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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 195  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
It was another banner season for Ramirez in 2009, as the Marlins shortstop captured the National league batting crown with a mark of .342. If that weren't enough, the 26-year-old plated a career-high 106 runs, while scoring over 100 runs and stealing at least 27 bases for the fourth consecutive season. The Marlins figure to be in the think of things again this season, and Hanley should once again be mashing from the No. 3 hole in the lineup. Ramirez is one of the game's top fantasy players, and should be drafted in the top three in every league format. .345-125-35-115-35 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The ribbies may be up, but Ramirez's stolen base total has decreased each of the past three seasons, and it looks very doubtful that he'll ever make it back to the 50-steal mark again. Hanley's 24 dingers last year was also his worst showing in three seasons, and his 101 runs the lowest total in his four-year career. .310-95-25-95-25 in 575 AB |
Analysis:
Don't look for elite stolen base totals, but Ramirez remains one of fantasy baseball's best all-around players. You cannot go wrong in grabbing Hanley with the No.2 pick (after Albert Pujols) in just about any draft. .320-110-30-105-25 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 2 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 175 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Everything. Tulowitzki will out-perform the average in all five offensive categories. He is one of a few elite shortstops, and having him man your six-hole will give you a massive advantage over other teams at the position. On top of that, the Tool is a candidate for an unworldly 35 HR/25 SB season. He'll be an excellent pick for anyone trying to build a balanced team from the get-go. .300-105-35-105-25 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There's always the possibility that Tulowitzki reverts back to his 2008 form if he succumbs to injuries, but I'll chalk that year up to a sophomore slump. .280-90-20-85-10 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
Depth is limited at shortstop, and it has pushed the value for the polished Polack threw the roof. Although he may come at cost, Tulowitzki is one of the few five-category contributors in all of baseball. He has a rare combination of speed, power, and position scarcity that will make him an excellent choice for your team. .295-100-30-95-15 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 17 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 188 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Upside? He's healthy and runs.
OK, there's a bit more to say about it than this. After his first full season when Reyes learned to take a pitch he has been one of the most consistent players in baseball. His strikeout rates, walk rates and contact rates have been as close to statistically equal as you can get. The supporting cast has changed somewhat, but the players immediately after Reyes remain strong. The current plan is for Reyes to bat third until Carlos Beltran is ready to return and this gives the fantasy player a nice sense of security -- even if Reyes doesn't run, or runs at a reduced level, for the time being we can expect more RBI and perhaps a dash more power form Reyes to go along his consistent .280-.300 batting average. With Jason Bay batting close behind, Reyes should have chances to run even from the third position. They won't take the bat out of Bay's hands for the purpose, but he sees so many pitches that a runner like Reyes should have ample opportunities. .300-110-20-80-45 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Downside? He's not healthy and doesn't run.
Hamstring injuries, I do not like them, Sam-I-Am. It is hard to feel confident about Reyes' prospects for playing 150+ games as he did the four years prior to last season. He has a history of leg problems, and hamstrings are notorious for recurring, particularly in players of Reyes' physical type (large, well-muscled legs). Pundit predictions as of this writing range from 300 AB all the way to 684 and if you were to ask Bill James (who predicts 684), I am sure he wouldn't be the least surprised if Reyes did have continuing problems. Early reports have Reyes running normally in short sprints. I am sure, dear reader, that you know how to evaluate statements coming from early spring. The "prudent" position would to assume the Mets would baby their superstar shortstop and remove him at least partially from the running game, even if he is able to play significant games. .280-85-10-60-25 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
On the face of it, the risks surrounding Jose Reyes seem to overwhelm his potential value to a fantasy owner. After all, so much of his value is tied to the stolen bases generated by those knotted up legs, right? Well, yes and no. Let's look at the risk.
