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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 229  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Pujols will be amongst the league leaders in average, runs, homeruns, and RBI. In fact, he finished in the top three in the National League in each of those four categories in 2009. His ability to post double digit steals makes him that much more valuable. With Matt Holliday in the line-up for a full season in 2010, Pujols could even have a career year. .335-120-45-130-15 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The Cards' line-up is good, but not great, which will prevent his RBI and run totals from truly shooting through the roof. I guess he could steal more bases. .300-100-35-110-5 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
In a draft, it is advised to take Pujols with the first pick. An argument can be made for going with Hanley Ramirez due to position scarcity, but Pujols is the safer pick and will outproduce Ramirez. In an auction, be willing to pay face value for him. As long as you don't significantly overpay, he will be worth every dollar you spend. In any league, he is the type of guy you build your team around. .320-115-40-120-10 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 1 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 195 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
It was another banner season for Ramirez in 2009, as the Marlins shortstop captured the National league batting crown with a mark of .342. If that weren't enough, the 26-year-old plated a career-high 106 runs, while scoring over 100 runs and stealing at least 27 bases for the fourth consecutive season. The Marlins figure to be in the think of things again this season, and Hanley should once again be mashing from the No. 3 hole in the lineup. Ramirez is one of the game's top fantasy players, and should be drafted in the top three in every league format. .345-125-35-115-35 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The ribbies may be up, but Ramirez's stolen base total has decreased each of the past three seasons, and it looks very doubtful that he'll ever make it back to the 50-steal mark again. Hanley's 24 dingers last year was also his worst showing in three seasons, and his 101 runs the lowest total in his four-year career. .310-95-25-95-25 in 575 AB |
Analysis:
Don't look for elite stolen base totals, but Ramirez remains one of fantasy baseball's best all-around players. You cannot go wrong in grabbing Hanley with the No.2 pick (after Albert Pujols) in just about any draft. .320-110-30-105-25 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 2 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 227 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
A-Rod is healthy and ready to have a monster 2010. He finished 2009 off strong, proving that the struggles he had after returning in May from a hip injury were nothing more than rust. Batting in the heart of the Yankees line-up will offer Rodriguez ample opportunities to drive in and score runs. Rodriguez will be an elite option for runs, HR, and RBI, and will post a high enough average and steal enough bases to help your team as well. .300-115-40-125-20 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Although always good, Rodriguez's numbers have been inconsistent through the years. For example, his 54 homeruns in 2007 were sandwiched between years of hitting 35 homeruns in both 2006 and 2008. His batting average also tends to fluctuate between good and great. Also, while A-Rod is fully recovered from his 2009 hip injury, at 34-years old he qualifies as a higher injury risk than the other elite fantasy options. .280-100-30-110-15 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
Rodriguez is a surefire first round pick in draft leagues and someone to build your offense around in auction leagues. The fact that he has the potential to be the most productive offensive player in 2010 justifies taking him with the third overall pick, but grabbing him with the fourth or fifth pick should he slip is a lot safer. Be willing to pay market value for Rodriguez, but don't go overboard. .290-105-35-120-20 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 3 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 198 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Despite worries over the hip, Chase punched in and churned out a vintage Utley season. A poor September took the shine off his batting average, but there's nothing here to suggest that he will be anything other than what he has been - the best fantasy second baseman in baseball, playing for a good team and in a good park. .305-100-30-110-18 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Utley is age 31 coming off a significant injury. He did fade significantly in September (batting .198 with correspondingly poor secondary numbers). He's unlikely to be perfect again in stolen bases. The addition of Placido Polanco probably batting ahead of Utley (with Shane Victorino moving back in the order) potentially is a weaker table-setter. But it's hard to be too pessimistic here. .285-95-28-90-13 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Utley set aside fears about his hip by producing another first-round level season and along with it a career high in stolen bases. Owners shouldn't worry about his batting average drop. Although it would be foolish to expect a return to the .332 of 2007, most of his drop off in 2009 was due to a .198 September when he was playing through a severely bruised foot from a foul ball. Likewise, you shouldn't expect a perfect 23 for 23 in stolen bases.
Defensive metrics should generally be taken with a grain of salt, but stats like UZR and other range metrics can be used as an indicator of diminished speed. Utley's range factors were all down (UZR 10.8 down from a career high of 20.2 in 2008) but essentially equivalent to his 2006 numbers (9.3 UZR), so there doesn't appear to be any cause for concern going forward.
The main question with Utley is whether to take him before or after the top two outfielders (Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp). We say bid with confidence. .295-100-30-110-15 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 4 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 211 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Last season we said of Braun that he would get 20 steals -- "yeah, seriously" -- and 20 steals he got. Braun stole 8 in the final month of the season and looks to have built on the speed portion of his game. The days where Braun's strikeout rate was worrisome (112 in 451ABs in 2007) are long gone, and his walk rate has improved each season. Braun put the ball on the ground more than usual last season (GB/FB 1.36 vs. 0.88 in 2008) so we can expect Braun to hit a few more home runs this season as he returns to his normal flyball ratios. .325-115-38-120-20 in 650AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There aren't many negatives here. Milwaukee has replaced Felipe Lopez at the top of the order, perhaps with Carlos Gomez or Alcides Escobar, which means fewer baserunners. His BABIP was .351, so one might expect some regression there, but even in this case, batters often maintain .330+ in-play results from season-to-season. He only walked intentionally once in 2009, so perhaps he will get more intentional passes and lose RBI chances? .290-95-33-100-15 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Ryan Braun enters 2010 as our top outfielder in fantasy. If you felt the need to sacrifice a handful of home runs and a bit of batting average for extra steals, you could be excused for selecting Matt Kemp first, but Braun's 8-steal final month quashed any fear that he would not contribute in all categories. He's durable and consistent -- even in his "bad" July, he collected five home runs, 13 RBI and 18 runs. Select with confidence. .320-110-35-115-18 in 635 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 5 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Kemp is only 25 years old and has yet to enter into the prime of his career. His HR% has gone up each year as has his walk rates and HR/FB%. His strikeout rate is high, but improved slightly last season to 22.9% and he's established himself as a 75% plus base-stealer. If Kemp moves into the heart of the lineup, his countable numbers can only go up (see negatives here). .315-105-33-95-35 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
For whatever reason, Kemp has performed better in the top and bottom third of the batting order (.313 and .333 respectively) as opposed to four through six (.256), and the exact lineup has yet to be set for the Dodgers. Because of the uncertainties surrounding Manny Ramirez, the inconsistency of Russell Martin and the age of Casey Blake, there way be a limit as to what support he will be given. .295-90-25-85-25 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Context questions and Ryan Braun's fine finish in 2009 (.357 with eight steals from Sept. on) are the only thing that keep Matt Kemp out of the number one outfielder slot for 2010. At age 25 and coming off a 26/34 season, even more can be expected from the Dodger center-fielder. There's really no wrong choice between the two best fantasy outfielders in the game -- do you prefer a projected 35 home runs and 18 stolen bases? Or projected 30 and 30? Although Miller Park enjoys a reputation as a hitter's park, it's BPF rates as comparable to Chavez Ravine (which has always been a reasonable park for home runs). Both players are very durable, with neither missing significant amounts of time in their careers.
