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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 108  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Jeter's incredible 2009, one of the best seasons of his career, quieted a lot of critics who claimed that he was start to deteriorate. Jeter proved that even into his mid-30s he is capable of posting huge numbers and still an elite option at SS. .330-105-15-65-25 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He isn't getting any younger, and, despite his great 2009, has reached the age when most players start to rapidly decline. 2009 was the last great season we will see from Jeter. His home run and stolen base totals are due for a decline. .305-90-10-55-15 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
35-year-olds don’t get better -- they have very good seasons. 2009 was a very good season for Jeter. Yes, he could have another very good season, but it is far more likely that his 2010 numbers more closely resemble his 2007 and 2008 seasons, which are still pretty darn good. If someone is willing to pay for his 2009 totals, be more more than happy to let them. .320-100-13-60-20 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 44 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 98 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bartlett came out of nowhere to become a major offensive force for the Rays in 2009. His .320 average, 14 homers, 90 runs, 160 hits, 30 steals, .490 SLG and .879 OPS were all career highs for the six-year vet -- and he did it in just 137 games. He projects to be the Rays' lead-off hitter in 2010, batting atop what should be a rather potent lineup. .300-95-15-70-35 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Players who come out of nowhere at age 29 often find their way back to nowhere in short order. Bartlett may have been way over his skis last season, and the fact that he batted just .294 in the second half -- with a steep drop in OPS -- should signal that he's due for a return to earth in 2010. .275-75-8-55-23 in 510 AB |
Analysis:
It's hard to imagine Bartlett batting .320 again, and his power surge may have been a mirage -- but his speed is the real deal. Don't pay for the prospect of another 15-homer campaign, but expecting 10 bombs and 25-30 steals is not out of line. .290-85-10-60-28 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 105 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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21 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 80 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Runs and steals. If he can work his way up the Rangers line-up as the season moves forward, he'll end up with elite totals in both categories. Being so young, it's tough to prognosticate what kind of improvement Andrus makes this season. .275-78-8-45-43 in 530 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He has yet to develop good power and, hitting at the bottom of the order, won't drive in too many runs. If he could add a few more points to his average, he could break the top 100 for the year. .260-70-5-35-35 in 480 AB |
Analysis:
21-year-old Elvis Andrus started to come into his own at the tail end of 2009. He was getting the ball in play more and taking advantage of it when he was on the base paths. Andrus will likely hit at the bottom of the order, so his main contribution will come in the form of his steals. .270-75-8-43-40 in 510 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 137 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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19 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 84 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
A poor man's Dustin Pedroia. Cabrera's actual value is going to be very dependent on the kind of year Grady Sizemore has and whether Michael Brantley is ready to hold a major league job. Although his resume doesn't immediately suggest his .308 average of 2009, he is only 24 and all of his secondary numbers (in particular his 85%+ contact rates) would certainly support that. He doesn't have the power that Pedroia brings for a middle infielder, but the same sort of speed. A .350-.360 on-base performer, Asrubal will need an improved context to reach the higher projections, but he's a quality hitter. .305-100-9-70-20SBs |
Negatives/Downside:
Given the construction of the team, Cabrera could be moved to the back of the batting order instead of the front and at a stroke this would make him 100 picks worse. His historical batting averages suggest that .280's is more likely than .300s despite the excellent contact rates. A .280 hitter with 80 runs is almost the definition of replaceable in most formats. .280-85-6-65-14. 525Abs |
Analysis:
One of the common ways for traditonal baseball people to deride a team's lineup and the game of Roto is to say "it's a rotisserie" line-up (or player). Experienced roto players find this a little amusing because the very lineups used to illustrate this (those terrible old and slow Orioles squads of years ago for example), are precisely the lineups that Roto players avoid - old, slow and injury prone are an anathema to fantasy players.
But if there is an area in which roto really doesn't appreciate real baseball adequately, it might be the cases of Asdrubal Cabrera and Yunel Escobar. No one is saying that this guys are more important to a team than a Grady Sizemore or Chipper Jones as the Indians and Braves found out last season (to their chagrin), but's almost certainly true that teams don't win championships without these kind of players at the tops of their orders. The Yankees stopped winning championships at the end of the 90's because of a lack of Derek Jeters, they started losing because Chuck Knoblauch wasn't getting on 40% of the time any more.
There's nothing in his production that makes Asdrubal "necessary" to a fantasy team - decent average and a few Stolen bases and if Size and Peralta bounce back and he is batting second, perhaps 90-100 runs. But for a real baseball team his skills are invaluable. He gets on base, makes good contact so is an aid to the running game. Hes' not going to be mistaken for Rickey Henderson, but you can't ignore him or he will steal over 80% as he did last season which makes the batters after him effective as well.