Stolen bases don't equate well with runs scored, on-base percentage and batting position do. Carl Crawford has stolen over 50 bases five times, yet scored 100 runs only twice in his fine career (the years when he was predominantly a lead-off man). When Ian Kinsler scored 101 runs with an OBP of .327, it was the just third time in the past decade that any player with an OBP of less than .330 scored 100. Jose Reyes isn't an on-base machine by any means, but he'll be batting third behind quality batters and then shift to lead-off when Beltran arrives. He's had had one of the most consistent walk rates amongst big leaguers since he "got it" in 2006. He'll get his runs even if he doesn't steal.
And if he spends a significant stretch in the three hole, as it seems likely with Beltran missing because of a controversial knee surgery, he could add-on some to his RBI totals. So what does Reyes look like in case he can't run? 100+ runs, 70-80 RBI, maybe 20 steals? (If those numbers look familiar, they should because that's what the top shortstops are looking at unless their name is Hanley, Troy or Rollins... and it's not far off Rollins even if Reyes doesn't run.
Price is everything here. If Reyes doesn't run he'll earn about as much as Derek Jeter (except in BA) and if he does run he instantly becomes lottery. So if Reyes' price tag drops, it seems like an excellent opportunity. We think he'll run some and out-earn every shortstop except Hanley .290-100-15-75-35 in 580 ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 22 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 188 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
For all the fantasy owners that have been burned by Rollins over the past two seasons, he remains one of the best Roto shortstops in the game. 20 home runs, 100 runs, 30 steals? I think you can find a use for that in everything but your three team, mixed, batting average-only league. Although it seems like Rollins has been around forever, and he does have over 1400 major league games, he's still just 31, playing for a powerful team and in a good ballpark. His lower run totals were almost entirely a product of his lower batting average (itself a factor of not hitting lefties, something he has had no real problem with in the past). There's no reason to think he won't hit .270 or more and score 100+ runs in this offense. .290-115-23-80-40 in 690 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Although you can excuse his 2008 campaign on the undisclosed leg problems, the overall arc of his career looks pretty clear with a peak in the 2006 and 2007 season and now a gentle or not gentle decline into usefulness. At this age, and with no real deterioration on the interior numbers, you wouldn't project more decline, but a return to the halcyon days seems improbable. .270-90-10-60-25 in 575 AB |
Analysis:
In retrospect it seems obvious that the MVP-caliber years of 2006 and 2007 were Rollins' career peak. He's still a dangerous power hitter and a definite threat to steal. But his lack of batting average combined with average on-base skills probably put the days of 130 runs out of reach.
Rollins is still a very usable fantasy player of course -- you just don't want to pay as if he were 26 and with the peak ahead, instead of 31 with the peak behind. He remains a linchpin shortstop in a great offense. I expect a rebound on his hitting rates vs. lefties and all his other numbers are are, once you remove the injury-plagued 2008, consistent with everything before them. He put the ball in the air more last season which probably explains both the low average and the 20 homes runs. Expect that all to move back to his normal numbers in 2010. .275-110-18-75-35 in 675 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 23 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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34 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 104 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
If Drew ever comes through on his talent, he could be an sneaky five-category player. He lost his power last season but could just as easily rebound in 2010. He does turn 27 this year. .280-85-18-75-5 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Drew's stats took a massive nosedive in 2009, and there's the potential that continues in 2010. .260-70-13-60-3 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
Perennial bust Stephan Drew has rightly slipped in the pre-season ranks. He's coming off a pretty brutal season, which saw him hit a frightful .261. Drew may make a nice post-hype sleeper, but avoid having him as your every-day shortstop. See if you can nab him late in shallow mixed drafts, stash him on your bench and wait to see if he turns it around. .270-80-15-70-5 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 114 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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21 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 141 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Escobar followed up his fine 2008 season with another strong showing in 2009, batting .299-89-14-76-5 in 528 AB. He posted an outstanding .401 OBP in the second half, and his homer rate ticked upward a bit as well. There is still some upside in Escobar's game -- especially in the homer department -- and he should be in for more nice numbers as the Braves' full-time shortstop in 2010. .295-95-18-85-8 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Middle infield is filled with speedsters -- and Escobar (this one, anyway) is not one of those burners. He has managed only 12 thefts in 371 big league