Kemp's 2009 numbers of 101 RBI and 97 runs came mainly out of the bottom third of the order, holding forth the promise that if he is moved up in the order better countables could follow. Speed, power and reliability for a probable contender is a formula for fantasy success. .305-100-30-100-30 in 600 AB
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| Recommended Draft Position: 6 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 163 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Prince has AVERAGED 40 dingers per season, and he's AVERAGED 111 RBI. Yet the man is only 26 years old in May. He's supposed to get better than this. The loss of Felipe Lopez and Mike Cameron might make some difference, but it's unlikely to be significant. The addition of Carlos Gomez and a full-time Alcides Escobar add a speed element to the batting order and might help Prince see even more pitches. .295-105-50-145-3 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If Ryan Braun regresses off his fine season and Gomez and Escobar are unable to step into full-time roles, the context for Fielder could be seriously affected. Plus, although he is still young, we expect some regression off of good seasons (as we saw with Fielder going from his 50 home run 2007 to his 34 home run 2008). But let's be clear, there are no gray skies here, just less blue. .280-85-35-100-0 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Prince Fielder tied Ryan Howard for the most RBI in baseball for 2009. Along with Howard, he is the best candidate for a 50 home run season in baseball, but unlike Howard we don't worry about a .250-type batting average in a poor season. One of the things that we like about Prince is the expansion of his on-base game. Prince saw 106 more pitches in 2009 than 2008 (in 3 more games played) which is the equivalent of burning an entire start for an opposing pitcher. And if you don't think this counts, ask a team like the Phillies if they'd have liked to have to go to the bullpen for all those extra pitches. .290-100-45-135-3 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 7 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 135 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Teixeira really enjoyed his first season in pinstripes, and there is no reason to think he won’t enjoy his second. Teixeira's 2009 numbers with the Yankees were nearly identical to the numbers he put up in 2008 with the Braves and Angels, and I expect more of the same in 2010. He is a top notch option for runs, homeruns, and RBI, and always seem to post an average right around .300. As with all the Yankees' starters, batting in the Yanks' formidable line-up and playing at the new Yankee stadium will help him post an impressive stat line. .310-110-40-130-5 in 610 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
What seperates Teixeira from the very elite is his inability to steal bases. He is likely to be the first player off the board who will not post double digit steals. There really isn't anything else negative to say about Teixeira. .290-95-30-110-0 in 580 AB |
Analysis:
Teixeira is one of the safest picks you can make. His consistency makes him a valuable fantasy commodity. I would rather have the fourth or fifth pick in a draft so I can grab Braun or Utley, because the next four or five picks seem interchangeable depending on preference. In auctions, he is a great guy to target, because he won't demand the same attention as some of the other elite options. You are far more likely to get Teixeira at a discounted price than you are to pull in someone like A-Rod or Hanley Ramirez at less than face value. .300-100-35-120-3 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 8 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 142 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Longoria became one of the game's best hot corner men in 2009, and at age 24 his best years almost certainly still lie ahead. Longo is a polished hitter who has power to all fields, and certainly has the tools to hit .300 in the bigs. He will once again bat third in what projects to be one of baseball's better lineups, and more big numbers should be in store for 2010 -- and well beyond. .290-110-40-125-10 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Longoria's on-base skills are good, not great -- and being more selective at the plate might help him to cut down on the 140 strikeouts he racked up in 2009. Like most young players, Longo may be prone to extended slumps. .275-95-30-110-5 in 580 AB |
Analysis:
If you play in a dynasty league, look no further for your third baseman than Number 3. In seasonal leagues, he's still a player to build the rest of your team around. .285-105-35-120-10 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 9 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 144 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cabrera is a truly elite player who can hep you dominate four different categories. Miggy will provide some gaudy numbers in in R, RBI and HR, but he can really help you tyrannize batting average. .325-100-38-120-3 in 615 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Speed. Cabrera runs more like Cecil Fielder than Ricky Henderson, so it's very unlikely he'll ever reach double digit steals. .300-90-30-100-0 in 580 AB |
Analysis:
Cabrera recommitted himself to baseball in the off season and looks to make a huge impact in 2009. Miggy is about as consistent as you can get. Pencil him in for a .315+ average, along with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI & R. If the rumors about his improved conditioning are true, he may even chip in a few steals. There aren't many safer picks on the board than Cabrera, so draft him and reap the rewards all season long. .315-95-35-110-3 in 605 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 10 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 191 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Howard is one of the most consistent and best power hitters in all of baseball. Since becoming a full-time player, he has missed 100 runs once (94, in 2007) and has driven in 136 or more each season. After amassing 58 home runs in 2006, Howard has topped 45 each year since. Owners were even rewarded with 8 stolen bases last season. Plug in Ryan Howard and you're already ahead in the power categories. .280-105-50-145-5 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There is no reason to think Howard's production will drop off significantly. His BB/K ratio has diminished solely due to his intentional walks decreasing from a high of 37 in 2006 to only 8 in 2009. His BABIP rates are higher than league average, but last year's .325 was lower than his career mark of .327, and in any case, hitters can maintain "abnormal" BABIP season after season. As always with Howard, the question is whether you get the .279 version of 2009, or the .251 version of 2008. In either case, Howard's batting average is significantly worse that that of the other prime first base candidates and on the lower end would be a negative in even deeper leagues. .250-90-40-115-3 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
The possibility that Howard bats .250 keeps us from ranking Howard even higher. Howard's eight steals last season raise the possibility that he could add a small speed component to his arsenal, which would make him even more valuable that old "player-and-a-half" he already is for countable totals. As always, you'll want to plan ahead to insure your batting average in case of the worst case scenario, but Howard is one of the most consistent power hitters in all of baseball. .270-95-45-135-5 in 575 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 11 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 147 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The AL batting champ 3 of the last 4 years and will give you a definitive advantage in that category. He throws in some quality numbers in HR, RBI and runs as well, making him, hands down, the best catching option on the board. .345-100-30-100-5 in 550 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Mauer may have trouble replicating his 2009 stat line, which was one of the best for catcher in the history of baseball. He won't contribute much in the speed department and, being a catcher, will play fewer games than the rest of the top-25 players. .310-90-20-90-3 in 490 AB |
Analysis:
Mauer missed the first month of the 2009 season due to a back injury and still hit a remarkable .365-94-28-96. If your fantasy team wants to have the #1 catcher, this is your man, but you'd better be looking to draft him late in the first or early in the second round or he will be gone. The problem is that there is no value in selecting him that high. He will clearly be the best catcher, but he will not live up to the draft spot where you take him. .330-95-25-95-3 in 530 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 13 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 204 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Everything is positive when it comes to Lincecum. If he can avoid injury, he'll finish the year among the league leaders in Wins, ERA, Strikeouts and WHIP. 18-0-2.60-1.05-260 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Maybe he takes the foot off the pedal now that he's been paid. His only downside seems to be exclusively speculative. 13-0-2.90-1.15-240 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Lincecum will be the first pitcher to come off the board come draft day. While I don't normally recommend pitchers this high, you'll be off to a huge head start in pitching by adding Lincecum. Tiny Tim will help you dominate across every pitching category (expect saves of course) and should be a threat to the NL triple crown. 15-0-2.70-1.10-255 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 12 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 99 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Crawford's game is speed, speed and more speed, and the 28-year-old set a new career standard by swiping 60 bags last season. This wasn't exactly rarefied air for CC, though, as he has posted 50 or more steals five times in his six full big league seasons. .305-105-15-80-70 in 610 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
Crawford's on-base skills are rather pedestrian, and he strikes out a lot for a speed merchant. His stolen base success rate dropped off rather dramatically as the season went on last year, raising concerns that he may have been tiring. If his hamstrings act up... .290-90-10-65-50 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
After suffering through an injury-riddled 2008 season, Crawford bounced back nicely last year, whacking 15 homers and batting .305. He's likely to be playing for a big free agent deal this year, and some monster numbers could be in store. .300-100-15-75-65 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 14 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 355 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Positive? It's no longer 2009.