I wish our game reflected this value more, and it's not "intangible" the way announcers like to say, it leads directly and measurably to runs scored. Last I checked, the team that scores the most runs still wins. .285-95-8-65-20. 575ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 151 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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18 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 86 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Now hitting in an improved Orioles' line-up, Tejada should be able to score and drive in his fair share of runs. His average should remain i the .300+ range and he'll post double digit home runs. |
Negatives/Downside:
Take your pick. There's many reasons to believe that Tejada has started to slip in is offensive production. Many will point to his age as a contributing factor. Others will point to his switch to the American League, where he may not be able to keep up with the power pitching he'll see. |
Analysis:
If Miguel Tejada has retained any semblance of his quality 2009, he'll tally some RBI while helping your average. He'll be undervalued in a weak season for third basemen. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 142 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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16 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 79 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Only 28 in May, Peralta topped 80 runs for four straight seasons and 20 home runs for three of those prior to 2009. The Indians look to be healthier and, at least on the offensive side with the possible addition of Michael Brantley and the signing of Russell Branyan, slightly better armed. .280-85-23-95-43 600Abs |
Negatives/Downside:
For a couple of years Perlata belonged to a clump of shortstops that would all be drafted within a round or so of each other. Last year, nearly that entire group - Stephen Drew, J.J. Hardy and Miguel Tejada - all clumped more like cat litter. The old rule of thumb seems to apply here - when in doubt, draft players on good teams. .260-65-18-80-2. 550ABs |
Analysis:
To figure out 2010, we need to understand what happened in 2009 - will he be the guy from 2008 who knocked 23 home runs and scored 104 runs or last season's version with 11 home runs, and 57 runs in just 23 fewer at-bats?
In 2009 Perlata hit over 50% ground balls, driving his flyball percentage from 36.2% down to 30.6% - so fewer fly balls, and he turned fewer of those into home runs, only 7.9% of his flyballs turned into home runs, as opposed to 13.1% the previous campaign. That, in a couple of easy steps, is how you get to 11 home runs from 23, but is it likely to continue? No, Peralta is only 28 in May and has accumulated 3101 major league at-bats. His historical record has nothing to suggest (once you allow for him reaching the major leagues at age 21) that would suggest that this will continue. All these 2009 rates look like one time deals.
So much for home runs, how about those runs? Normally when we see such a drastic drop in runs we expect the player has moved from a run-scoring spot in the order to somewhere further back. But in this case Peralta had approximately the same mix of at-bats mainly in the 4th and 5th slots. Part of it is that Peralta wasn't getting on-base (all those ground balls again), posting a dreadful .316 OBP. He walked at the same rates (a bit better actually), it was all batting average and that was all ground balls. But that only accounts for part of it. The main reason was the terrible context, partially through injuries and partially because the team was so poorly put together there was nothing behind Peralta to drive him in. Thus his 89 RBI from 2008 became a reasonable 83 but his runs dropped from 103 to an awful 57. The big problem here is that Peralta is likely to stay behind the Tribe's small stock of real hitters yet again, so whereas we have hope on the home runs totals, there is less hope on the runs front.
One ray of hope for Peralta are the continuing rumours he will be swapped, but for now he sure looks like .270-70-20-85-2. 575ABs which would be a real bargain considering where he is being drafted. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 214 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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13 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 91 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Now hitting atop the Angels' line-up, Aybar has the opportunity to improve on his run and stolen base totals. |
Negatives/Downside:
Aybar lacks power and could possibly regress under the added pressure that has been bestowed upon him. |
Analysis:
If you miss out on the upper tier of shortstops, Erick Aybar may be a nice option later in the draft. Now hitting at the top of the Angels line-up, Aybar will have the chance to be a plus performer in both average and runs. If he can improve his 14 steals to 20+, he'll be a top-10 shortstop in 2010. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 194 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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13 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 89 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Scuatro is coming off a fantastic 2009 season in Toronto, and moves into the friendly confines of Fenway Park, and into a strong Red Sox line-up that will provide him with plenty of run scoring and RBI opportunities. 2010 should be another great season for Scutaro. |
Negatives/Downside:
Don't be fooled by Scutaro's 2009 season. He isn't that good. Plus he produced the career high filled statline, .282-100-12-60-14, batting out of the leadoff spot for the Blue Jays, but will hit at the bottom of the order in Boston. In 2010, we will go back to seeing the Marco Scutaro we got to know in his eight seasons before his big 2009. |
Analysis:
It will be interesting to see how Scutaro’s move to Boston effects his numbers. Scutaro produced his solid 2009 numbers hitting leadoff for the Blue Jays, but will hit at the bottom of the order in 2010 with the Red Sox. Comparing Scutaro’s 2009 season to his 2010 season will be an interesting analysis on the importance of where a player bats in the batting order vs. the overall quality of the lineup he bats in. .270-85-10-60-10 in 575 at bats |
| Recommended Draft Position: 219 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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12 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 76 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Potential. If Wood can harness some if his ability, he's a threat to hit around .285 and swat 20 HR. |
Negatives/Downside:
He's never done anything at the big league level. |
Analysis:
Wood is full of potential and now, finally, gets a chance to play every day in LA. In the minors Wood has been an all-star but has faltered in every opportunity in the big league. If he can translate some of his minor league success into major league league success, he'll be a good value |
| Recommended Draft Position: 272 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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7 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 71 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Sneaky speed and excellent baserunning skills. Decent on-base skills and good minor league contact rates. .275-75-10-65-25. 550ABs |
Negatives/Downside:
Major league strikeout rates much higher than minor league numbers. He adjusted well after the first month of 2009, but it remains a question whether he can hit major league pitchers. Little power and questionable average along with a weak context hitting near the bottom of the Oakland lineup. .255-50-5-45-10. 425ABs |
Analysis:
Because his number in 2008 and 2009 are split between different teams on different levels, a lot of people aren't aware that Pennington stole 31 bases in 115 games in 2008 and then 34 between triple-A and The Show last year. That's too bad because the former Aggie is a terrific baserunner if not a prototypical burner. He can also play all over the field and play well.