games, and that trend is not likely to reverse any time soon. .285-80-13-65-3 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Once the top shortstops are off the board, a consistently productive player like Escobar becomes an attractive option later in the draft. Ideally, Escobar should be paired with a high risk / high reward player (Alcides Escobar, maybe?) to hedge your bets in case Alcides turns out to be more bust than burner. look for more of the same from Escobar in '10 -- and that's not a bad thing at all. .290-85-15-80-5 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 138 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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19 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 94 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Theriot is capable of delivering solid production across the board at a shallow position. Last season, Theriot added some power, jumping from 1 HR in 2008 to 7 HR, while still delivering 21 SB and a .284 BA. There is also talk that, to make way for top prospect Starlin Castro, Theriot could move to 2B, enhancing his versatility for fantasy owners. |
Negatives/Downside:
The underlying numbers aren't encouraging for Theriot. His SO% in 2009 jumped (8.8% in 2008 to 13.7%) while his walk rate declined, and the extra HR were at least partly a function of luck. His HR/FB spiked to 3.0%, more than double the rate of any other year in which he was a regular. |
Analysis:
As someone with the ability to get on base and run to go along with regular playing time, Theriot is an asset, albeit an unexciting one, at SS. Owners who draft Theriot should recognize he is more likely to regress than improve in 2010. .280-80-4-45-22 in 585 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 192 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 96 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Exciting switch-hitting young middle infielder. 73 steals in 2008 in single-A ball and held his own as a starting shortstop in the bigs. Good on-base skills and could lead off at least part time. .280-90-5-50-55. 575ABs |
Negatives/Downside:
Lost control of the strike zone at times. Poor fielding may cost him playing time. If he struggles could be relegated to the bottom part of a poor batting lineup. .260-65-2-35-35. 475Abs |
Analysis:
With only 27 at-bats above single-A ball, Everth Cabrera became the full time starting shortstop in one of the most difficult ballparks in which to hit with a team that was, shall we say, offensively challenged. Over 103 games he batted .255 with an OBP of .342 and stole 25 bases.
In a fantasy season where so much speed is flying around and relatively cheap speed, it's even more enticing than usual to move your speed to a middle infield position where the marginal power difference is not so costly. In 2008 Cabrera, playing Sallie ball swiped 73 bags. The speed is serious and he carries a nifty .384 OBP in the minors to go along with the .342 he marked on the big league level last season.
It must be said that Cabrera is a terrible shortstop defensively and he'd almost certainly benefit from the short throw at 2B where he played many of his minor league games. He'll improve, but you'll need to watch if this costs him at-bats.
If he can play the field, Cabrera looks to provide fantasy owners with a wealth of steals in the middle. .270-85-3-40-45SB 525ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 190 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 105 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
A highly regarded prospect, Escobar enters 2010 as the Brewers starting SS with little in the way of competition. He offers a good deal of SB potential, having amassed 176 steals in 6 minor league seasons. His other major asset is being a fairly good contact hitter - a .280 or .290 average wouldn't be unreasonable. |
Negatives/Downside:
At this point, Escobar won't produce much power; he slugged .376 in the minors and lower than that in limited ABs with the Brewers last season. If he gets unlucky with his BABIP or just doesn't hit for average, he lacks the secondary skills to find ways on base to run and score. |
Analysis:
Realize Escobar is a top prospect in large part due to his defensive prowess. In strictly fantasy terms, we can only really count on him stealing bases this season, especially if he finds himself hitting low in the Milwaukee lineup. Don't let the hype he carries as a prospect trick you into reaching too highly for him, particularly in leagues for this season only. .260-70-4-50-26 in 520 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 191 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 76 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
OBP was down in 2009, but not due to a loss of the strikezone. He's healthier than he has been in recent seasons and finished 2009 in fine form. With Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez (in a walk year no less) projected to hit behind him, it could be a fine bounceback year for Furcal. .295-110-15-70-25. 650ABs |
Negatives/Downside:
Unless Furcal runs, he's a one category contributor. Other than steals, how are those numbers different than Marco Scutaro in Fenway for example? And then you add in his continual leg problems the past couple of years. .265 85-6-60-15. 575ABs |
Analysis:
Furcal played 150 games last season for the dodgers in his most durable season since changing his address to Chavez Ravine. It was a forgettable season and a poor return on investment for those who bumped him up the charts based on his fragmentary 2008 (.357 and Five homes runs in 143 BA) No such luck.