Okay, okay David Wright has more going for him in 2010 than that. First is that unless the Mets are hiding something, there's nothing wrong with him. It's not the park, as he hit five home runs at home and five on the road (for the record, much of Citi-fields "problems" seem to be the injuries and failure of the Mets -- the Mets ranked higher in runs in Flushing than on the road). It's not the strikeouts (way up in 2009) because he was striking out more in May and June while he was batting .378 and .365 than he did later on... well, September he fell apart completely. LD%? GB/FB? Nope, all OK. Other than his lefty/righty splits, this looks like a real fluke. 16.7% hr/fb% in 2008 turns into 6.9% in 2009. Game set and match.
Wright is 27 and still the player he was prior to last season. Because of this, and because the Mets may be playing with a healthier line-up, we could expect a bounce back, particularly in the countables. Citi-field may suppress a few home runs (even after the center field wall is lowered to 8' from 16') but a first-round type performance seems possible. .315-100-25-110-28 in 600 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's stopped hitting righties. It's a real problem, and unless he figures it out, you can't be paying the price for him. To make a long story short, if he goes for second-round prices and earns first-round then this would be nice, but it's not going to put you on the podium. But if he costs you the same price and earns like a tenth-rounder, that will surely take you off the podium. .290-85-10-85-23 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
David Wright single-handedly sunk many a fantasy owner's hopes last season. The consensus top third baseman and frequent #3 overall selection churned out the numbers we have come to expect... from Randy Winn. Wright's numbers vs. righties have declined every season since 2006:
year BA/OBP/SLG L-R BB/K ...
2006 .321/.380/.549 0.93-0.46 ...
2007 .311/.404/.505 1.29-0.71 ...
2008 .275/.351/.484 1.42-0.62 ...
2009 .277/.361/.393 1.58-0.43 ...
This is past being a trend. Could the 27-year old star turn this around? You bet he could and I would like it to be on my dime... As long as it is only a dime. .300-90-20-90-25 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 15 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 128 1 |
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Positives/Upside:
Very few players have Kinsler's multi-category potential. Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley are in a class of their own at second base, blending a perfect balance of speed and power into their games. Kinsler is one of baseball's only players that will challenge 30 HR and 30 SB. On top of that, he'll be an elite source of runs and contribute an above average RBI total. Kinsler will likely be a top-15 pick, and you can have a huge advantage at the position with him in your line-up. .280-105-30-90-30 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Painfully low batting average in 2009 (.253) will need to increase for Kinsler to be a truly elite fantasy contributor. Last year's 144 games was a career high, as he has historically been an injury risk. .255-85-15-75-15 in 520 AB
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Analysis:
Kinsler is the second best player at his position, with the ability to out-produce Chase Utley. If Kinsler can stay healthy all year, he could end up as the premier second baseman heading into 2011. He'll go a round later and about $7-10 cheaper in drafts, making him a better value. .270-100-25-85-25 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 16 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 175 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Everything. Tulowitzki will out-perform the average in all five offensive categories. He is one of a few elite shortstops, and having him man your six-hole will give you a massive advantage over other teams at the position. On top of that, the Tool is a candidate for an unworldly 35 HR/25 SB season. He'll be an excellent pick for anyone trying to build a balanced team from the get-go. .300-105-35-105-25 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
There's always the possibility that Tulowitzki reverts back to his 2008 form if he succumbs to injuries, but I'll chalk that year up to a sophomore slump. .280-90-20-85-10 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
Depth is limited at shortstop, and it has pushed the value for the polished Polack threw the roof. Although he may come at cost, Tulowitzki is one of the few five-category contributors in all of baseball. He has a rare combination of speed, power, and position scarcity that will make him an excellent choice for your team. .295-100-30-95-15 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 17 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 153 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Upton is an elite outfielder for good reason. He'll fill up all five categories and create a huge disparity between him and almost every other outfielder. .300-110-35-115-30 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The possibility for the dreaded sophomore slump. .280-90-25-95-15 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
Justin Upton is truly an elite talent. He's one of baseball's few players that fills up all five categories on a consistent basis. The former number-one pick turned in an excellent season that had him amass 26 HR, 86 RBI, and 84 R, all while hitting .300 and swiping an impressive 20 bags. We can only assume that the 22 year-old will only improve on those stats this season. He's a top-five outfielder and will come off draft boards in the first two rounds. If you want him on your roster, you'll have to pay the price, but he should be worth it. .290-100-30-105-25 in 560 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 18 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 161 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
After being dealt to the Cardinals last year, Holliday hit .353-42-13-55 in just 63 games. Hitting behind Pujols for a full season bodes well for his 2010 fortunes. He will certainly see more than his share of RBI opportunities. .320-110-25-120-15 in 590 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While Holliday was fantastic last year with the Cards, a return to his 2007 totals in Colorado are highly unlikely. As good as Holliday is, his total of 36 homeruns in 2007 was aided by the thin Colorado air. Another concern is the drop in stolen bases he saw in 2009. Last year, Holliday stole just 14 bases, after totaling 28 in 2008. What's worse is that he stole just two of those 12 bases after his move to St. Louis. .300-100-20-100-5 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Holliday could be in line for a big season -- the type you'd call a career year, if it wasn't for his monster 2007 in Colorado. He is someone you can safely target on draft/auction day, but don't expect a return to more than 10-15 stolen bases. .315-105-25-115-10 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 19 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 103 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ellsbury led the majors with 70 steals in 2009 and is a good bet to do so again in 2010. Batting leadoff for the Red Sox all but gaurantees a ton of runs. A batting average right around the .300 mark seems like a strong bet, and Ellsbury's 60 RBI in 2009 is more than you'll get from most lead-off hitters. Now 26, there is a chance that Ellsbury will develop his power some in the coming years and consistently post double digit home run totals. .300-100-10-60-70 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Obviously 70 stolen bases is extremely valuable from a fantasy perspective, but Ellsbury will help you less in home runs and RBI than any other hitter who commands as much attention as he will. Furthermore, the possibility exists that Ellsbury's 70 steals in 2009 are the most we'll ever see from him. .285-85-3-50-50 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Ellsbury will single-handedly keep you at the top of the heap in stolen bases. However, don't expect 70 steals again. If you do choose to acquire Ellsbury, be sure you supplement him with a couple of lower end power options later in your draft or auction. .295-90-5-55-65 in 610 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 20 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
35 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 206 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Halladay moves from the rebuilding Blue Jays to the two-time World Series champion Phillies and from facing the DH to facing the pitcher. Halladay has been a terrific source of strikeouts the past two seasons as well as wins and if anything he is in a better position to contribute there. Much has been said about the benefits of strike-out type starters moving from the AL to the NL, which should more than cancel out any negative effects of moving to such a hitter friendly environment. In addition, Halladay replaces such unfriendly destinations as Fenway and Yankee Stadium with more comfortable division match-ups in Florida and Citi-field. 20-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Halladay turns 33 in May and has a history of arm problems (albeit not recently). That combined with his heavy workload over the past four seasons (232+IP per season) should give one some caution. The other "issue" with Halladay is whether he will be the 5.5 K/9 pitcher of 2006 and 2007 or the 7.5+ pitcher of the last two seasons. The difference being a whopping 60 strikeouts over 230 IP. There's no real reason to think that facing the pitcher he would fall back, but it would not be at all a surprise were he to only put in 200-210 innings in which case his strikeout total might be correspondingly lower. 15-0-3.40-1.20-165 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
It's numerically true that players in the "old days" didn't stay with a single team their entire career much more than they do now, but it certainly feels that way when a player like Halladay moves on. The one-time face of the Blue Jays franchise is now a Philly, with a club coming off two straight World Series appearances. If there's any justice in the world, the Phillies will make it three years in a row and give Doc a shot at the title. The world being what it is, the Jays will beat the Astros this season.