What is less good is that people may take away from Pennington's four home runs that he has some kind of pop in his bat and that, as of now, is unlikely to be the case. He's a smallish player and there are no secondary numbers to back up an immediate hope for additional dingers. He's probably not a tremendous on-base player, but he gets on base better than league average and should score runs if the context in Oakland allows.
Pennington loses his multi-position eligibility in most leagues, which hurts his value. But he is still usable in MI leagues and a low end SS in larger formats due to his speed. .275-65-7-50-25. 475ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 276 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 110 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Punto is in the game for his defense, which is no help in fantasy leagues. He can steal a few bases though.
20 SB with 500AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Everything but his speed.
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Analysis:
If your drafting Punto your either in a very deep league or very desperate for a few SB. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 411 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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5 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 77 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Defense. But that doesn't really matter in fantasy. |
Negatives/Downside:
Every category. |
Analysis:
Make a reminder to stay away from defensive specialist Jack Wilson, a hitter so bad, the lowly Pirates didn't want him. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 372 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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3 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 81 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bloomquist's entire value is wrapped up entirely in his speed. He's a threat for 30 SB with some consistent playing time. |
Negatives/Downside:
Everything else. |
Analysis:
Bloomquist can't even start for the lowly Royals, stay away. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 375 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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3 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 71 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Played pretty well after getting traded to Boston at the deadline last season, but his .284 batting average is the only thing that would be fantasy friendly |
Negatives/Downside:
Gonzalez won't help in power, and hitting at the bottom of the line-up will limit his amount of runs scored. |
Analysis:
Gonzalez will hit at the bottom of the Blue Jays line-up, that should be all you need to know. Only in the deepest of leagues should you consider Gonzalez. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 371 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 126 1 |
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Positives/Upside:
Showed good skills growth throughout minor league career, has double digit HR and SB potential. Dual position eligibility at 2B/SS.
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Negatives/Downside:
For starters, he's really not that good... there's a reason he plays for the Royals. He'll start the year on the bench and is unlikely to usurp the role. |
Analysis:
Aviles basically played himself out of a job last season and will start the year behind the terrible Yuniesky Betancourt. That should say it all. Stay away. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 410 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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2 |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 87 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Hardy has always been able to crush the ball and a change of scenery maybe just be what the doctor ordered. Hardy should be able to knock and score some runs in a formidable Twins line-up. |
Negatives/Downside:
Hardy can be an average killer if he's off his game and his lack of speed won't have him drawing comparisons to Lloyd Mosbey any time soon. |
Analysis:
Hardy had a miserable season in 2009 and was actually sent to the minors for a period of time. I see 2010 as a rebound season for Hardy, as he probably will hit second in the Twins line-up and put up numbers like .260-90-22-76-2. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 248 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 83 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
None really. I suppose he could improve on his 12 SB, but even then that would be all of his value. |
Negatives/Downside:
Basically everything. As a defensive specialist, he really brings nothing to your fantasy team. |
Analysis:
Don't confuse Cesar Izturis with Maicer Izturis -- it would be the worst case of mistaken identity since Andy Dufresne. Izturis doesn't do one thing overly well, keep your distance. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 506 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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1 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 90 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Not much, but it does look like he'll get everyday at-bat, for what that's worth. |
Negatives/Downside:
His combination of no power and low average make for a sure-fire stay away in 2010. |
Analysis:
The light-hitting Everett is a defensive specialist who provides little to no offensive skills. Stay away. |
| Recommended Draft Position: 650 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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