Furcal switch hits, but is much better against lefties than righties which isn't the way you would prefer it. He's also much more consistent against lefties so while it's always true that how a hitter fares against righties will largely dictate the quality of their season. It is particularly true for the strong-armed shortstop who didn't throw out his absolute worst season against righties, but it was not good, only a .679OPS and .091 ISO.
Still, Furcal gave us plenty of reason to hope for this season, in his final 80 games of the season Furcal batted .295 with six home runs and 57 runs scored. Although leg issues mean he'll never be stealing 40 again, he managed seven steals over the same period. If that seems...familiar, well it should because as a full timer with the Braves he averaged 13 home runs and 108 runs. It's also approximately equivalent to what he did in his first season with the Dodgers with 6 home runs and 87 runs over 138 games.
Although there are reasons - Russell Martin - to doubt - starting pitching - the Dodgers - Russell Martin - this - starting pitching - season, Furcal has opportunity to score a ton of runs batting forward of Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez. Don't go crazy of course - he's unlikely to hit for a plus average and no longer will get a lot of steals (you'd have to be happy with 20). But if he garnered 110 runs it wouldn't be a surprise. .285-110-10-60-20.650 ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 193 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 86 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Barmes will hit 20+ dingers and steal around double digit bases. Along with it, he'll provide servicable totals in runs and RBI. |
Negatives/Downside:
His average is troublesome and he'll go through peroids where he'll absolutly sink your team. |
Analysis:
Barmes, like many Rockies, is a very streaky player, but he will be able to contribute towards your power numbers. He also possess multiple position eligibility, which can come in handy when injuries start to hit. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 220 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 71 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Hmmmmm...the Giants offense should be better this year? How about...he couldn't be worse in 2010 than he was in 2009? |
Negatives/Downside:
He is coming off two seasons of declining production and started losing at bats to boarderline big leaguers last season. The fact is that Renteria got old really fast. The power is gone, the speed is gone, the average is gone--the value is long gone. You are much better going with someone with more upside in 2010. |
Analysis:
Renteria is just not worth your time. He doesn't do enough of anything to make him worth a roster spot, and completely lacks upside of any kind at this point. Just say no. .265-60-7-50-5 in 475 at bats |
| Recommended Draft Position: 334 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 89 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ryan had a fantastic 2009 in which he hit .292 and stole 14 bases in just 390 at bats. He is a cheap source of steals, and proved last year that he can swing the stick enough to post a strong average. He won't fit a lot of homeruns, but should score a decent number of runs as a member of a pretty strong Cards' line-up. |
Negatives/Downside:
Ryan was never a prospect and his minor league numbers suggest that Ryan is not someone who can conistently post an average near .300. Even his 14 stolen bases seem like an overachievement since he only topped that total once in the minors. Ryan's value to a further hit when the Cards recently signed Felipe Lopez, who could easily steal at bats from both Ryan and Skip Schumaker. |
Analysis:
There really isn't anything about Ryan to get excited about. He has limited upside, and isn't really worth your time unless you are desperate for a cheap source of steals. .275-45-3-35-10 in 350 at bats |
| Recommended Draft Position: 336 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 87 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Guzman has been a reliable source of batting average for three years running. A long as he does that and remains in a reasonable spot in the order, he'll score a few runs. .285-70-7-40-5. 550ABs |
Negatives/Downside:
He's such a terrible hitter that even the Nationals will have to wake up and smell the coffee. Formerly a fine fielder, Guzman has posted negative UZR's since joining the Nationals. Since they are going nowhere, a sensible team would give their fans a chance to see Desmond, and their management to see if he is a major league player. .270-30-5-25-2. 250ABs |
Analysis:
Prior to the 2005 season, the Montreal Expos decided they needed to bring in a couple of players for their fans as they moved to Washington to become the Nationals. One of those players was Cristian Guzman. It was an odd signing, $16 million dollars over four years for a player who had gotten on base south of .300 as many times as north, with only a single season above .311. Contrast this with Felipe Lopez, coming off a season where he hit above .300 (he's hit .320 since leaving the Nationals a couple of seasons ago) and got on-base at a .383 rate. His take? one year for a couple of million. Guzman stunk his first season with the Nationals, getting on-base an almost unbelievable .260, yet still sent out for 142 games. And then, mercifully, he got injured.