Halladay has been so good over the past two seasons that even with the workload (too much of it) and age on his arm, it's hard not to give him a thumbs up going forward. Much of the bump we would give him for facing the pitcher is given back for the park and his age, but that's still awfully good. We expect him to eat innings, which will give his owners strikeouts and wins. 18-0-3.10-1.15-190 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 21 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
35 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Gonzalez is a classic power-hitting first baseman. He'll offer elite home run totals, all the while giving you above average RBI and runs. He has a good average for a power guy (.277 in 2009), so he won't hurt you there. If he can get moved to a contender at some point this season, he should find himself among the second-half RBI leaders. He's an excellent candidate to trade for around mid-June. .285-100-45-110-0 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Don't expect any SB. .275-90-35-100-0 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
Gonzalez is having problems seeing hittable pitches with no protection in the line-up. Instead of drafting the slugger, you may be wise to wait until the trade deadline and deal for him as he'll likely be moved to a contender. Considering the depth at first base, he's over-valued right now. There are similar options for a better value later on (vets Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman or youngster Billy Butler). .280-95-40-105-0 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 25 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
34 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 188 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Upside? He's healthy and runs.
OK, there's a bit more to say about it than this. After his first full season when Reyes learned to take a pitch he has been one of the most consistent players in baseball. His strikeout rates, walk rates and contact rates have been as close to statistically equal as you can get. The supporting cast has changed somewhat, but the players immediately after Reyes remain strong. The current plan is for Reyes to bat third until Carlos Beltran is ready to return and this gives the fantasy player a nice sense of security -- even if Reyes doesn't run, or runs at a reduced level, for the time being we can expect more RBI and perhaps a dash more power form Reyes to go along his consistent .280-.300 batting average. With Jason Bay batting close behind, Reyes should have chances to run even from the third position. They won't take the bat out of Bay's hands for the purpose, but he sees so many pitches that a runner like Reyes should have ample opportunities. .300-110-20-80-45 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Downside? He's not healthy and doesn't run.
Hamstring injuries, I do not like them, Sam-I-Am. It is hard to feel confident about Reyes' prospects for playing 150+ games as he did the four years prior to last season. He has a history of leg problems, and hamstrings are notorious for recurring, particularly in players of Reyes' physical type (large, well-muscled legs). Pundit predictions as of this writing range from 300 AB all the way to 684 and if you were to ask Bill James (who predicts 684), I am sure he wouldn't be the least surprised if Reyes did have continuing problems. Early reports have Reyes running normally in short sprints. I am sure, dear reader, that you know how to evaluate statements coming from early spring. The "prudent" position would to assume the Mets would baby their superstar shortstop and remove him at least partially from the running game, even if he is able to play significant games. .280-85-10-60-25 in 530 AB |
Analysis:
On the face of it, the risks surrounding Jose Reyes seem to overwhelm his potential value to a fantasy owner. After all, so much of his value is tied to the stolen bases generated by those knotted up legs, right? Well, yes and no. Let's look at the risk.
Stolen bases don't equate well with runs scored, on-base percentage and batting position do. Carl Crawford has stolen over 50 bases five times, yet scored 100 runs only twice in his fine career (the years when he was predominantly a lead-off man). When Ian Kinsler scored 101 runs with an OBP of .327, it was the just third time in the past decade that any player with an OBP of less than .330 scored 100. Jose Reyes isn't an on-base machine by any means, but he'll be batting third behind quality batters and then shift to lead-off when Beltran arrives. He's had had one of the most consistent walk rates amongst big leaguers since he "got it" in 2006. He'll get his runs even if he doesn't steal.
And if he spends a significant stretch in the three hole, as it seems likely with Beltran missing because of a controversial knee surgery, he could add-on some to his RBI totals. So what does Reyes look like in case he can't run? 100+ runs, 70-80 RBI, maybe 20 steals? (If those numbers look familiar, they should because that's what the top shortstops are looking at unless their name is Hanley, Troy or Rollins... and it's not far off Rollins even if Reyes doesn't run.
Price is everything here. If Reyes doesn't run he'll earn about as much as Derek Jeter (except in BA) and if he does run he instantly becomes lottery. So if Reyes' price tag drops, it seems like an excellent opportunity. We think he'll run some and out-earn every shortstop except Hanley .290-100-15-75-35 in 580 ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 22 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
34 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 188 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
For all the fantasy owners that have been burned by Rollins over the past two seasons, he remains one of the best Roto shortstops in the game. 20 home runs, 100 runs, 30 steals? I think you can find a use for that in everything but your three team, mixed, batting average-only league. Although it seems like Rollins has been around forever, and he does have over 1400 major league games, he's still just 31, playing for a powerful team and in a good ballpark. His lower run totals were almost entirely a product of his lower batting average (itself a factor of not hitting lefties, something he has had no real problem with in the past). There's no reason to think he won't hit .270 or more and score 100+ runs in this offense. .290-115-23-80-40 in 690 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Although you can excuse his 2008 campaign on the undisclosed leg problems, the overall arc of his career looks pretty clear with a peak in the 2006 and 2007 season and now a gentle or not gentle decline into usefulness. At this age, and with no real deterioration on the interior numbers, you wouldn't project more decline, but a return to the halcyon days seems improbable. .270-90-10-60-25 in 575 AB |
Analysis:
In retrospect it seems obvious that the MVP-caliber years of 2006 and 2007 were Rollins' career peak. He's still a dangerous power hitter and a definite threat to steal. But his lack of batting average combined with average on-base skills probably put the days of 130 runs out of reach.
