may cause him to fall into the Bargain Basement. .285-85-25-80-3 in 450 AB. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 144 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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18 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 97 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
If you're willing to gamble on Weeks staying relatively healthy this season, he offers plenty of potential. Last year he looked well on his way to producing the kind of season many have long expected, with 9 HR and a .272 AVG in 147 AB before a wrist injury ended his season, and in preceding years he showed 20 SB ability. If you're lucky and get 500 AB from Weeks, he could reward you with 15 HR and 20 SB, making him a rather valuable 2B. |
Negatives/Downside:
Unfortunately, Weeks' injury history makes him a risky proposition. It's especially troubling that he continues to have problems with his wrist, which could erode his ability to hit for power. Last year's strong start is difficult to evaluate since we have such a small sample size to work with, but seeing his line drive % come in 6% higher than his career mark, along with an elevated HR/FB figure gives one pause about getting overly excited about the hot start. |
Analysis:
Don't necessarily be scared off from Weeks. If you find yourself staring at unappealing, "safe" options at 2B in the middle rounds of your draft, making an upside play on Weeks wouldn't be a bad idea. Just keep in mind that later it would be a good plan to add some insurance at 2B. .255-80-12-60-18 in 400 AB. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 153 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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17 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 108 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cantu is a fine natural hitter; heck, he's so good he even wears his batting helmet over his eyes to make things fair. Apart from having one of the worst cap styles in the bigs, Cantu is a pretty solid corner infield option. he plated 100 RBI last season - his second straight with at least 95 ribbies - and batted a strong .289. His homer rate dipped, but after having smacked 29 dingers in '08 and 28 back in '05 there's certainly room for recovery. .290-80-25-105-4 in 620 AB. |
Negatives/Downside:
Corner infield is one of Fantasy baseball's "power" spots, and 16 dingers just won't cut it. The Marlins pulled Cantu off the scrap heap two seasons ago, and there has to be a reason he was there. Prospects Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez may push Cantu for playing time this season. .265-65-15-60-2 in 470 AB. |
Analysis:
Cantu should push his homer numbers up a bit, but it would be surprising to see him knock in a C-note again in 2010. In any event, he should be a good "fall-back" option at the corner infield positions. .280-75-20-85-4 in 540 AB. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 157 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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17 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 90 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Helton will always deliver a spectacular average and playing in this speedy Colorado line-up could foster some RBI. |
Negatives/Downside:
The main two arguments against Helton are his age and position. Expect a drop off in Helton's gaudy 2009 stats due mainly to old age. Also, with first base being the deepest position going into the year, there's no need to spend the kind of money that will be required to attain Helton's services. |
Analysis:
If you’re counting on Todd Helton to recapture his 2009 magic, you’re in store for a rude awakening. In deeper leagues, he can help with average and maybe RBI, but in any 10-team league, consider him nothing more than an old man who is easily frightened by computers. Keep him off your team. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 158 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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17 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 118 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Doumit demonstrated what he is capable of in a fine finish to the 2009 season - hitting .329 with a solid .865 OPS in the final month. Like most hitters his performance is tied to his line drive rates and he's historically shown that he can sustain 20% rates there, which makes him a dangerous catcher. Pittsburgh's team outlook seems healthy going into 2010, there's no longer this fatal atmosphere within the organization. With some exciting young talent arrived (Andrew McCutchen) and close (Pedro Alvaraez, the fine 3B prospect), the potential is here for some over-achieving instead of the Bucs annual under achieving. .305-70-18-75-4sb 500ABs |
Negatives/Downside:
Because of the injury history and because it is the Pirates you have to balance the potential upside against both total failure (injury), and failure by proxy (Ryan plays well, but can't rack up R's or RBI because of the batting lineup surrounding him). .275-30-12-35-0. 300ABs |
Analysis:
In this case the Ryan Express goes straight to the DL. The man can just flat out hit, but he has been, hitherto, unable to stay on the field. Doumit posted a 1.045 OPS in his first triple-A stint earning him a trip to Pittsburgh in 2005. Since then he has managed 260 Abs per season with a high of 431 in his fine 2008 campaign. As a fantasy owner, particularly in larger formats or 2 catcher set-ups, you have to keep this in mind.
The other problem with Doumit is, of course, the quality of the lineup around him. Even if Doumit is healthy how will Garret Jones perform? Andrew McCutchen? If Doumit were to stay healthy he could still post very ordinary numbers. There's a lot of moving parts between Doumit and a big fantasy season. His 2008 numbers .318/.357/.501 seem like a peak, but are still reflective of his overall ability going into his age 29 season - but it's not all up to him.
Therefore, Doumit is a paradox for us. He's an intriguing risk/reward pick for leagues where there is something of a safety net. His upside if everything falls right places him just below the top catchers. But he's almost an "avoid" in leagues where there would be no safety net or the bench spot for a handcuff (we can't recommend carrying Jason Jaramillo even as a handcuff). .290-60-15-70-2. 475ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 160 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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17 |
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