The player that came back was unrecognizable. In 2007 and 2008 Guzman got on-base at a .380 and a still respectable .345 while batting well over .300. And then, in a reverse of the classic sci-fi movie, the aliens brought back the real Cristian and in 2009 Guzman walked a grand total of 16 times in 555 plate appearances with a sub .700 OPS.
Little wonder the Nationals are considering using Ian Desmond as their starter if he shows even the slightest life this spring - and as of this writing he is. We don't have a ton of confidence in Desmond sustaining success this season, but we don't want Guzman if he can be avoided. .270-30-3-25-2. 250ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 370 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 79 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bonifacio wore several hats (and gloves) for the Fish in 2009, playing the utility role well and providing some cheap speed for his Fantasy owners. He figures to again be the Marlins' Swiss Army knife in 2010, and should also be a source of cheap stolen bases in most Fantasy drafts. .265-65-4-35-20 in 400 AB. |
Negatives/Downside:
After a scorching start, Bonifacio pulled the ripcord and never regained the kind of form he displayed in the first two weeks of the season. He enters 2010 without a starting job, and could lose playing time if outfielder Chris Coghlan returns to second base. .255-45-2-30-15 in 300 AB |
Analysis:
Bonifacio appears to be on the bubble with the Marlins this season; his utility role could quickly be reduced if either Logan Morrison or Gaby Sanchez make the club, and if Coghlan moves back to the infield. Until he earns a steady job, Bonifacio is best left to NL-only leagues. .260-50-3-33-15 in 325 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 376 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 76 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Big athletic shortstop with home run power and good speed. Batted .354 in triple-A last season and looks to be winning the job in Washington this spring. .280-75-10-65-30. 550ABs |
Negatives/Downside:
Prior to last season he looked for all the world like a .250/.260 hitter. We're suspicious that the leopard has exchanged his spots. With Guzman under contract we wouldn't expect Desmond to have a long leash. .260-20-3-15-15. 250ABs |
Analysis:
You'll want to pick up Ian Desmond. As of this writing, Desmond is knocking the cover off the ball in spring training, running up a storm and generally pushing Cristian Guzman aside.
This is not to say we love Desmond, the 24 year old middle infielder who sleep-walked his way through five minor league seasons before waking up last year. But if he does win the job, he could hit double-digit home runs and steal 25 bases.
Now, for those who have looked at Desmond's minor league number There are a couple of things to note. In the small sample at triple-A Syracuse last season, he hit down on the ball, made contact and as a result his average went up and his strikeouts went down, but his home runs ( he had hit 13 and 12 the previous two years) disappeared. We'd expect him to hit for some average or to hit for some power but not both. Eventually he will hit for Power, Desmond is a big kid and plenty of room to put on weight. .270-75-12-60-25. 525ABS |
| Recommended Draft Position: 407 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Hits: 72 0 |
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|
|
$ |
0.0 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
|
|
|
Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 66 0 |
|
|
|
$ |
0.0 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
|
|
|
Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 61 0 |
|
|
|
$ |
0.0 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
|
|
|
Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 69 0 |
|
|
|
$ |
0.0 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
|
|
|
Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 70 0 |
|
|
|
$ |
0.0 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
|
|
|
Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 76 0 |
|
|
|
$ |
0.0 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
|
|
|
Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 79 0 |
|
|
|
$ |
0.0 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
|
|
|
Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 76 0 |
|
|
|
$ |
0.0 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
|