Rollins is still a very usable fantasy player of course -- you just don't want to pay as if he were 26 and with the peak ahead, instead of 31 with the peak behind. He remains a linchpin shortstop in a great offense. I expect a rebound on his hitting rates vs. lefties and all his other numbers are are, once you remove the injury-plagued 2008, consistent with everything before them. He put the ball in the air more last season which probably explains both the low average and the 20 homes runs. Expect that all to move back to his normal numbers in 2010. .275-110-18-75-35 in 675 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 23 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
34 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 169 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Over 162 games Votto should make an impact in average, HR, RBI and runs. None of those totals will be elite numbers, but well above average. Votto's four category production makes him very valuable. .305-95-35-105-10 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He's not a speed demon, but he could grab 6 bases or so. Health is the biggest concern with Votto. From bouts of depression to the bumps and bruises of the season, a more realistic game total would be around 140. .290-85-25-90-3 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Votto showed us last season why he's on the cusp of being among the elite at his position. Joey V posted a .322-82-25-84-4 line, in 131 games last season. Over a full 162, he can do some damage. He could be the perfect target if you miss out on the elite first baseman taken over the first fifteen picks. .300-90-30-95-5 in 550 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 26 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
34 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 114 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The King will chip in elite totals in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and wins. There are very few pitchers who deliver the fantasy impact of Felix Hernandez. 20-0-2.70-1.15-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Conditioning. Hernandez looks like he's on some sort of Mo Vaughn/David Wells diet. It didn't affect his performance last year, but it's always a concern. 15-0-3.10-1.25-190 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Hernandez had a dominant 2009. If it weren't for the God-like efforts of Zack Greinke, he would have been a unanimous choice for the Cy Young. The scary part? He's only 23, and the best is yet to come. Place 'The King' at the top of your AL draft boards -- yes, even ahead of Greinke. 18-0-2.90-1.20-200 in 220 IP
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| Recommended Draft Position: 24 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
34 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 178 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
I think we got a pretty good look at Reynolds' upside last season -- .260-98-44-102-24. That's going to be tough to top, but we now know what he's capable of. .260-100-45-110-20 in 580 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Potential bust factor. There's a good chance that Reynolds won't match the speed numbers and will need to keep his average at that .260 mark to truly be effective. Also stay away if your league counts strikeouts. .235-85-35-90-10 in 540 AB |
Analysis:
Reynolds finally put it all together in 2009 with a monstrous season. I have trouble believing he'll post the same kind of gaudy numbers again in 2010, but he should be useful nonetheless. He trended down towards the end of the season, posting only 8 HR and 3 SB after August 17th, which leads me to believe the speed numbers may have been an aberration. He'll still be an excellent source of power from your corner position, but remember, a lot of his value is wrapped up in his speed numbers, which he may have trouble replicating. He's going to be overrated coming into the year, so avoid the temptation of spending one of your first five picks on him. Don't pay for one huge season when there are other, more proven players that you can get for better value. .250-95-40-100-15 in 570 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 28 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 186 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Zimmerman took a huge step forward in 2009 and has pushed his way into the top-5 at third base. Zimmerman's 2009 was great, but a slight improvement again this year will push him into the top-20 overall players. in .295-105-35-105-3 in 610 AB
Upside: .300-115-35-115-3 |
Negatives/Downside:
Don't expect Zimmerman to terrorize the base paths. He stole just two bases in 2009. .280-90-25-95-0 in 570 AB
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Analysis:
Zimmerman is near the top of a position that does not reek of depth this season, and it's pushing his value through the roof. You'll need to spend a late second/early third round pick to acquire his services in 2010. He's a four category player who will make any team instantly better. If you can get him at his current draft position, he'll more than live up to expectations. .290-100-30-100-0 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 29 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 146 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Things couldn't have gone better for V-Mart in 2009. He bounced back from a disappointing 2008 and was dealt out of Cleveland to the Red Sox, where he'll have ample RBI opportunities and score a lot of runs. A full year in Boston could result in career highs in runs, home runs, and RBI. V-Mart is an elite option at catcher. .300-90-25-100-0 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Whenever a player has a down year like Martinez did in 2008, at least some concern exists that another poor season is a possibility. While Martinez's 2008 can be explained by the injuries he struggled with that season, the chance of another injury does linger, especially since Martinez will be play primarily behind the plate in 2010. .275-80-15-90-0 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Martinez does qualify as an injury risk in 2010, but the reward of having a catcher that can produce like Martinez outweighs the risk. Filling one of your catcher's spots with Martinez is a smart move in 2010. .290-85-20-95-0 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 30 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 140 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Sizemore is entering his age 27 season, and all indications are that his elbow and other issues have been resolved. He had improved his strikeout rate prior to 2009, and for all the difficulties of 2009, he maintained that improved rate (down to 5:1 from a more dangerous 4:1). Likewise his groundball, flyball and contact rates were largely unchanged. Sizemore didn't take a step back -- he was "just" hurt (tell that to the commish in your money league). That means a great opportunity for you if he is healthy. We have Size going for $33 or 31st, but he's essentially the same player that was the first outfielder taken in many, if not most leagues last year. While due to batting average concerns we couldn't see him as a better prospect than Braun or Kemp for this season, there's no question that if he returned to his 30+/30+ levels, he would earn first-round money. And other than health, there appears to be nothing to keep him from doing so. .290-100-30-100-35 in 650 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The Russell Branyan signing doesn't in any way fix the potential context problems that all Cleveland hitters will face (including everyone's darling pick Choo). Michael Brantley brings considerable on-base skills to the team, but he has struggled the first time through in both double- and triple-A, and there's every possibility that he will do the same in the show, in which case Sizemore might have less attractive options hitting in front of him (or he even gets moved to the front of the order). It's also not uncommon for players with this type of ailment to lose power. .265-70-20-70-20 in 450 AB |
Analysis:
This is Sizemore's age-27 season, and none of his secondary numbers reflect any diminution of his considerable skills despite a lost season due to injuries. Assuming he is healthy (and all indications are that he will be) he represents a high-end power/speed combination. Batting average is always a concern with Sizemore, but other than last year his career low is .268. That's not a plus, but it's not a huge minus.
The question here is context. The Indians look like a team with a whole lot of nothing on base unless Michael Brantley can succeed right away at the big league level. Other than Shin-Soo Choo, there are no "plus" on-base players and the signing of Russell Branyan is not going to help this. The days of Travis Hafner and V-Mart in their prime and on the Tribe are over. Whatever Sizemore does, it will be without a lot of help. Even with an ideal lineup for Sizemore, with Brantley and Cabrera in front and Choo behind, it's hard to put together enough runs to move his runs and RBI from good up to excellent. .275-95-28-95-35 in 625 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 31 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 167 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Greinke may not reach the levels of a 2.16 ERA again, but even a slight drop off will still have him among the league's best fantasy pitchers. 18-0-2.60-1.10-240 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
His biggest negative is what he did last season. He's currently going for too much in drafts, leaving comparable pitchers to be taken at a better value. 13-0-3.30-1.30-200 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Greinke has come a long way in his 6 seasons, from being a 21 year old rookie in 2004 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, to a horrible sophomore campaign which saw him post a 5-17 record, 5.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, to almost being completely out of baseball in '06 with personal issues, and then coming back to pitch two very good seasons in 2007 and in 2008 when he went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 183 K in 202 IP. Then he put it all together for one of the best fantasy seasons in recent memory, winning the CY Young in the process. Because of this, Greinke will be way over-valued, as you'll be paying for last season's numbers that he may have trouble replicating. He'll be fine as your fantasy ace, but there's better value to be had. 15-0-3.00-1.20-225 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 27 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
33 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 190 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Sandoval is only an elite contributor in average, but still provides enough HR, R, and RBI to make an impact across four categories. .330-90-30-100-5 in 585 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Somehow he was able to swipe five bags last season -- don't expect that again. .300-80-20-90-0 in 560 AB |
Analysis:
Sandoval will be among fantasy's best third baseman, and his average draft position is showing it. The 23-year old took a luge leap forward last season and may not see that kind of growth again in 2010. He'll need to significantly improve his numbers again to out-perform his current draft spot. Don't overspend for him. .320-85-25-95-3 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 32 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
32 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 97 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
No one in the majors does more with less than Pedroia. What Pedroia lacks in raw talent, he makes up for with effort. Hitting in the two-hole in the potent Sox line-up will help Pedroia keep pace with his 2009, during which he scored 115 runs and stole 20 bases. While his 2009 season wasn't on par with his MVP 2008 season, he really only saw a significant dip in average and a slight drop in RBI. To say 2009 was a true disappointment unfairly takes away from what was in actuality a very good season. .315-115-15-75-20 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
The 30 point dip in average Pedroia experienced in 2009 as compared to 2008 is concerning, even if he did finish at nearly .300. A drop from 83 RBI in 2008 to 72 in 2009 is also a concern. It looks like Pedroia will always chase that magical 2008 season, and his 2009 stat line is more in line with what to expect from him. .290-100-10-65-10 in 590 AB |
Analysis:
Perhaps it was a slight disappointment, but Pedroia's 2009 season was still extremely good. In fact, I like him more as someone to target this season since the inflated expectations from his 2008 season will no longer be hanging over him. .300-110-15-70-15 in 620 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 34 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
32 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 163 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
At his best, Phillips will fill up all five categories. He's not elite in any one, but is very hard to find a player of such balance. .280-85-25-100-30 in 585 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If you are looking an elite source of a certain category, look elsewhere. Phillips is tailor-made for teams that build with balanced players. .270-75-18-85-20 in 560 AB |
Analysis:
Phillips remains a stud player at a position that usually lacks depth (second base). Although he's been trending down in home runs for the last three seasons, Phillips remains the most reliable power option from the position behind Kinsler and Utley and is a safe source of speed. There's no question Phillips will hit the 20/20 club again in 2010, maybe even 25/25. He's the perfect player for anyone who likes to build teams on balance. Phillips will come at a price -- anything after the third round should be considered a steal. He may not be truly elite at his position, but his consistency elevates him in a class above the Pedroias, Canos, and Hills of the world. .275-80-20-90-25 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 35 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
32 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 129 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
CC's first year with the Yanks would have to qualify as a success. After all, he won 19 games and was amongst the AL leaders in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. Pitching for the World Champs guarantees close to twenty wins again, and 200 strikeouts is well within reach for CC. 20-0-3.10-1.10-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The move from the NL to AL caused CC's numbers to go from ridiculous in 2008 to just really good in 2009. He saw his ERA and WHIP rise and his strikeout total dip in 2009. Expect numbers more like his 2009 totals than his incredible 2008. Pitching in the AL is just that much more difficult than pitching in the NL. 15-0-3.50-1.20-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
CC still qualifies as a fantasy ace and is about as reliable as they come. As long as you don't go wild and chase the numbers he put up with the Brewers, CC will make you happy in 2010. 20-0-3.35-1.15-205 in 235 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 33 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
32 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 112 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Except for an injury plagued 2007, Jason Bay has delivered at least 101-31-101 every season since 2005 (and hit 26 dingers in 120 games the year before in his first season as a full-timer). He's also delivered double digit steals each year (2007 excepted). While his batting average has been all over the map, Bay has delivered exactly what was advertised season-in and season-out -- power, runs and some bonus steals.
Bay moves from Fenway (but he hit more home runs on the road last season) into a Mets lineup that should at least be healthier than what it was last season (how could it not be?). Despite all the talk that the Metropolitans' new home is depressing offense, in fact, the Mets ranked higher in runs scored at home than on the road. With part of the center field wall being lowered from 16' to 8', perhaps even the home run rates will rebound a bit.
This will be Bay's age-31 season (turning 32 in Sept), and there is no reason to think he will get many fewer opportunities to do damage for his owners. .285-105-30-110-10 in 575 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Despite averaging over 150 games played each year over the last five campaigns, Bay has been nagged by knee and shoulder woes his entire career. His strikeout rates have always been ominous, and they leaped to 30.5% in 2009, his worst marker in five seasons. The season after his previous high water mark on total strikeouts was the 2007 season, where he posted a line of .247-78-21-84-4 in 538 AB. That's his approximate downside in 2010: .250-80-20-85-5 in 530 AB
We don't anticipate that moving back to the Senior circuit after a bit more than a season will affect Bay adversely, but the Met's lineup is weaker than the Red Sox and even if the hitting woes at Citi are exaggerated,it is still not Fenway. As with all hitters of this type, the increase in srikeouts may presage a decline .260-90-24-90-5. 525ABs |
Analysis:
Jason Bay has earned fantasy owners quite a lot over the past five seasons as one of the most consistent 30-100 type outfielders over the period. That he runs a little and runs efficiently has been a nice little bonus for Bay owners. An old rule of thumb says that the later that a player comes up the earlier he burns out and while that may be true of the general population, it's mainly because in general the players who get called up early are the better players. When a good player, like Bay, arrive late (and to be fair, he was 24) there's no real reason to think he'll fade early. Bay has largely been a top notch offensive performer and, despite all the gloom and doom talk, is coming off career highs in both home runs and RBI. Most of the home runs came from on the road, so it is not solely due to Fenway.
The two most important points here are the different context with a hopefully healthy Mets squad and pitcher's park. And the risk associated with Bay due to his injury history and elevated strikeouts from a year ago. We can't recommend reaching for Bay, but in early drafts he is going at a discount, sometimes a severe discount. You'd want to make sure to manage your other risks, but if healthy Bay represents second round talent. .275-95-28-100-10 in 570 AB
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| Recommended Draft Position: 37 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
31 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 108 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Youk offers plenty of balance, which is a good thing for any fantasy team. He'll produce very good totals in average, runs, homeruns, and RBI, and he'll even steal a handful of bases. .310-100-30-105-5 in 560 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Youk lacks the upside that some of the other players that you can grab for about the same price or at the same spot in your draft have. He is already very good, but I don't think he's going to get any better. He is a very safe pick with little upside or downside. .295-85-20-90-3 in 480 AB |
Analysis:
Hitting in the heart of the Red Sox order will guarantee Youk plenty of opportunities to drive-in and score runs. While you'll likely want to use him at third, he should qualify at first as well, giving him added flexibility. Nothing flashy, but indeed dependable. .305-95-28-100-5 in 530 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 39 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
31 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 170 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Ethier has increased his home run totals each year that he has played, posting 31 in 2009. Part of that is increased at-bats, but Ethier also put the ball in the air with greater regularity -- a significant 0.92 GB/FB, compared with 1.3 in the previous two seasons. Almost 10% more of his AB resulted in fly balls, and that means more home runs. Whether he can carry that over (or if it is desirable, see: negatives) is another question, but the extra fly balls came mainly at the expense of line drives, so presumably a regression would mean a return to a higher batting average. Ethier drove in 106 runs despite batting only .250 with RISP. It's hard to predict RISP, but were he to increase his efficiency there, a high RBI total would follow. Ethier turns 28 in April, so he is in the prime of his productive career. He's maddeningly inconsistent, but is so good (21 home runs and 57 RBI in 78 games from June to August last season) when hot that one can afford to wait out the lean stretches. .270-95-35-110-5 in 600 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
Much of Ethier's value is predicated on two things -- his ability to stay in the middle of the batting order and his ability to put the ball in the air. The Dodgers are notorious in in using different lineups daily, and with Ethier's propensity to disappear, that could mean many at bats in non-productive slots. If he returns to his previous fly ball rates, he becomes a 20 home run, .290 hitter, rather than a .270-something, 30 home run hitter -- a trade-off few fantasy owners would take. .280-75-20-80-5 in 525 AB |
Analysis:
Many people remarked on the contrast between Andre Ethier's performance with Manny Ramirez than without him in 2008 and predicted similar results for 2009. Owners were generally rewarded for doing so, however Ethier had an even larger inconsistency in previous seasons without Manny being involved. Ethier is capable of performing with the best sluggers out there for long stretches of time, followed by weeks and weeks of lack of production. On balance, the 28 year-old (in April) will produce season-end numbers that make him just a rung below the top groups of outfielders. Just remember to carry plenty of antacid.
Ethier's numbers against left-handers are very poor and have declined each year to a sub-Mendoza performance last season with a correspondingly bad .629 OPS. Although in general it's not a good practice to consider "protection" in real baseball or fantasy, for players with Ethier's increasingly extreme split, he's a lot more likely to find pitches in RBI situations with a big right-handed hitter hitting behind him (and here were are talking about Manny Ramirez). Placement in the order will be very important for Ethier
Watch also Ethier's fly ball rate (use the fly balls separated from line drives), as this should give you a good idea whether Ethier will be the .300/20 home run version or the .275/30 home run version. .275-95-30-105-5 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 36 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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31 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 145 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Morneau will slug with the best of them and end up with elite total in HR and RBI. He'll score a very respectable amount of runs (lowest in last four years was 84) and could even chip in with an excellent average. .300-100-40-120-0 in 595 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Morneau's back will be a concern coming into the year, we'll have to wait and see how much this affects his power. He won't do anything in the speed department (4 career steals). He hit .274 last season and will need to see that average go back up to his 2008 and 2006 levels, when he hit .300+. .270-80-28-90-0 in 520 AB |
Analysis:
Although the depth at first base is pretty deep, Morneau represents a really nice value in 2010. Coming off of a back injury that ended his season prematurely, Morneau seems to be flying under the radar going into 2010. Before the injury, Morneau piled up 30 HR and 100 RBI in only 135 games, which had him on pace to be a top-15 player. If he can get his average back up to the .300+ level, there will be little distinction between the Canadian slugger and the higher end first basemen (Cabrera, Fielder and Teixeria). .280-90-33-110-0 in 580 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 38 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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31 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 226 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
McCann followed up his stellar 2008 season with another strong effort in '09, smacking out 21 homers and plating 94 RBI while batting .281. Though he has played four full seasons in the bigs, McCann is still just 26 years old and should continue to produce at a high level for years to come. His 94 RBI last year was a career best, and he is a virtual lock to be right around 20 homers and 90 ribbies again in 2010. .300-75-28-100-5 in 520 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While that .281 last year looks nice, it represented a 20-point decline from the .301 McCann batted in 2008. His walk rate, slugging percentage and OPS all took a sharp drop as well -- leading many to wonder whether he'll ever approach the .333 he stroked out back in 2006. .275-55-20-80-0 in 470 AB |
Analysis:
McCann is a solid and reliable producer, but may not be worth his price in single-catcher leagues. There are several backstops available late in the draft that are capable of launching 20 bombs and knocking in 70-80 runs. Don't overpay for McCann, but he is a true "worry free" option as your Fantasy catcher. .290-65-25-90-3 in 500 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 43 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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30 |
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20 (1) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 92 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Roberts is one of the fastest second basemen out there, and he pairs that with an elite source of runs. In an improved Baltimore line-up, he could even improve on those totals. .290-105-18-75-33 in 625 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
At age 32, he's starting to get long in the tooth. Look for slight drop in power numbers and possibly stolen bases. .280-95-13-65-25 in 595 AB |
Analysis:
Brian Roberts is not quite an elite second baseman, but he's definitely close. Roberts will be close to the league lead in runs, and with 72 HR+2B, he'll be one of the top OPS performers among speedsters. He's a perfect compliment to a team that takes a lot of power early on. .285-100-15-70-30 in 610 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 41 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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30 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 180 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Every time Werth has been healthy, nearly 20% of his flyballs have turned into home runs, around double the league averages. Despite a career high 156 strikeouts, he actually improved his strikeout rate and walked 91 times vs. a previous career high of 57. Werth is a reliable source of additional steals. Good park, good lineup -- what's not to like? .275-100-35-100-20 in 575 AB
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Negatives/Downside:
This is the longest that Werth has played without a major injury. Although he improved his strikeout rate, 156 strikeouts is a pretty heavy number. It's not unusual for a player with this many strikeouts and of his age to decline and sometimes rapidly. .250-75-25-75-10 in 500 AB |
Analysis:
Werth is one of those players who, due to his previous injury history, generates wildly divergent projections if you stick with your formulas. Werth had 571 AB last season, yet most published projections have him getting 450-500 ABs. Since the Phillies would love for Werth to get another 571 ABs, in essence, what my learned colleagues are saying is that he plays himself out of AB, except they are not, since most of them are projecting that Werth will produce at an equal or even higher rate of Home Runs and RBI. Or that he will get injured, which given how many years he battled with hand and wrist issues, is certainly possible. Of course, the projection isn't based on someone sitting down and guessing that he will miss 20 games for this- that- or the other-thing. Instead it's just an average of his previous playing time with various adjustments thrown on.
The reason I mention this is that the Phillies might give him more than the three games of rest he got last season, but it's highly unlikely they will give him 23 games of rest. So it's a better than fair bet that he'll get last years AB or he'll spend time on the DL, in which case you'll be able to slot in at least replacement level production if your league set up allows.
I've been a big fan of Jayson Werth since that first half season for the Dodgers in 2004 when he hit 16 home runs in 89 games. That number is real. In his five seasons where he has significant playing time, his HR/FB was under 18.3 (about double an average player) once, and that was the 2007 year when he was trying to play through both knee and wrist problems. .265-90-30-90-15 550ABs |
| Recommended Draft Position: 42 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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30 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 108 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Jeter's incredible 2009, one of the best seasons of his career, quieted a lot of critics who claimed that he was start to deteriorate. Jeter proved that even into his mid-30s he is capable of posting huge numbers and still an elite option at SS. .330-105-15-65-25 in 620 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
He isn't getting any younger, and, despite his great 2009, has reached the age when most players start to rapidly decline. 2009 was the last great season we will see from Jeter. His home run and stolen base totals are due for a decline. .305-90-10-55-15 in 550 AB |
Analysis:
35-year-olds don’t get better -- they have very good seasons. 2009 was a very good season for Jeter. Yes, he could have another very good season, but it is far more likely that his 2010 numbers more closely resemble his 2007 and 2008 seasons, which are still pretty darn good. If someone is willing to pay for his 2009 totals, be more more than happy to let them. .320-100-13-60-20 in 600 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 44 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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30 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 201 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Haren is an elite source of ERA, K and WHIP. His ratios can stabilize your totals if you want to stream pitchers through your line-up. 18-0-3.10-1.05-215 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Aside from his usual second-half drop-off, Haren is very unlucky when it comes to getting wins. Getting shoddy support from an anemic Diamondbacks offense doesn't help either. He's never eclipsed 16 wins in a season, despite the numbers of a 20-game winner. 13-0-3.30-1.15-200 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Dan Haren is a roto king. He really does it all -- at least pre-All-Star break. His high inning total allows his tremendous ratios (ERA & WHIP) to be more valuable, and his 8.75 K/9 is among the league leaders. The best strategy with Haren would be to expend a high draft pick on him, and then trade him when he's named to the All-star team. His post-break number have plunged for three consecutive years. While he still turns in some good performances, what you can get for him mid-way will be worth more than keeping him. 15-0-3.20-1.10-210 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 40 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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30 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 124 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Hill is a contact hitter who was able to turn his doubles into home runs last season. Hill's power totals from last year put him at the top of the long-fly list for second basemen. If everything breaks right for Hill in 2010, he'll have a season that resembles his 2009 line. .285-100-30-105-5 in 650 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Hill is coming off a massive season, and a step back is more likely than a step forward in 2010. Expect a drop in home runs, runs and RBI this season. .275-85-20-85-5 in 600 AB |
Analysis:
Because of the shallow talent pool that is second base, Hill is pretty hot commodity. If he could replicate his monstrous 2009 -- 36 HR, 108 RBI -- he'll be worth all the attention. Problem is, I just don't see that happening. His bread and butter are those power numbers, which frankly, he won't replicate. Without those numbers, he's essentially Jose Lopez. Not bad, but not worthy of a top-four round selection. Hill had never eclipsed 17 HR before 2009, so it's hard to believe that he can keep up this torrid pace. If he can get to 25 this year, it will be an accomplishment. There are safer second basemen out there -- take one of them instead. .280-90-25-90-5 in 630 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 50 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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29 |
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8 (1) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 124 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lind can carry you in RBI and HR, while making a nice impact in average and runs as well. .310-95-43-125-0 in 595 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency. Many question Lind's ability to match his breakout 2009 total. Speed. He has none. .290-85-33-105-0 in 570 AB |
Analysis:
Lind had a breakout 2009, showing an ability to hit for average and power, which makes him a very valuable commodity. Expect Lind to fall anywhere from the late-third to early-sixth round. There are a lot of mixed feelings on him. Some believe that Lind's .301-35-114 is a ceiling for his numbers, but at age 26, I find that hard to believe. Despite no line-up projection, Lind should improve on these numbers as he enters his prime. .300-90-38-115-0 in 590 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 48 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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29 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 106 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Zobrist's power surge continued last season, as the 28-year-old mashed 27 homers and plated 91 RBI. As an added bonus, he swiped 17 bases and drew 91 walks en route to a .405 OBP. While some might be leery of Zobrist's once-light stick coming to life, remember that his power numbers jumped sharply way back in the second half of the '08 season and may be traced to a tweak he made in his swing. Zobrist should once again bat in the middle of the Rays order, and he should keep running as long as Joe Maddon is his manager. He should also be eligible at shortstop, second and the outfield in most leagues. .295-100-28-100-20 in 570 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
Tweak, schmeak -- Zobrist had hit just 15 homers and stolen only seven bases in 145 games prior to his breakout 2009 season. While he may be worth a later round pick, his current price makes him too much of a risk. .275-80-18-80-10 in 490 AB |
Analysis:
We think Zobrist will sustain his power numbers, and throw in a good amount of steals as part of the bargain. Check your league roster rules to determine whether Zobrist is eligible at a given position. .285-90-23-90-18 in 540 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 51 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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29 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 90 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Only a three category contributor but will have a huge impact across runs, average and stolen bases. He's a nice compliment to a power heavy team. .330-100-10-50-30 in 630 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
If you need power help, look elsewhere. He's aging, so possible decreased speed or an elevated chance of injury hampers his value. .300-85-3-40-20 in 590 AB |
Analysis:
Ichiro is back at the top of the order and will be a great asset to any fantasy team. What he lacks in power and run producing prowess, he makes it all up in runs, steals, and especially average. I say 'especially average' because his elevated average is extra important because of his volume of at bats. He may be getting up there in years, but still consider him a top-10 outfielder in mixed leagues. .310-90-5-45-25 in 630 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 47 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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29 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Hitters
Hits: 107 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cano finally busted out in 2009, displaying the talent everyone knew he possessed. He's entering his 27-year old season, a magic number in fantasy baseball, so another huge step forward is a strong possibility. This could be the last year you don't have to pay through the roof for Cano. .320-105-28-95-5 in 635 AB |
Negatives/Downside:
While his 2009 season was a nice step forward, it's always nice to see a young player put together a couple of strong seasons before you feel completely comfortable with them. If that's the worst I can think of for negatives on Cano, you know he's someone to own in 2010. .300-90-20-80-3 in 580 AB |
Analysis:
Cano was helped by the Yankees’ new ballpark, a left-handed hitters dream, in 2009. The Yankees lineup always provides a ton of opportunities to score and drive in runs as well. Look for his 2010 season to be quite similar to his 2009 campaign. .310-100-25-90-5 in 615 AB |
| Recommended Draft Position: 49 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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29 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Fantasy Baseball » Pitchers
Hits: 206 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Santana is only 31, and prior to the elbow woes retuning, he was en route to his best season since his tenure with Minnesota. Through May, Santana had struck out 86 batters in 66 innings with an ERA below 2.00. He's not the same thrower he was as a kid in Minnie, but he's clearly still a top pitcher when healthy. Even after the elbow started acting up, Santana was still, except for a couple of starts in June, a perfectly usable fantasy pitcher. Santana's stuff is so good that he was able to turn from a devastating strikeout style (withstanding 70%+ fly balls plus line drives) to a more ground ball oriented approach as the wheels didn't quite come off in July and August.
Santana is healthy, despite a report of Santana icing down his elbow (as pitchers do after workouts) causing his ADP to drop through the floor. Citi is a great field for Santana, as it depressed the one negative of the fly ball style -- the home run. Even in an "off" year, Santana posted a 2.43-1.10 in Citi, and that's not too bad, I would say. 18-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Santana was a real trooper last season, pitching with an obvious arm problem for a couple of months before shutting it down as the Mets finally succumbed to the freakish number of injuries. The real concern here remains health. After posting six straight seasons with K rates well over a K an inning, but 230 IP each year, Santana moved to the NL, where one could expect that facing the pitcher, he would have even more success. He was very good of course, but the K rate dropped below 8 (often a sign of injury or coming injury) and, well, here we are. 10-0-3.75-1.25-130 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
In 2001, Pedro Martinez experienced arm woes and was only able to tally 116+ IP. In the process, he threw up some freakish strikeout totals over the first two months of the season -- 121 K in 81 IP, which was well over his career rate. June went to hell and, unlike Santana, Pete was unable to continue much farther, making four starts in June and then a handful at the end of the year. It's eerily familiar to Santana's situation last season (Pedro was 29, Santana 30 coming into last season) with years of overuse, an initial period of extreme strikeouts (see positives), and then injury.
The good news is that Pedro came back the following year to post one of his top two or three years, going 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 239 strikeouts. You'll want to watch Johan's fly ball rates (in this case going down probably being an indication that he is switching pitches to save his arm), but there's every precedent here for excellence.
Although there are significant questions in the bullpen, and defensive metrics distinctly do not like this team (Jason Bay is rated as one of the worst outfielders, and even David Wright, who has such a good reputation, showed up poorly on the defensive metrics in 2009), there's every indication Santana will perform in this park. Moderate your bid, but he is currently going at a bargain price for his potential. 15-0-3.20-1.15-210 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 46 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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29 |
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0.0 (0) |
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